TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x96b5…f5e7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
763
Categories scored
33
Categories below 50
24

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 36.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST16943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 169 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$735Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+36.1%+$264.99
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$62
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.2
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$298
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$494Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27.9%+$137.8
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,304Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66.2%+$863.19
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,338Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+36.6%+$489.36
Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,527Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,526.62
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$8,680Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$8,679.93
Will Trump cut corporate taxes in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$111.23
Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,332Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.1%+$654.53
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13,595Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+52.2%+$7,093.52
Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$819Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.1%+$230.37
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,176Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+27.6%+$324
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$53.51
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$15.75
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$170
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+107.8%+$241.82
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$7,985Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$4,115
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$322Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+86.3%+$278
Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,415Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+26.3%+$1,159.59
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23,248Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$23,247.51
Showing 25 of 169 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST7129.6%21 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 71 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+39.9%+$28.5
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$74
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+51.5%+$17
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will POTUS tweet 8-10 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$55.5
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$101.4
Will POTUS tweet less than 5 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$21.5
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$37.5
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$80.48
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$71
Will Elon tweet less than 200 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$114
Will Andrew Tate tweet 200-219 times Jan 24-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Andrew Tate tweet 280-299 times Jan 24-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20.55
Will Andrew Tate tweet 260-279 times Jan 24-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$11.66
Will Andrew Tate tweet less than 160 times Jan 24-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+25.4%+$55
Will POTUS tweet 10-14 times Jan 22-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+316.7%+$380
Will POTUS tweet 15-19 times Jan 22-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$104.94
Will POTUS tweet 20-24 times Jan 22-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$18.54
Will POTUS tweet less than 10 times Jan 22-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$150.6
Will Andrew Tate tweet 130-139 times Jan 10-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$24.84
Will Dittman tweet between 110 and 119 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$40.97
Will Dittman tweet 140 or more times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$11.84
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+227.9%+$277.98
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$110
Will Dittman tweet between 130 and 139 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$22.32
Showing 25 of 71 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST5832.8%19 W · 39 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-41.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
NFL — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chiefs Parlay - Chiefs win, Mahomes 225+ passing yards, Kelce 40+ receiving yardsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+56.3%+$72
Will Kirk Cousins get cut/traded by the Falcons?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$397
Will the Vikings trade JJ McCarthy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.05
Will Aaron Rodgers retire?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$11.4
Will Jalen Milroe be drafted in the First Round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$171.99
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$142
Will 1 QB get taken in the first 3 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+174.7%+$47.28
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.36
Will the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft get traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$238.37
Who will get drafted first: Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward?backed Sanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$222
Will the Vikings resign Sam Darnold?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$136
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$330.41
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 3 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$28.3
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 2 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Roddy Ricch perform during Super Bowl LIX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+78.6%+$44
Will Baby Keem perform during Super Bowl LIX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+135.4%+$97.04
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+39.9%+$114
Will Coca Cola run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$269
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 4 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$38.53
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 5 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$18.22
Which conference wins the Super Bowl?backed AFC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,007Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$1,006.83
Will Young Thug perform during Super Bowl LIX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+75.4%+$21.5
Will Schoolboy Q perform during Super Bowl LIX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+55.4%+$55.05
Will Mustard perform during Super Bowl LIX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$171.62
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 10 or more times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$174.64
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2025, EST5418.5%10 W · 44 L-5.7wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-58.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on February 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 37-38°F on February 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 35-36°F on February 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$40.1
Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC in Jan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10.7
Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$56
Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$5,785Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$5,784.5
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$335.05
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$45.1
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+181.7%+$129
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 44-45°F on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$48
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$54
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+192.7%+$78.94
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$28.02
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST+73.4%+$63.5
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on January 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+163.2%+$18.6
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on January 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$27.66
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on January 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$90.2
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 44-45°F on January 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$46.4
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on January 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on January 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 37-38°F on January 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$58
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST4922.4%11 W · 38 L-9.6wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-67.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
Middle East — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$672Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$672.21
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$485Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$484.93
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$145.99
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$225
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$4,264Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+85.3%+$3,635.89
Netanyahu out by 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,235Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.8%+$867.81
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$254.66
Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14,043Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+47.5%+$6,672.46
Israel parliament dissolves by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,214Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+25.9%+$315
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$862Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$861.8
Will Netanyahu meet with MBS before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.46
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,224Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+66.4%+$1,477.15
Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$3,362Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$3,362.36
Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,104Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$3,104.1
Will an EU nation recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$721Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$720.71
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by next Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$14.17
Will Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,377Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$2,376.8
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$18.86
Will Erdogan visit Syria by January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,324Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+25.2%+$585.03
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$791Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST-100%-$790.69
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$1,039.94
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$8,599Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$8,599.11
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,309Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+38.6%+$890.84
No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$637Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+58.1%+$370.13
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2025, EST3941%16 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 50 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$776Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+28.9%+$224
Will 52 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$227.75
Will 49 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Directorbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will 53 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$316
Will 51 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+366.3%+$707
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,025Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$1,024.71
