Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x221e0b7d9646f5a4262509e8c4c856299c422e21571018dcb3d5bd288d70afd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $497,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $567,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $497,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed No | 1c | 91,922$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.04 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 0c | 36,530$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 0c | 16,425$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf28…7f92backed No | 1c | 10,022$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 0c | 9,858$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 3c | 6,471$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 5,947$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 2c | 5,031$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.16 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6547…82b3backed No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 2c | 4,741$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…6abfbacked No | 1c | 4,200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 1c | 4,125$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 7c | 3,427$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.03 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 1c | 3,264$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 1c | 2,765$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 1c | 2,678$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 1c | 1,911$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 7c | 1,833$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.37 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 3c | 1,741$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 2c | 1,708$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 9c | 1,606$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.52 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…f0fdbacked Yes | 59c | 1,529$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.7 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked Yes | 80c | 1,507$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.18 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 21c | 1,500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.99 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 9c | 1,452$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.64 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…9bc4backed No | 1c | 1,417$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,307$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 2c | 1,197$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 2c | 1,144$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 1c | 1,033$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…8dc0backed No | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d7…b775backed Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…701abacked Yes | 79c | 1,000$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 2c | 985.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 820.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0773…13c9backed Yes | 65c | 771.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 2c | 721$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 9c | 660.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 77c | 651.54$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.47 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33de…a7c6backed No | 3c | 649.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe033…40a5backed Yes | 55c | 630.34$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.94 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221c…d3c1backed Yes | 66c | 608.09$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.66 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 32c | 592.29$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.43 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…1dbebacked No | 3c | 573.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 2c | 531.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…ec4fbacked No | 2c | 529.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…5626backed Yes | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0999…dd96backed No | 16c | 472.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…75d1backed No | 58c | 405$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff9…359bbacked No | 5c | 383.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 10c | 345$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 36c | 339.53$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked No | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 67c | 322.58$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd658…2525backed Yes | 72c | 316.35$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 58c | 299.98$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.99 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…4d87backed No | 6c | 269$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…97bebacked No | 4c | 252.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…1f67backed Yes | 62c | 243.67$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…12efbacked Yes | 32c | 231.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3077…d7d4backed No | 9c | 231.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…b510backed No | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 7c | 207.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 35c | 200$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…92f8backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…17d9backed Yes | 52c | 185$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…579cbacked Yes | 52c | 173$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…3ceebacked Yes | 52c | 173$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97d…039bbacked Yes | 52c | 170$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac87…88c7backed Yes | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 63c | 141.4$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf34…29cabacked Yes | 52c | 139$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes | 30c | 135.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 79c | 135.24$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…af02backed Yes | 70c | 133.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 49c | 126.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d01…6ca9backed Yes | 65c | 107.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5backed No | 18c | 105.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…a2b8backed No | 20c | 99.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4904…65f2backed Yes | 34c | 88.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked No | 51c | 79.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…43c1backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 29c | 77.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 25c | 74.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…34dcbacked Yes | 32c | 72.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked No | 20c | 71.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked No | 25c | 70.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d18…c3b4backed No | 42c | 60.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 60.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…e809backed Yes | 42c | 59.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…a98cbacked Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 53c | 55.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -79%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…a1e2backed Yes | 54c | 55.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413a…0008backed No | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed Yes | 56c | 52.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8a…f9bdbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.