Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x028441ca49d358b80fcef82cc07e3924d5f6d5c03fde55e5a138d3d5f9be35b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9eb0…1af0backed Yes | 5c | 3,192$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…6cf0backed Yes | 4c | 2,613$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce62…6719backed Yes | 4c | 2,390$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…1679backed Yes | 4c | 2,046$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3f…4f97backed Yes | 3c | 1,934$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d28…fed6backed Yes | 3c | 1,880$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x492a…1754backed Yes | 1c | 1,810$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3396…dc8ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,770$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba6…90b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,673$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f1…4c7ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,647$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4491…5fb1backed Yes | 1c | 1,646$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4308…40d4backed Yes | 6c | 1,634$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…3778backed Yes | 4c | 1,602$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…4fc8backed Yes | 5c | 1,574$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…ba4cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,574$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…79acbacked Yes | 2c | 1,501$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…7fdcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,491$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,473$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ab…7e06backed Yes | 5c | 1,455$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…5fbbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,402$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf157…9468backed Yes | 5c | 1,349$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…b981backed Yes | 4c | 1,267$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef82…04b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,153$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…aa8abacked Yes | 1c | 1,050$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe996…08f8backed Yes | 2c | 1,040$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…f86fbacked Yes | 4c | 990$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…1967backed Yes | 3c | 989$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…d697backed Yes | 2c | 978$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…a18ebacked Yes | 4c | 964$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa436…3c2fbacked Yes | 4c | 964$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9754…8128backed Yes | 4c | 959$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…868abacked Yes | 2c | 842$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…42b7backed Yes | 2c | 836$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd018…1ebbbacked Yes | 2c | 809$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 2c | 793.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…9827backed Yes | 2c | 724$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…c385backed Yes | 2c | 721$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c53…55e6backed Yes | 2c | 654$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 2c | 636.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b58…2c78backed Yes | 4c | 588$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7d…1313backed Yes | 4c | 491$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 197.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 10c | 149.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…34dcbacked Yes | 20c | 70.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Yes won
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.