Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x982460624c93de97715ff5323897965b42c7e20ea01daeaad98e6833241d0612
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $467,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $374,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $467,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ee3…cbb1backed Yes | 0c | 57,837$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000c…bcf3backed Yes | 2c | 42,265$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…2211backed Yes | 2c | 8,964$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…213bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,779$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,111$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,047$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 1c | 3,939$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 3,807$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb725…92ffbacked Yes | 9c | 3,793$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…de80backed Yes | 9c | 3,753$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…19e3backed Yes | 1c | 3,192$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed Yes | 0c | 3,136$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…7f3abacked Yes | 1c | 3,061$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb768…cb4dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,058$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 1c | 3,023$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…a18ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,979$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 2,852$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe033…40a5backed Yes | 3c | 2,794$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2245…faebbacked Yes | 8c | 2,793$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…7421backed Yes | 10c | 2,730$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c2…31eebacked Yes | 8c | 2,702$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,614$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80dd…ef5dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,614$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52a…e276backed Yes | 2c | 2,496$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08df…c1c9backed Yes | 10c | 2,468$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…9d7bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,333$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…3348backed Yes | 0c | 2,321$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…0a01backed Yes | 8c | 2,317$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…bb3dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,277$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,158$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…ffdcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,989$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…c207backed Yes | 7c | 1,937$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf1…e155backed Yes | 11c | 1,867$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6f…a223backed Yes | 8c | 1,811$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb159…67a7backed Yes | 9c | 1,777$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…4c04backed Yes | 8c | 1,746$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…fa13backed Yes | 10c | 1,733$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…f346backed Yes | 11c | 1,726$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…777fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,690$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd165…7461backed Yes | 10c | 1,654$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…35bbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,648$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe1…37d9backed Yes | 10c | 1,629$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd534…2b36backed Yes | 8c | 1,616$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…8b3fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,565$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…2b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,541$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…d1e9backed Yes | 9c | 1,471$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…0fe3backed Yes | 10c | 1,441$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…593ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,440$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…f818backed Yes | 8c | 1,439$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…d8bcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…c7a5backed Yes | 8c | 1,370$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4008backed Yes | 11c | 1,362$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b5…28b4backed Yes | 11c | 1,226$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8782…a45ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,221$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97dc…082bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,221$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…b650backed Yes | 1c | 1,220$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x149b…d435backed Yes | 1c | 1,220$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…2bf7backed Yes | 8c | 1,209$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb981…6ed1backed Yes | 8c | 1,209$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c82…ddefbacked Yes | 11c | 1,136$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c3…3f13backed Yes | 8c | 1,133$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…fa0abacked Yes | 8c | 1,128$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…387dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,125$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…e7c4backed Yes | 11c | 1,073$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae3…868abacked Yes | 9c | 1,067$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb205…d31ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,008$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…dcc1backed Yes | 9c | 1,001$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c1…285cbacked Yes | 8c | 975$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…9299backed Yes | 1c | 950$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…2364backed Yes | 1c | 950$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d28…fed6backed Yes | 7c | 946$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 7c | 899.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…194cbacked Yes | 9c | 885$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…1d17backed Yes | 8c | 857$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…0603backed Yes | 8c | 841$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe316…1766backed Yes | 2c | 787.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x836d…af5dbacked Yes | 3c | 732.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…f113backed Yes | 11c | 730$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0773…13c9backed Yes | 9c | 673.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19cf…c635backed Yes | 11c | 488$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 3c | 404.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 6c | 397.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…e032backed Yes | 7c | 355.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 355.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a5…54cbbacked Yes | 6c | 320.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4097…88f2backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 6c | 210.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ad…cb38backed Yes | 8c | 156$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.