Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8359d31da8c8d730a96e0828c18938dfaa3957a8e3f75346e2c9ef8e459fa302

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $302,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $290,994

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,502 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes	20c	49,652$9,690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,690.39	387	34.4%133 W · 254 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	14c	32,396$4,573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,573.04	199	29.1%58 W · 141 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b05…1dacbacked Yes	15c	11,348$1,706 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,706.07	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes	15c	10,426$1,542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,542.41	103	35%36 W · 67 L	-9.6wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes	18c	9,600$1,758 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,757.99	79	41.8%33 W · 46 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes	16c	8,701$1,368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,368.18	149	20.8%31 W · 118 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	18c	6,775$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200.24	550	44.7%246 W · 304 L	-27.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd060…ce4fbacked Yes	18c	4,890$870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$870	158	36.7%58 W · 100 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed No	76c	4,477$3,402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,074.39	209	55.5%116 W · 93 L	+12.8wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes	16c	2,984$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.4	436	35.8%156 W · 280 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes	18c	2,611$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.29	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Yes	16c	2,500$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	472	35%165 W · 307 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	18c	2,339$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.38	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef8d…b115backed Yes	22c	2,323$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	102	24.5%25 W · 77 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00c0…4610backed Yes	22c	2,323$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	+39.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa80e…9fd6backed Yes	19c	2,197$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.46	222	16.2%36 W · 186 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-3.4wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No	80c	1,692$1,349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.49	707	50.1%354 W · 353 L	+25.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	16c	1,609$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.17	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-63%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc37…fdf4backed No	78c	1,600$1,252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$348.14	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes	15c	1,555$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.25	165	40.6%67 W · 98 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	19c	1,496$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.84	181	39.8%72 W · 109 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes	18c	1,470$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.88	426	40.1%171 W · 255 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd449…450fbacked No	79c	1,427$1,124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303	127	44.9%57 W · 70 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked No	75c	1,397$1,047 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$349.13	72	41.7%30 W · 42 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1364…99adbacked Yes	16c	1,343$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.87	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	16c	1,254$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.73	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x81dd…90f6backed Yes	23c	1,195$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.87	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,177$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.99	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefe8…e0f2backed No	80c	1,142$912 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.24	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…049fbacked No	77c	1,139$878 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260.59	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-3.7wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf83d…367dbacked No	78c	1,004$783 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.74	64	50%32 W · 32 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcfca…9722backed No	78c	1,000$780 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc5…da90backed Yes	19c	1,000$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.03	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd437…ba37backed Yes	17c	999.99$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	74	31.1%23 W · 51 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabe5…d99abacked Yes	20c	999.99$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	133	48.1%64 W · 69 L	+7.3wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	10c	987.5$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.75	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes	15c	953.2$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.34	153	32%49 W · 104 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	78c	857.29$668 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.39	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed No	79c	849.77$668 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182	120	25%30 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed Yes	25c	800$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	18c	735.93$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.74	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	16c	732$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.72	438	35.8%157 W · 281 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes	7c	715$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.05	200	36%72 W · 128 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes	8c	710.84$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.87	131	22.1%29 W · 102 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	2c	675$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2155…ff4bbacked Yes	18c	666.67$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x524f…319bbacked Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadc5…6aa4backed Yes	18c	600.61$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.11	114	12.3%14 W · 100 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf53e…2728backed Yes	18c	600$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.03	92	30.4%28 W · 64 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f1…b052backed Yes	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	159	30.2%48 W · 111 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a8…3d62backed Yes	20c	566.53$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.36	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a56…25cbbacked Yes	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93af…32abbacked Yes	19c	526.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	96	38.5%37 W · 59 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes	11c	523.56$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.59	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1158…0dc0backed Yes	19c	515$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	82	20.7%17 W · 65 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	118	28.8%34 W · 84 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd74c…e70bbacked Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	-6.1wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x02ee…9eeabacked Yes	19c	499.99$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed Yes	20c	480$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.6	144	36.1%52 W · 92 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8188…b171backed Yes	15c	457.08$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.56	188	39.9%75 W · 113 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x428f…5d1bbacked Yes	18c	443.83$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.33	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x624b…56f8backed Yes	16c	425.25$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.15	51	25.5%13 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No	78c	400$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.33	185	45.9%85 W · 100 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Yes	13c	391.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	479	35.1%168 W · 311 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed No	79c	388.79$309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	152	61.2%93 W · 59 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5cf…b6f8backed Yes	21c	378.43$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.47	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No	80c	355.41$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.61	222	42.8%95 W · 127 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	16c	346.47$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.86	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…2eafbacked Yes	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2277…6604backed Yes	16c	320.91$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.35	186	41.9%78 W · 108 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No	69c	314$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.34	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a65…e883backed Yes	16c	309.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	-6.9wins	-0.12per pick	61cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes	17c	300$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe82f…a089backed No	80c	300$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	23	82.6%19 W · 4 L	+3.5wins	+0.15per pick	67cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x61b0…14dbbacked Yes	20c	300$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes	15c	280.12$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.15	194	45.4%88 W · 106 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes	5c	279.56$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.68	171	38%65 W · 106 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ac1…a76bbacked Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76d2…99a6backed Yes	20c	250.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.14	72	26.4%19 W · 53 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No	79c	250$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.5	222	43.7%97 W · 125 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4e67…9a3ebacked No	80c	250$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	300	32.3%97 W · 203 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes	14c	250$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	77	33.8%26 W · 51 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0db…b117backed No	79c	250$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd8a…f9bdbacked No	79c	250$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.5	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	70cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes	14c	249.99$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3db…bba6backed Yes	15c	241.13$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.17	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed No	78c	234$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.48	40	35%14 W · 26 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0777…4b7fbacked Yes	21c	224.28$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.1	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d81…11a2backed Yes	18c	220.75$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.3wins	-0.14per pick	21cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x76e5…1613backed Yes	23c	219.03$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-2.7wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-53%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes	10c	211.39$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.43	722	47.2%341 W · 381 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	80c	211.38$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.09	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf508…6589backed Yes	18c	211.11$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Yes	18c	206.3$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.33	100	35%35 W · 65 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x890d…e39cbacked Yes	17c	205.88$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	65	38.5%25 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7705…2a24backed Yes	15c	201.7$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.26	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2aef…f8dfbacked Yes	14c	200$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	87	36.8%32 W · 55 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15f7…f0c4backed Yes	19c	200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc330…9794backed Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-44%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event