TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5795…30fa

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
156
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT8719.5%17 W · 70 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 87 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+131%+$17.72
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.56
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+100.3%+$21.56
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+81.3%+$25.92
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.18
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$8.88
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.17
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.68
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.33
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.72
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+2,942.4%+$708.54
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+285.9%+$200.71
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.71
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.15
Military action against Iran ends on March 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.14
Military action against Iran ends on March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.07
Military action against Iran ends on March 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.5
Military action against Iran ends on March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.42
Military action against Iran ends on March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.23
Military action against Iran ends on March 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Military action against Iran ends on March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.26
Military action against Iran ends on March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.72
Military action against Iran ends on March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.61
Showing 25 of 87 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT3318.2%6 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.31
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.08
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$69.91
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$5.06
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.56
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.47
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.43
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+298.2%+$359.06
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+77.5%+$15.15
Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.29
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.69
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$629Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$628.59
Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.79
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.49
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$280.78
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.8
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.73
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+436.4%+$141.14
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.99
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.13
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.08
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.48
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.5
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT2015%3 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-79.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+28.3%+$6.37
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+27.8%+$18.26
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.75
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+45.8%+$70.69
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.19
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.94
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.92
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.85
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.08
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.75
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.61
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.62
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.87
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$25.56
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$18.16
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$29.23
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$21.1
All 20 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-69.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.76
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.78
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$112.65
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$14.06
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+147.1%+$62.48
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$11.18
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$53.25
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.96per pick4cpaid+2,400%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+2,400%+$1,078.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.