Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92410744b32432595f784c83740ecef014ff508e8c56c8152405c6d64880ac00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $622,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $582,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $622,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ee3…cbb1backed Yes | 1c | 304,149$2,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,554.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000c…bcf3backed Yes | 1c | 69,420$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…8869backed Yes | 1c | 45,632$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4de…a93dbacked Yes | 1c | 30,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…6abfbacked Yes | 1c | 16,180$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 3c | 15,799$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.44 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,750$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 7c | 5,327$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.09 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 4,880$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…0953backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 11c | 3,671$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.74 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 2,847$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -95.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 2,307$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5d9abacked Yes | 2c | 2,118$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…2211backed Yes | 15c | 2,117$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,930$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,876$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,829$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6153…b29fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,761$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,491$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,483$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…03d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,476$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 2c | 1,417$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,293$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3de…111abacked Yes | 2c | 1,160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0e…7f39backed Yes | 1c | 1,130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc2…b5fbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,123$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 1c | 944.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…3406backed Yes | 47c | 724.71$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 640.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 22c | 558.87$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.3 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcc…e74cbacked No | 67c | 512.5$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 22c | 499.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e9…f485backed Yes | 8c | 494.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 5c | 381.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 310$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ef…3e53backed Yes | 17c | 290.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5c…d35cbacked Yes | 8c | 247.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264d…6f2bbacked Yes | 7c | 213.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…cf57backed Yes | 24c | 211.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 78c | 211.77$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…1c4bbacked Yes | 7c | 207.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 26c | 196.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d28…985dbacked Yes | 15c | 194.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b9…0371backed Yes | 44c | 183.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 19c | 182.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 18c | 177.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd658…2525backed Yes | 36c | 144.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 7c | 142.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 14c | 142.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 38c | 131.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ff…3b59backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 22c | 86.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked No | 78c | 83.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafab…5949backed Yes | 25c | 60.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 27c | 55.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -79%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 76c | 54.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +63%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa288…f80fbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…ee89backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c0…09a3backed No | 68c | 26.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed No | 78c | 17.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Yes won
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.