TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will 'The Tortured Poets Department' win Album of the Year?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,165
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,165 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x24c5…923dbacked Yes22c7,469$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,616.69229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-62.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed No69c5,082$3,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,564757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+83.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes6c4,906$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.031010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed Yes31c4,501$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.73922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid+1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba1…2af6backed Yes11c3,602$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.5750%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes6c3,513$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.734615.2%7 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Yes6c3,479$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick34cpaid+222.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe858…8573backed Yes10c2,210$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23260%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked No74c2,143$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.24540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No70c2,078$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.491931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick23cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes25c2,072$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.2810529.5%31 W · 74 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No77c1,999$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.214938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705f…8814backed Yes38c1,846$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x531a…da3cbacked No67c1,840$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes6c1,643$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.57633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-47.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes6c1,628$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.172240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked Yes7c1,471$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001315.4%2 W · 11 L-5.3wins-0.41per pick56cpaid-55.9%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes6c1,418$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.763026.7%8 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick18cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22b7…4bccbacked Yes7c1,404$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes5c1,388$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.91241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x577c…7dd1backed Yes32c1,213$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+74.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No69c1,174$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid+41.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes8c1,130$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+47.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes33c1,056$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.551070%7 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick38cpaid+107.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes6c1,024$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.881136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes7c939.17$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.032611.5%3 W · 23 L-4.9wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-70.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes32c870$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.49844.9%44 W · 54 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes16c829.05$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.822825%7 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c5…0166backed Yes7c800.2$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.371118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e4e…a18ebacked Yes9c748.7$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4760%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed Yes32c675.04$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes11c668$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.984930.6%15 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30bc…2529backed Yes14c650$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+255.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes5c614.66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3414835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcdd…b038backed Yes8c610.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf806…2d90backed Yes7c569.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes6c522.41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.012030%6 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed No71c514.91$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.94944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+45.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes5c467.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc326…48adbacked Yes8c399.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63f9…0021backed Yes8c378.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes25c365.47$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.982416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes7c364.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257139.4%28 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes7c331.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210630.2%32 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+45.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes28c293.13$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.08650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c09…dfb9backed Yes11c279.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe50e…e9afbacked Yes10c272.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes13c258.92$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.66714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-42.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No75c245.97$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.22977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+29.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes6c244.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.755836.2%21 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc490…6507backed Yes13c235.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b4…d32ebacked Yes9c220.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked No69c217.39$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.39633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.63228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca03…9e20backed Yes16c200$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e5a…563dbacked Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.32425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes6c191.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.973528.6%10 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed Yes25c190.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.79425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked No65c176.89$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17dc…aff8backed Yes6c173.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes30c172.5$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.986746.3%31 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x596a…1219backed Yes10c150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72e4…df9ebacked No70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.86540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes32c125$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+121.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x641a…6884backed Yes34c117.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes12c117$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.04333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+44.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes32c110$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid+19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes12c108$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.966533.8%22 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6803…8d2bbacked Yes19c106.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2015…3fbfbacked No69c103.8$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+306.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x320a…7015backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff2b…0c88backed No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-69.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69a5…3f3cbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick5cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+149.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x816d…944abacked Yes34c89.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No60c82.18$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.876435.9%23 W · 41 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+37.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5ad…fd50backed No67c59.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc223…1cbfbacked Yes37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90e9…de83backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Yes32c46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd37…f172backed No69c43.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91de…0b43backed Yes34c31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ca…f918backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x179e…551ebacked No80c23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3447…4d3cbacked No79c21$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.