Music · resolved market
Will 'The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess' win Album of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55a0f111cc16487013ff5f93e3351f3acfceae55d9bcc2f32a17eb77310d54aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 4c | 2,773$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe858…8573backed Yes | 5c | 2,215$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 2,071$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb012…ce7fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,720$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 2c | 1,520$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 2c | 1,450$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 4c | 1,368$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 3c | 1,313$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,292$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,135$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 68 | 0%0 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x809f…ad08backed Yes | 2c | 1,104$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,056$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 999.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 998.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 4c | 877.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 3c | 871.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 3c | 741.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…8fdbbacked Yes | 2c | 729.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba1…2af6backed Yes | 4c | 703.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…ad71backed Yes | 2c | 666.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 3c | 664$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Yes | 3c | 643.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc28…68a4backed Yes | 9c | 558.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 4c | 542$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b651backed Yes | 5c | 516.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 4c | 464.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85be…4d1abacked Yes | 5c | 463.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e0…b444backed Yes | 5c | 407.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d6…9ab8backed Yes | 4c | 342.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…2bfcbacked Yes | 5c | 321.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 7c | 302.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 4c | 292.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…cb26backed Yes | 7c | 245.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…3ef3backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…ac2ebacked Yes | 66c | 151.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed No | 31c | 116.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…b35cbacked Yes | 20c | 103.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…64b3backed Yes | 13c | 84.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc87…9e25backed Yes | 30c | 68.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess' win Album of the Year?this page
- Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year?No won
- Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year?Yes won
- Will 'Djesse Vol. 4' win Album of the Year?No won
- Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year?No won
- Will 'New Blue Sun' win Album of the Year?No won
- Will 'Short n' Sweet' win Album of the Year?No won
- Will 'The Tortured Poets Department' win Album of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.