Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22ed0a1f029b7ca62fee0d6b759b502d20967348b627984478679d4ee7f0f1e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $538,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $693,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $538,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9b8…d102backed Yes | 5c | 5,951$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaccc…abb5backed Yes | 2c | 3,429$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,095$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x535d…df91backed Yes | 4c | 3,025$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ac…de4ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,738$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…1171backed Yes | 3c | 2,680$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…cd86backed Yes | 3c | 2,679$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…70eebacked Yes | 4c | 2,594$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e8…93a4backed Yes | 2c | 2,562$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…14d1backed Yes | 5c | 2,537$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…3d9fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,511$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1021…f204backed Yes | 4c | 2,408$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…35d2backed Yes | 5c | 2,325$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4008backed Yes | 5c | 2,260$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef08…c975backed Yes | 4c | 2,217$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e51…618ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,189$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc6…cb92backed Yes | 5c | 2,164$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…4701backed Yes | 4c | 2,151$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf2…54efbacked Yes | 5c | 2,145$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c36…273ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,115$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…abb8backed Yes | 5c | 2,110$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x806d…6869backed Yes | 3c | 2,104$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…3fe7backed Yes | 5c | 2,098$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…4ff4backed Yes | 3c | 2,065$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a7backed Yes | 3c | 2,054$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…b196backed Yes | 4c | 2,002$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3923…22e0backed Yes | 4c | 1,996$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…6cf0backed Yes | 3c | 1,967$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…314ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,955$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…cea0backed Yes | 3c | 1,953$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,826$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…ac28backed Yes | 4c | 1,707$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1814…88ebbacked Yes | 3c | 1,697$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a17…b1a9backed Yes | 4c | 1,692$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a1…2e02backed Yes | 1c | 1,683$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…9221backed Yes | 2c | 1,571$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…76d5backed Yes | 4c | 1,425$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc55a…a767backed Yes | 4c | 1,409$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,406$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…a507backed Yes | 4c | 1,354$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331c…31bebacked Yes | 4c | 1,331$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…f86fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,309$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fa…b3cebacked Yes | 5c | 1,301$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…9aa9backed Yes | 5c | 1,293$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…fa13backed Yes | 4c | 1,262$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f01…aababacked Yes | 3c | 1,256$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…c28cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,251$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…08b9backed Yes | 4c | 1,163$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…028cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,135$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…abfbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,126$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…751cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,116$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa145…9542backed Yes | 4c | 1,105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…9ec9backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80fd…6081backed Yes | 3c | 1,072$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48c…f3b2backed Yes | 5c | 1,038$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea3…6dbcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,031$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…e7a2backed Yes | 4c | 994$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a81…86c4backed Yes | 5c | 964$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 3c | 958.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…542ebacked Yes | 4c | 955$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…457abacked Yes | 4c | 951$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6530…273ebacked Yes | 4c | 896$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x616e…794abacked Yes | 4c | 891$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc21…62eebacked Yes | 5c | 841$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b5…02d1backed Yes | 2c | 818$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x728e…0899backed Yes | 2c | 800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbe…bbaabacked Yes | 4c | 798$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…2509backed Yes | 4c | 744$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc1…8187backed Yes | 5c | 730$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425c…770ebacked Yes | 4c | 724$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…ac72backed Yes | 4c | 702$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf21…07b0backed Yes | 2c | 691$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…abdfbacked Yes | 4c | 667$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…8cb2backed Yes | 4c | 664$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…1e9abacked Yes | 2c | 656$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…a87bbacked Yes | 4c | 647$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf366…00d2backed Yes | 5c | 625$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…1967backed Yes | 5c | 618$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…ecc0backed Yes | 4c | 614$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2019…6cf6backed Yes | 4c | 602$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7533…e31dbacked Yes | 4c | 598$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…17d9backed Yes | 4c | 596$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610f…f2b2backed Yes | 4c | 593$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fa…cdd4backed Yes | 4c | 585$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…c341backed Yes | 4c | 579$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9e…9291backed Yes | 5c | 572$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c2…9b2bbacked Yes | 5c | 548$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8782…a45ebacked Yes | 4c | 524$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 6c | 519.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 2c | 505.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x113a…8c83backed Yes | 7c | 492$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9330…f692backed Yes | 4c | 473$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08df…c1c9backed Yes | 5c | 435$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…3152backed Yes | 7c | 428$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c3…5a0fbacked Yes | 7c | 407$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…aec6backed Yes | 7c | 405$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbf…2c8cbacked Yes | 7c | 386$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c1…285cbacked Yes | 4c | 385$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 4c | 369.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…e47dbacked Yes | 5c | 328$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?this page
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Yes won
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.