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+602.1%+$1,414
Will 51 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$224.5
Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$233.35
Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$189.5
Will 55 or more Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$86.29
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,458Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+25.6%+$372.85
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$34,033Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+36.2%+$12,308.03
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+56.3%+$180
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$15.77
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+30.6%+$158.76
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+729.3%+$1,762.04
Will 51 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$511Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$511
Will 53 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$160.14
Will 54 or more Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$198.31
Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$5,065Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+56.1%+$2,841.96
Will 50 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$465Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$465.24
Will Cynthia Lummis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+49.3%+$99
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,193Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,192.9
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+53.8%+$70
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST3920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 62m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$165.98
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 57m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$170
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+47.7%+$64.6
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$62
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,158Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+254.1%+$2,941.98
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,565Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$2,565.39
Will "Wicked" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$333.36
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$743Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+310.5%+$2,306.99
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,452Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$2,451.57
Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$158.93
Will Brady Corbet win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "The Brutalist"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,651Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,651
Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Anora"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$731Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+228.3%+$1,668.94
Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 Oscars for "Emilia Pérez"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$35.89
Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$291.6
Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,046Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+25%+$512.17
Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$136.5
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$143
Will "A Real Pain" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$16.09
Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$285.18
Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,032Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+47.6%+$967.98
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $91m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$561Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$560.72
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $73-82m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$218.03
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $82-91m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+263.9%+$583.8
Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $35-40m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+733.3%+$88
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$5,127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$5,126.62
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$639Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+40.8%+$261
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,285Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+29.3%+$669.32
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,090Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+40.7%+$443.34
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,623Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,623.18
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,039Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$644.98
Will the SPD be part of the next German government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$5,428Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+25.5%+$1,381.81
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,172Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+545.8%+$6,399.17
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.31
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,876Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,876.11
Will Bloc Québécois win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$2,057Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,057.06
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$10,706Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$10,706.3
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$60,466Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60,465.57
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$10,934Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+29.5%+$3,227.93
Canada election called before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$4,517Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,517.38
Trudeau no confidence motion passes before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$4,930Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+39.8%+$1,962.89
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$131.51
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$28,873Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+32.6%+$9,405.61
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$21,716Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+32.3%+$7,010.34
Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$21,904Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$21,903.7
Will Siumut win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$71
Yoon released from custody before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,879Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,879.07
Will Maria Damanaki be next Greek President?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20.5
Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$3,073Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$3,073.1
Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$40.82
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
One Direction reunion in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+55.4%+$196.35
Selena Gomez married in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$550.2
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$169.4
Justin & Hailey Bieber divorce before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.67
Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$76
Will 'The Tortured Poets Department' win Album of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$13.6
Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+305.4%+$452
Will 'Hit Me Hard and Soft' win Album of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$284
Will 'Not Like Us' win Song of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+769.6%+$354
Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$754Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$753.6
Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$778Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$777.94
Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+454%+$327.8
Will Sabrina Carpenter win Best New Artist?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$389
Will Chappell Roan win Best New Artist?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,344Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+46.9%+$629.99
Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Best Country Album?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$596Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+34.2%+$204
Will 'Higher' win Best Country Album?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$49.5
Will 'Alligator Bites Never Heal' win Best Rap Album?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+101.9%+$397.78
Will 'We Don't Trust You' win Best Rap Album?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$338
Will "After Hours" by Kehlani win Best R&B Song?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$39.85
Will "Saturn" by SZA win Best R&B Song?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST+38.3%+$67.91
Will "Here We Go (Uh Oh)" by Coco Jones win Best R&B Song?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$22.34
Will "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" by Shaboozey win Best Country Song?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$759Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$758.71
Will "Texas Hold 'Em" by Beyoncé win Best Country Song?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$350
Will Playboi Carti release new album in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$38.2
Will Kendrick Lamar be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+141%+$234
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Waymo surpass Uber SF market share in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$695Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30.5%+$211.59
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,531Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.5%+$681.09
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.33
Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$84.6
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$772Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$772.31
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.86
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$922Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$921.8
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$914Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.3%+$286
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$307Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+34.5%+$106
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20.24
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Will DeepSeek be #1 model before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,343Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+30.1%+$704.99
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$333.01
Google forced to sell Chrome?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.64
DeepSeek V4 released before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+59.8%+$137.44
Will an open-source AI model become Top 3 this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$677Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+33%+$223.5
Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,749Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+166.9%+$4,589.16
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 before April? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+29.8%+$80.94
OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$377.2
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
Will Elon Musk visit Stargate Texas site before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$17.21
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,131Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$1,130.97
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$19.59
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$3,130Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$3,130.34
Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,577Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$1,576.51
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$816Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$816
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$564Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+41.8%+$235.99
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$4,950Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$4,950.41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,641Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,641.12
Will Trump disparage Zelenskyy on Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+31.6%+$3.6
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+91.9%+$95.8
