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World Politics · resolved market

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$415,866
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,347

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $415,866 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c63,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507420.3%15 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5795…30fabacked Yes1c47,686$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.783318.2%6 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae8…6e41backed Yes0c32,861$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd245…2318backed Yes0c20,846$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.383225%8 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+43.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f02…c7dfbacked Yes1c16,960$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x468d…edacbacked Yes0c8,983$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes0c8,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8512630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe316…1766backed Yes0c6,835$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.89911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick5cpaid-18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbd…784abacked Yes6c6,583$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.3670%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9af4…0597backed Yes1c2,081$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ea1…c38ebacked Yes22c1,500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3302524%6 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-59.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes1c1,283$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.798716.1%14 W · 73 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes17c1,089$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.075052%26 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes19c979.97$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.794615.2%7 W · 39 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-66.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes19c874.75$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1705527.3%15 W · 40 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed Yes3c812$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.195030%15 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+62.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32c8…20babacked Yes23c755.8$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7440%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes2c637.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.069950.5%50 W · 49 L+16.5wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+40.8%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9b7c…c62dbacked Yes6c498.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe373…3736backed Yes17c459.88$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.181513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-62.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x25ad…6b75backed Yes35c415$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.851741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No79c354.97$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2215932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c342.17$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0489548.3%432 W · 463 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0275…d186backed Yes20c340.28$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f5e…5cdbbacked Yes18c336.07$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.211526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aae…b417backed Yes18c308.61$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-87.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes23c308.2$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.892339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6922725.1%57 W · 170 L+0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf329…5703backed Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0768…4ed1backed Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c2a…7b98backed Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff83…3afcbacked Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd136…4ababacked Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8456…7dffbacked Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019a…87c2backed Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ba…e957backed Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6867…1577backed Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79a6…30ddbacked Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f3…57a1backed Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4541…ba5abacked Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e7b…6b89backed Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcad7…8b78backed Yes34c294$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes7c260.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2211738.5%45 W · 72 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4f…728abacked Yes11c260$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.21533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60e9…5b91backed Yes20c254.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51110%0 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes17c251.73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6237117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes25c250$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.52317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed No79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.57044.3%31 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3cb…95c4backed Yes25c236.5$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1360%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes7c215.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2955334.5%191 W · 362 L-38.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcbf9…7f7fbacked Yes24c207.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.75100%0 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303540%14 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0919…a292backed No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4011145%50 W · 61 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d34…e5c0backed Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdee9…7865backed Yes34c199$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes6c198.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5939813.8%55 W · 343 L-72.7wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No66c189$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.263565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes22c167.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.498630.2%26 W · 60 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes27c155.87$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.665317%9 W · 44 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7316…e4a2backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3d…e3c7backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa2…dbf0backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb0…6ba6backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc212…6b79backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea80…35fbbacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d9…e62abacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…a146backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9245…ed4bbacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5395…77a1backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a22…be6fbacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a9a…902fbacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x026c…db11backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf86…5e87backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…0226backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a5…38b1backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58a7…7ea8backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5812…a714backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb075…9916backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec67…288cbacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2226…0553backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa310…cd6abacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4844…4599backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ae…4a94backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf889…3b72backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…428ebacked No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa258…c047backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5baa…1b44backed No66c151$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked No78c146$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.121127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-59.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed No77c146$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.58714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-81.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No66c135$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.910652.8%56 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No68c126.78$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3420151.7%104 W · 97 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes14c118.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.499517.2%171 W · 824 L-149.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x060a…fa8fbacked Yes17c116.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.66742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes17c114.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011017.3%19 W · 91 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked Yes21c107.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5515022.7%34 W · 116 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaa2…6f3cbacked Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69d4…4d09backed No66c87$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed No78c82$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.041457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.