Music · resolved market
Will 'Short n' Sweet' win Album of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b2fe04bdb10f05e665bdc84954c34edc1a26642a352651bd61b428b6e73eee4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e4e…a18ebacked Yes | 3c | 8,917$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 3,097$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe17…dd5cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,076$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,973$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,816$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…28f0backed Yes | 3c | 2,781$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73de…e21cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,628$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 1c | 2,586$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe858…8573backed Yes | 3c | 2,210$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…cd40backed Yes | 2c | 2,050$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cd…b42abacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…30aebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…6a90backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 5c | 1,447$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,428$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 68 | 0%0 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d6…9ab8backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,101$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,067$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 935$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 878.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba1…2af6backed Yes | 2c | 683.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d00…d499backed Yes | 2c | 608.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…7bb7backed Yes | 2c | 607.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 2c | 517.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…0c88backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 455.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…cb26backed Yes | 4c | 412.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 410.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +311.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fee…708abacked Yes | 4c | 276$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e1…bcfabacked Yes | 7c | 210.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…a82cbacked Yes | 8c | 132.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5459…9b52backed No | 77c | 14.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Short n' Sweet' win Album of the Year?this page
- Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year?No won
- Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year?Yes won
- Will 'Djesse Vol. 4' win Album of the Year?No won
- Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year?No won
- Will 'New Blue Sun' win Album of the Year?No won
- Will 'The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess' win Album of the Year?No won
- Will 'The Tortured Poets Department' win Album of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.