Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc551420275c24cd31d2efa28bf28d7445e58aa8ebdcc5b56fe440ea8ebcec3d4

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $95,203
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,590

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,203 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdfb7…d958backed Yes	0c	23,360$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.36	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	17c	4,200$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720.17	549	34.6%190 W · 359 L	-37.0wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes	22c	1,386$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.39	159	32.7%52 W · 107 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	+102.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	7c	1,287$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.37	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes	1c	1,264$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	167	46.1%77 W · 90 L	+11.1wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes	15c	1,192$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.43	42	21.4%9 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes	20c	1,048$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.68	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	24c	930.19$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.44	463	30.2%140 W · 323 L	-20.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32c8…20babacked Yes	43c	836.37$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.4	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7f…db83backed Yes	19c	750$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	23c	734.22$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.73	884	48.5%429 W · 455 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8697…4165backed Yes	19c	726$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.39	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes	19c	718$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.86	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	36cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Yes	10c	706.75$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.37	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd210…92dfbacked Yes	21c	700$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.8	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5803…34b9backed Yes	24c	694.86$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.66	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f5f…ef39backed Yes	21c	653.34$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.9	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9df…1e41backed No	78c	639.95$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.95	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.29per pick	51cpaid	+245.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes	11c	628.43$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.55	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No	74c	610$452 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.83	50	52%26 W · 24 L	+5.9wins	+0.12per pick	40cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed No	66c	593.94$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202	82	37.8%31 W · 51 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95c4…db9fbacked No	76c	593.08$451 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.26	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b0e…f132backed Yes	8c	571.9$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.87	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	27c	568.31$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.85	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes	24c	564.29$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.24	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-5.0wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x128e…001dbacked Yes	17c	563$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.96	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Yes	22c	525.27$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.03	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe373…3736backed Yes	29c	459.2$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-2.6wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7734…4193backed Yes	28c	416.46$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.95	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	29cpaid	+50.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c95…7652backed Yes	13c	391.93$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.85	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	24cpaid	-85.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x830d…b7d5backed Yes	15c	368.86$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	78c	365.97$285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.17	170	37.6%64 W · 106 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe2…3254backed Yes	24c	312.19$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.55	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Yes	24c	303.69$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.49	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4250…51babacked Yes	35c	283.3$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60e9…5b91backed Yes	23c	254.99$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.65	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes	23c	250$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.65	227	25.1%57 W · 170 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	20c	238.73$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.49	140	27.9%39 W · 101 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x154e…ed0cbacked No	66c	233$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.92	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+68.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes	42c	222.1$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.8	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	28c	202$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.36	1,318	43.9%579 W · 739 L	-26.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes	19c	200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.2	74	43.2%32 W · 42 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-29%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0919…a292backed Yes	34c	200$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d34…e5c0backed Yes	24c	196.09$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked No	76c	195.12$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.83	86	30.2%26 W · 60 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf21…9cedbacked Yes	42c	195.03$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.33	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	18c	160.45$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.23	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	10c	153.37$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.81	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a80…7deabacked Yes	28c	147.36$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf093…a4d3backed Yes	37c	146.26$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.77	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b3…109fbacked Yes	14c	139.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	60%15 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	78c	132.26$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.68	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x063b…13b3backed Yes	24c	131.09$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd68…cdd3backed Yes	34c	121$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.5	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f9a…6fb2backed Yes	34c	113$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.76	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aae…b417backed Yes	18c	112.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.19per pick	29cpaid	-87.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes	22c	110.72$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.14	134	44.8%60 W · 74 L	+17.1wins	+0.13per pick	32cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	284	30.3%86 W · 198 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b43…ce76backed Yes	24c	82.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes	18c	75.43$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	163	43.6%71 W · 92 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf47…e2b7backed No	77c	65.27$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.27	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6a…e7f6backed Yes	30c	60$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.98	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc787…910bbacked Yes	24c	57.61$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	23c	53.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	87	16.1%14 W · 73 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4541…30d3backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes	24c	44.49$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	57	68.4%39 W · 18 L	+11.1wins	+0.19per pick	49cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	30c	43.83$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.15	274	38.3%105 W · 169 L	-32.3wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x94a2…086ebacked Yes	30c	40.31$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.92	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No	72c	40$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.02	314	43.9%138 W · 176 L	-12.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…96b4backed No	69c	38.46$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.92	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.15per pick	65cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed No	76c	37.12$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.79	75	70.7%53 W · 22 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc76…6a4fbacked No	76c	32.89$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.89	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe112…3f70backed No	76c	32.89$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.89	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4169…98e9backed No	79c	32.41$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.91	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e02…f8fabacked No	76c	31.11$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.47	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f48…a145backed No	76c	31.04$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.45	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2a1…ec51backed No	77c	25.91$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.91	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x746b…f3e7backed No	76c	24.61$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.91	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcf…f6fabacked No	76c	24.18$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9c…eebebacked No	76c	18.77$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.52	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccb0…2357backed No	76c	17.29$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.17	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a03…7b99backed No	76c	16.39$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.93	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+34.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x613d…be07backed No	76c	16.35$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.94	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71cf…52d1backed No	76c	14.04$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.43	22	77.3%17 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	75cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?this page
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
Will Carlos Espá finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Carlos Álvarez finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event