TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x88bb…8d2c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
218
Categories scored
28
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category China Taiwan at 58 out of 100; worst World Politics at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT3844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+100%+$40
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+583.8%+$85.88
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.67
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.43
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.93
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.3
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$67.32
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$11.48
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.9
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.05
Will "Sentimental Value" win no awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+25%+$3.6
Will Children no More: Were and Are Gone win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.98
Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.83
Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.8
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$5.19
Will One Battle After Another win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$63.18
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.94
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.42
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.17
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+33.3%+$6
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$11.9
Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$11.04
Will "Sinners" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$47.93
Will "One Battle After Another" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$15.99
Will Catherine O'Hara win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$64.9
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.04
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.94
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.96
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.85
Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.33
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.76
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.74
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.14
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.76
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$6.09
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$9.3
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.84
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.12
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 245m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.56
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 250m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.84
Uber # of trips above 3.6B in Q1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.77
Uber # of trips above 3.8B in Q1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.01
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$19.11
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$11.08
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+549.9%+$69.22
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+137.9%+$17.97
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.44
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.92
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT3522.9%8 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
World Politics — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the People Power Party win 0 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.54
Will the People Power Party win less than or equal to 1 seat in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.81
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.35
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Caroline Woodley win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.64
Will Zoë Garbett win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.9
Will GERB-SDS (GERB–SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.94
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.86
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.95
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.76
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.27
Will Josée Massi be the next mayor of Toulon?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$22.26
Will Gagan Kumar Thapa be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.82
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will Livable Rotterdam (LR) win the most seats in Rotterdam’s 2026 municipal election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+147.2%+$28.58
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by <5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$9.2
Will Liberal Alliance win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.11
Will SPD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+81%+$9.4
Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$3.36
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT2334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.96
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.69
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.32
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.82
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$9.24
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$12
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+151.1%+$17.45
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.8
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$7.82
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$62.32
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.48
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$14.3
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+135.8%+$28.8
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$34.95
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$199.5
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$18.5
US strike on Syria by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.99
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
All 23 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-52.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$5
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.98
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.5
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$4.48
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+100%+$25
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$14.26
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$25
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
All 10 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of April 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.93
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.95
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.72
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$7.54
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$26.24
All 8 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick39cpaid-69.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
College Football — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+126.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+186.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+35.1%+$13
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$16
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+334.8%+$77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick38cpaid+166.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Australia win?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+166.7%+$62.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+156.4%+$61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+122.2%+$27.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 13, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rays vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT+100%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.