TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,216,308
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,366,523

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,216,308 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 5,026 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No67c410,737$276,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276,476.9614821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No80c275,097$219,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219,634.214650%23 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No60c135,244$81,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81,533.9751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No50c122,488$61,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,122.8715230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes41c116,349$48,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,291.4717755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbad4…acd7backed Yes38c115,290$43,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,449.7560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+73.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b02…4991backed No13c109,287$14,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,411.952917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No58c98,807$57,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,704.655745.6%26 W · 31 L-8.3wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No65c88,733$58,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,111.7937740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No60c84,021$50,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,412.468333.7%28 W · 55 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34d2…75a8backed Yes23c83,072$18,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,083.912015%3 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-64.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1521…f23ebacked Yes34c80,125$27,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,993.413764.9%24 W · 13 L+7.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+98.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes45c76,337$34,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,957.311747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cf9…2798backed No0c70,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes43c66,990$28,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,446.5764339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No62c62,958$38,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,782.8648923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6276…2dd9backed No76c60,000$45,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,749.72922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.7wins-0.41per pick63cpaid-64.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes70c57,110$39,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,124.438450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No62c53,962$33,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,713.866134.4%21 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes33c53,700$17,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,079.293828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes46c52,460$24,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,223.7428427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e02…817ebacked No60c50,000$29,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,951.881050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No9c49,871$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,300.435819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb04…648cbacked No73c48,876$35,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,679.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x095d…52cfbacked No63c48,591$30,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,721.392924.1%7 W · 22 L-10.4wins-0.36per pick60cpaid-64.6%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes32c47,911$15,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,643.147032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96f4…edc5backed Yes48c45,973$22,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,859.261540%6 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed No69c44,265$30,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,673.832642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-19.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0170…a17cbacked Yes41c42,211$17,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,867.843100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+96.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes27c39,834$10,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,114.292850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+79.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes53c39,829$21,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,774.8626423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No61c39,383$24,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,045.213141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed No75c37,201$27,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,942.561637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-41.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No4c35,400$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,51710139.6%40 W · 61 L+10.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes26c35,000$9,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,743.26336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No40c34,351$13,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,629.3212650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd576…d5e3backed Yes35c33,992$11,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,145.064337.2%16 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No51c33,235$16,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,933.044257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes55c33,027$18,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,758.7516553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes78c32,444$25,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,037.3920549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked No69c31,920$22,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,019.264032.5%13 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8fbd…2b32backed No3c31,769$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.68520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+43.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes45c31,386$14,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,372.1715232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes28c28,534$7,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,676.842814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x011a…ca8ebacked Yes31c27,658$8,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,116.35580%4 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.56per pick24cpaid+230.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6db2…a781backed Yes40c27,461$10,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,505.0410043%43 W · 57 L+13.0wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+13.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5fbd…fb37backed Yes47c26,589$12,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,221.642166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+55.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Yes33c26,184$8,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,429.89825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-40.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x020b…d13cbacked No80c25,000$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0001637.5%6 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.26per pick63cpaid-43.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1a47…846fbacked Yes32c24,704$8,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,694.132231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14fe…2a19backed Yes46c24,546$11,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,136.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No74c24,013$17,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,769.613933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c5c…43f4backed No1c23,093$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d9…e4eebacked No55c22,870$12,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,607.173053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed No69c22,244$15,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,387.741838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c21,770$13,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,247.5467841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c8b…23debacked Yes27c21,385$5,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,611.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.48per pick19cpaid+216%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x70a0…5bd7backed Yes33c21,110$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,109.831136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes28c20,703$5,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,867.697732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes61c20,644$12,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,149.2315541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No61c20,089$12,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,327.9631649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9411…63c7backed Yes57c20,000$11,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,611.331154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50fb…89cebacked Yes20c20,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,000887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick55cpaid+96.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd4f4…a781backed No0c19,890$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb5…4e68backed Yes27c19,683$5,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,274.771758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36c0…5930backed Yes30c19,635$5,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,789.241464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No61c19,380$11,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,734.046127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.6wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-42.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xf9b0…a817backed No0c18,656$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.972138.1%8 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x616d…bf7dbacked Yes65c18,478$12,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,406.086100%6 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes40c18,314$7,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,036.9119829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed No76c18,005$13,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,716.9730%0 W · 3 L-2.2wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x052c…5a0ebacked Yes53c17,901$9,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,368.561546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick64cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xde47…d724backed No67c17,403$11,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,60020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd8f…20abbacked Yes50c17,361$8,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,678.41650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5c…0c2abacked No62c17,327$10,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,696.513327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-59.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0573…5f76backed Yes37c17,210$6,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,852.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed No1c16,867$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.826726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d69…8830backed Yes74c16,785$12,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,365.26650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd303…a125backed Yes68c16,612$11,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,362.222548%12 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x706c…a94bbacked Yes44c16,400$7,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,121.712250%11 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bac…6634backed Yes26c16,015$4,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,902.961266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+66.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No61c15,790$9,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,677.217737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No61c15,771$9,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,543.334156.1%23 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes36c15,533$5,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,010.366825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No69c15,531$10,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,672.2110444.2%46 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes37c15,522$5,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,725.1916125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf94c…59dcbacked No47c15,436$7,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,30310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes39c15,320$5,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,335.7812038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed No74c15,100$11,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,166.353915.4%6 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed No80c15,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,0001723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.19per pick43cpaid-55.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd56b…3ba7backed Yes33c15,000$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0501100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked No68c15,000$10,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,249.9940%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed No7c14,964$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.634944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e5a…0122backed Yes39c14,863$5,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,126.881844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9654…a94ebacked Yes37c14,201$5,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,005.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b7…e00bbacked Yes27c14,147$3,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,291.85650%3 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+133.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No4c14,104$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.2820823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed No66c14,095$9,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,258.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b8…4847backed Yes36c14,014$5,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,918.661764.7%11 W · 6 L+4.7wins+0.28per pick37cpaid+284.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No0c14,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.