TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x93fb…3e4a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
283
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Europa Conference League, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Europa Conference League at 57 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT7241.7%30 W · 42 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 72 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18,468Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+573.7%+$105,952.78
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,013Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,012.5
Spread: Spain (-2.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$591Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$590.58
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$8,391Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,391.48
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13,961Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,961.37
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,056Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,056.16
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,100
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12,157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12,157
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$6,371Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$3,741.53
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,325Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$1,175
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$2,231Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$4,143.29
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$6,608Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,608.11
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$8,431Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+83.7%+$7,054.58
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,047Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$349.13
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$247.96
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20,376Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+59%+$12,027.05
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,968Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,968.15
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.63
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,144Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$1,398.07
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,425Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,425
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$475
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,349.97
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$850Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$850
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$790Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$790.37
Spread: England (-1.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$4,282Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+56.9%+$2,435.56
Showing 25 of 72 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT7032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 70 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$3,393Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,392.91
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$3,125Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+700%+$21,874.96
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$5,537Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+184.7%+$10,224.7
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$19,285Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+52.6%+$10,150.09
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$17,187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17,186.64
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$821Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$3,087.52
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$790Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$790.34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$750
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$4,703Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,702.72
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,381Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,380.68
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$19,976Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+411.9%+$82,283.94
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$477Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$1,062.14
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$52,406Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$52,406.31
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,677Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,677.11
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$224.34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24,771Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+103.2%+$25,572.5
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$3,161Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+733.4%+$23,182.98
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$8,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+993.8%+$79,499.92
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,212Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+900%+$10,907.78
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,560Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,560
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$409.9
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$513Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$512.97
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$33,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33,500
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,998Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,998.2
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$5,171Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,170.54
Showing 25 of 70 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-80.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,916Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,915.56
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$22,334Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22,334.38
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$5,014Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,013.97
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$6,293Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,293.09
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$4,651Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,650.62
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18,431Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+181.9%+$33,525.62
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18,347Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18,347.21
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$34,940Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$34,939.73
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$99,281Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$99,281.33
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,385Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,384.88
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$65,814Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+77.7%+$51,156.57
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.82
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$8,389Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,388.99
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$961Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$960.8
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$344.78
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15,910Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15,909.64
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13,003Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13,002.52
Will XRP reach $4.00 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50,782Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50,782.24
Will XRP reach $3.60 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$4,404Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,403.65
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21,577Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21,577.11
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$126.96
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$727Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$727.43
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$23,116Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$23,116.28
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$6,070Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,070.33
All 24 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$7,158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,158.09
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$10,403Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,403.01
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$4,944Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,943.51
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,596Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,596.28
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$36,322Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36,321.87
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$599Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$599.3
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15,493Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+52.9%+$8,194.46
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$18,781Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+165.1%+$31,015.02
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$284.47
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,233Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,233.04
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$900
Starmer out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18,116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18,116.09
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,650Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+51.5%+$850
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,098Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+78.6%+$862.34
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$504Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$504.16
France debt downgrade by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$8.5
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$342Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$184
Starmer out before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13,355Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13,355.34
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$5,001Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,000.85
All 19 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$33,032Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$33,032.18
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$6,154Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+332.5%+$20,460.69
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,634Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,634
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$245.21
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$168.93
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20,640Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$20,639.97
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,712Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$1,711.98
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40,553Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$40,553.4
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$58.19
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$3,246Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$3,246.13
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$748Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$748.03
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20,958Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20,958.36
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,441Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+44.5%+$640.75
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$2,135Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,135.07
All 14 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$8,632Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,632.2
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$14,233Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$14,232.86
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)backed FC Bayern München · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$621Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$621.18
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,739Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$2,428.84
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)backed FC Bayern München · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,078Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,077.62
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$359.45
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,977Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$2,845.54
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)backed FC Bayern München · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$345.87
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)backed FC Bayern München · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$621Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$621.14
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$755Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$755
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$240
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-10-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,575Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+293.7%+$4,625.8
Will Real Madrid advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$8,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+87.5%+$7,000
All 13 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$23,511Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+112.7%+$26,488.76
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$33,594Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33,594.2
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25,725Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25,724.5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$36,840Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36,840.17
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$8,015Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,015.37
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.84
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$8,049Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,048.83
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,051Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,050.5
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$803Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$803.01
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.56
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$8,219Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,219.44
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$4,576Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,575.51
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?backed Gold · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$42,553Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+99.3%+$42,244.78
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-47.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Poker Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-67%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+168.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$880
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)backed Aston Villa FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$345
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+203%+$670
All 3 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+92%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+106.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,870Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+137.9%+$2,578.27
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by August 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$119.11
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+65.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,583Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+31.6%+$500
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$14,263Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+100%+$14,262.96
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+185.7%+$650
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$380
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+142.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,855Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+142.6%+$2,644.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$132.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$600
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$871Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$870.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$675Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$675
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.