TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$440,321
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,859

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $440,321 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes0c62,316$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.327420.3%15 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c53,850$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.74440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c39,869$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.564413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d79…28bdbacked Yes2c15,732$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.312321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+239.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked Yes3c15,072$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.963636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c13,429$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.76883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes1c10,755$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7619742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes1c7,500$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.518036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5942…a678backed Yes2c7,102$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.63652.8%19 W · 17 L+8.3wins+0.23per pick30cpaid+66%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes1c6,481$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.116746.1%77 W · 90 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes1c6,459$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.29333%1 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-94.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5462…eed6backed Yes6c5,411$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.31947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes0c5,201$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8212630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0657…3226backed Yes3c3,971$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x890d…e39cbacked Yes3c3,222$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7acd…ae09backed Yes4c3,157$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.58100%0 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes8c3,045$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.215527.3%15 W · 40 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes2c2,888$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8326139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes5c2,850$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.622725.1%57 W · 170 L+0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a76…53debacked Yes1c2,800$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.941216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-66.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes1c2,678$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7514834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x834a…3133backed Yes1c2,533$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe235…cfcebacked Yes4c2,373$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.92616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f53…6d04backed Yes1c2,322$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes2c2,286$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8113444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes3c2,282$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.153718.9%7 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-50.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ea1…c38ebacked Yes13c2,027$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.812524%6 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-59.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3fe…de10backed Yes5c1,919$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.28728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-39.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes2c1,851$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308716.1%14 W · 73 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes6c1,848$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3115932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f0e…5a3fbacked Yes3c1,794$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb997…c95bbacked Yes1c1,788$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.49837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-31.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes3c1,672$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.874615.2%7 W · 39 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-66.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa1b0…6578backed Yes2c1,628$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf9…7f7fbacked Yes6c1,604$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5100%0 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf295…91b6backed Yes5c1,502$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-62.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d38…6600backed Yes2c1,490$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-56.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes3c1,367$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.028237.8%31 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes1c1,363$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.758630.2%26 W · 60 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe103…5656backed Yes7c1,349$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x937d…b9c9backed Yes2c1,338$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9660%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes6c1,315$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.354766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbb…3f66backed Yes1c1,088$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.781030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb35a…9279backed Yes3c1,045$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+298.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13bb…c279backed Yes2c1,005$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.962326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafce…c2f6backed Yes3c1,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.941241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…95fcbacked Yes3c984.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb00c…0f71backed Yes5c916.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No78c899.72$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.8414947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked Yes3c895.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.39050%45 W · 45 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba63…6271backed Yes2c874.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.053339.4%13 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf4…6122backed Yes3c873.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed9…ca97backed Yes13c863.66$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.581513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6632…edb3backed Yes2c839.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9760%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc0…a921backed Yes2c833.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes3c767.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2211738.5%45 W · 72 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7dc…e796backed Yes8c759.27$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f3…0b2abacked Yes5c734.69$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-72.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes2c700$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7170%0 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5caa…953fbacked Yes21c700$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1471040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf614…fd8abacked Yes3c635.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9af4…0597backed Yes8c578.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3360%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6071…e933backed Yes3c576.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.043135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe694…7e7cbacked Yes3c565.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.691258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56c2…adb5backed Yes2c522.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12110%0 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd705…9043backed Yes29c517.93$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd245…2318backed Yes2c473.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.773225%8 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+43.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33f0…116ebacked Yes4c457.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb1…834cbacked Yes2c440$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c22…e27bbacked Yes5c424.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5795…30fabacked Yes4c406.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.83318.2%6 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…fc8ebacked Yes4c392.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eb6…a135backed Yes4c361.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1df…af33backed Yes8c355.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b9e…d704backed Yes4c352.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8344…3399backed Yes6c344.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x149b…d435backed Yes4c342.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8760%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2dc5…da90backed Yes5c335.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.141717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-71.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes4c301.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5939414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xb446…2daabacked Yes8c286.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a2a…638bbacked Yes4c280.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5903…23ffbacked Yes9c273.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.731526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781f…8a5abacked Yes9c269.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13d6…02fdbacked Yes5c269.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked Yes7c240$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.612556.8%71 W · 54 L+12.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21b8…47f4backed Yes13c238.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.131850%9 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64f7…afa6backed Yes6c227.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.762231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes7c214.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9923921.3%51 W · 188 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1e…da91backed Yes8c206.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick7cpaid+134.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes8c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.985523.6%13 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick30cpaid+51.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x820a…0fbbbacked Yes8c175.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f24…3c42backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.11435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe091…95e5backed No79c96.07$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.49560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+148.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ead…5a8bbacked Yes22c73.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…dc6dbacked No73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.46580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ad6…cc62backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.292857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x634c…7a41backed No79c27.38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+57.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.