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 25%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$69.9
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$12.6
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$122
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,075Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+80.4%+$1,668.46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$3,135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,135.25
Will Putin remain President of Russia through June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$526Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$526.14
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+100%+$250
Ukraine lowers conscription age before May 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,138Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT+31.4%+$357.75
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15,554Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15,553.86
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30,897Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$30,896.53
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26,584Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+55.5%+$14,758.45
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.79
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$12,910Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+35.1%+$4,532.74
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$349.99
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$632Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$631.69
Will Russia capture Toretsk before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$165.99
Zelensky remains President of Ukraine through September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$27.42
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$447.99
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+41.8%+$118
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$4,700Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+27.7%+$1,300
Fed rate hike in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$5,207Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$5,207.17
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$45,441Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+28.6%+$13,011.72
Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$64
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$68
Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$776Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$776
Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$5,232Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$5,232.19
Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,471Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$1,471.21
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+37%+$54
Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$5,058Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$5,057.52
Will Powell say "good afternoon" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$92.09
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$813Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$813.1
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11,740Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+106.7%+$12,523.53
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,902Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+25.4%+$737.11
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+92.3%+$192
Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 5 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$105
Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+53.8%+$70
Fed rate hike in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$15.68
Will Powell wear a purple tie at FOMC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT+28.2%+$219.99
Fed emergency rate cut in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$26.85
All 22 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST1844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$811Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+29%+$235.36
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+77.6%+$87.4
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+28.2%+$44
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$66
Dogecoin above $0.36 on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$224.99
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$350.44
Will $TRUMP hit $25B FDV by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$481Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+98.9%+$475.89
Dogecoin above $0.31 on January 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,062Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,061.87
$PNUT listed on Coinbase in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$927Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$927.43
$POPCAT listed on Binance or Coinbase in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$301.57
Dogecoin above $0.40 on December 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+119.5%+$223.72
Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST+207%+$672.96
Will Coinbase announce another coin as next listing?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST+141%+$117
Dogecoin above $0.43 on December 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$139
Will none of the named coins be listed on Coinbase in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,038Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$1,037.99
Dogecoin above $0.37 on November 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+61.3%+$75.99
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) greater than $40b one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Was Lara Trump hacked?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2024, EDT-100%-$75.2
All 18 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$4,076Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+84.6%+$3,448.74
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$82.21
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$177.38
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$2,697Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+130.5%+$3,520.11
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$10,199Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$3,227.69
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10,178Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+72%+$7,323.03
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$9,105Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.2%+$3,022.07
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$8,510Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+45.1%+$3,834.24
Ethereum all time high by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19,435Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+81.2%+$15,791.21
Solana all time high by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,266Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,266
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$261.41
Bitcoin all time high by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$449Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+301%+$1,351.17
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST+66.7%+$46.24
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$5,310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$5,310.36
Bitcoin all time high by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$4,873Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$4,873.14
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$23,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$23,500.4
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$90.52
All 17 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST1421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+227.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nik Airball be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$38
Will Alan Keating be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Will Martin Kabrhel be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Peter be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Nik Airball be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will Alan Keating be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million Dollar Marathon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+354.5%+$156
HCL Million Dollar Marathon: Alan Keating VPIP above 70%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+33.3%+$100
Will Jordan Griff win the WSOP main event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$109.05
Will Jonathan Tamayo win the WSOP main event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2024, EDT+3,900%+$1,072.5
Will Jason Sagle win the WSOP main event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$102.95
Will Boris Angelov win the WSOP main event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$65
Will Andres Gonzalez win the WSOP main event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$20.49
Will Joe Serock win the WSOP main event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$140
Will Malo Latinois win the WSOP main event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$41.62
All 14 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2025, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX rescues stranded astronauts before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$276Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$275.83
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 achieve a succesful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+233.3%+$315
Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+41.9%+$47.56
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$943Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$942.98
SpaceX 7th Starship Super Heavy blows up?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,688Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$1,687.92
Will Trump attend the launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$18.9
Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,971Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$1,971.23
SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$83
SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,594Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$1,593.79
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$418Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$418.44
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$5,206Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+334.4%+$17,410.24
All 11 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+85.2%+$92
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$2,876Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$2,875.71
Will Jake Paul fight Speed next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.44
Will the fight go the distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,132Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+76.2%+$862.82
Will the fight get cancelled?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$21.07
Will Oleksandr Usyk KO Tyson Fury?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,490Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+34.2%+$509.99
Will Lin Yu-Ting (TPE) win Gold in Women’s 57kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT+38.9%+$84
Will Imane Khelif (ALG) win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT+37%+$54
66kg W Boxing Final: Khelif (ALG) vs. Yang (CHN)backed Liu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$232.98
All 9 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$195
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+150%+$180
Will Atletico Madrid advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10.4
Will Shakhtar Donetsk advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Red Bull Salzburg win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Slovan Bratislava win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST-100%-$10
Will RB Leipzig win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST-100%-$10
All 8 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-79.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+837.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Chess — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver close over $40 at the end of 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$442Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$441.92
Will Gold close over $3,000 at the end of 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,267Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$1,266.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Novak Djokovic reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+56.3%+$72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will MicroStrategy market cap dip to $50b in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$2,280Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$2,279.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$746Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$746.48
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.