TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$169,865
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$169,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,865 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 710 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc658…b784backed Yes40c7,515$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,997.881346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes46c5,749$2,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,621.122236.4%8 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No52c4,875$2,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,323.111241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes45c4,311$1,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,939.471118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked No48c3,408$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,764.63580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick34cpaid+222.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No55c2,927$1,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.314938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb4…3b72backed No48c2,854$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1982…f55ebacked Yes52c2,854$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1744…1d2abacked Yes49c2,597$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No49c2,487$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,264.99850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No62c2,450$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.941931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69aa…8847backed Yes54c2,299$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No56c2,272$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.384930.6%15 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe858…8573backed Yes43c2,210$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.160%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked No56c2,154$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.946139.3%24 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6442…2163backed Yes51c1,936$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-53.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e93…4325backed Yes48c1,584$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.0230%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes52c1,500$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb645…4845backed No48c1,384$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8200…f63dbacked Yes52c1,384$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes41c1,199$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.652832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceb3…e5cdbacked Yes52c1,163$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60030%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No52c1,132$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.2610529.5%31 W · 74 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes53c1,111$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.18616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c1,095$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.4422640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes42c1,072$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.826533.8%22 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43f6…d327backed Yes42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b9…b99fbacked No58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f1…cbb2backed No58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x940c…7786backed No60c999$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1108…1d41backed Yes40c999$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7892…a570backed Yes42c949.97$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa247…8678backed Yes53c930$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f6…6710backed No47c930$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4208…8897backed No47c930$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d3…0c9bbacked Yes53c930$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed No73c899.99$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.18911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-84.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes43c850.99$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.664748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked Yes60c840$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No57c756.03$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.23977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No71c741.84$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.382240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes46c739.34$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.724615.2%7 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e16…ce1ebacked Yes52c686.37$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14fc…0dc6backed No48c686.37$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes48c666$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…2e90backed Yes42c650$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No47c628.86$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.556746.3%31 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No49c605$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.85563.6%35 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x30bc…2529backed Yes52c600$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.95742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+255.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked No46c600$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes47c599.99$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2843228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes45c538.72$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.5216334.4%56 W · 107 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes57c523.98$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-62.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes45c522.14$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.163641.7%15 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes50c500.77$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.841631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501250%6 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba1…2af6backed Yes51c500$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.4950%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc427…481ebacked Yes51c491.32$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+48.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes48c486.08$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.3514835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes40c479.99$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7841…6352backed Yes47c461.83$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked No45c433.11$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.212070%14 W · 6 L+4.3wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+93.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes47c430.77$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.473026.7%8 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick18cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No51c397.97$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.817844.9%35 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb353…57fabacked Yes42c396.98$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ef0…a56ebacked Yes58c392.26$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b8…131cbacked Yes57c360.22$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20530%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No48c351.37$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.145554.5%30 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeac4…7599backed Yes51c350.13$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91e1…1282backed Yes57c347.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-45.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes36c342$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.12944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d00…d499backed Yes35c339.17$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-67.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No51c314.8$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.811855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+40.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed No60c300$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1203935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad85…78fcbacked No59c296.74$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.4580%4 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.53per pick27cpaid+269.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd064…4c6dbacked Yes36c280.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No49c278.87$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.81963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+52.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed No45c277.55$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.791163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cb9…3776backed No59c256.1$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8a…36babacked Yes47c255.32$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes45c250$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.51010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes50c248.08$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.041546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1dd…47ccbacked Yes52c247.35$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+257.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes41c238.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.081533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe14…a3f4backed No50c211.38$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c4d…0b9abacked Yes43c207.49$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.94825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb36a…943dbacked No53c203.24$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed No44c200$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+184.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94d6…9ab8backed Yes42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b4…d32ebacked Yes51c197.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b69…cf45backed Yes53c196.62$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe367…f235backed No56c195$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+128.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x766f…3b09backed No50c194.2$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c6…c711backed Yes51c192.29$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66eb…ed85backed Yes38c192.05$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb01…665abacked Yes39c191.95$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1612…9219backed Yes54c190.76$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8237…be01backed Yes50c190.3$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed Yes32c190$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x514f…7bb7backed Yes53c186.25$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.