TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x890d…e39c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
101
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT6538.5%25 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 65 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$195.29
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advancebacked Algeria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancebacked Senegal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$34.75
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+300%+$45
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+255.9%+$63.97
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+161%+$531.65
Neymar Jr: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$104.06
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Luis Díaz: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 65 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+228.6%+$457.2
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.86
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.52
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$114.85
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.48
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$358Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$292.96
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+66.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+331%+$331.03
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+331%+$165.52
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves backed Wolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$152
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+150%+$145.5
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets backed Wolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$203.35
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.54
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$57.12
All 10 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+47.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+150%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+76.8%+$74.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.