Middle East · resolved market
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1f29ddc6bfebb7334386d797989209b740c45bd28f7593d2d85ea852c561cba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $470,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $490,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $470,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 618 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 52c | 25,659$13,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,296.09 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 46c | 21,644$10,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,034.29 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…2c91backed Yes | 64c | 15,000$9,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,600 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 26c | 14,487$3,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,695.7 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 25c | 13,867$3,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,436.4 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 46c | 10,153$4,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,460.21 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 73c | 9,090$6,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,457.2 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…6d6fbacked No | 65c | 7,205$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,504.98 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 31c | 6,842$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.71 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 47c | 6,177$2,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,929.56 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 57c | 6,165$3,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,632.94 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 17c | 5,380$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.38 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 57c | 5,270$2,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,284.39 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 60c | 5,265$3,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,118.94 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 5,000$3,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x915f…aba1backed No | 77c | 4,879$3,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 41c | 4,063$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396.05 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 65c | 3,921$2,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.41 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 18c | 3,900$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.99 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 28c | 3,718$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.37 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…1a1dbacked Yes | 53c | 3,662$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe074…10e2backed Yes | 70c | 3,586$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca54…f9e6backed Yes | 67c | 3,556$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,383.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 62c | 3,533$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.17 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 35c | 3,413$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,210.36 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…cbe8backed Yes | 71c | 3,382$2,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,397.06 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 76c | 3,377$2,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b2…0d0abacked No | 41c | 3,283$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,227$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed No | 44c | 3,074$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,736.77 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 37c | 2,700$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 73c | 2,569$1,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.13 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…04b6backed No | 78c | 2,555$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.9 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 36c | 2,500$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…60b6backed Yes | 58c | 2,426$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 2,367$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.04 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 42c | 2,308$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.72 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd97…e190backed Yes | 50c | 2,213$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.54 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 51c | 2,198$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.53 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 19c | 2,131$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.73 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 37c | 2,075$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.73 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed Yes | 20c | 2,066$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.26 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 22c | 2,002$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.39 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed No | 48c | 1,959$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.9 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +9.1wins | +0.25per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 74c | 1,867$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.54 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,744$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.72 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…29c6backed No | 56c | 1,719$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.16 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…35d3backed Yes | 34c | 1,663$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.26 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 62c | 1,657$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 64c | 1,647$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.3 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 1,637$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.09 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 34c | 1,600$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.49 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…457ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,574$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4141…8b6cbacked No | 60c | 1,563$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc5…7044backed Yes | 44c | 1,548$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f67…5bbabacked Yes | 42c | 1,539$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No | 46c | 1,506$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.42 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…99c0backed No | 74c | 1,401$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x991d…419ebacked No | 66c | 1,400$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 41c | 1,345$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.7 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…b48fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,338$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…15f9backed Yes | 70c | 1,335$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.95 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed No | 31c | 1,318$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.68 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…45d4backed No | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 29c | 1,272$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.89 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 64c | 1,250$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.28 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,249$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.54 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked Yes | 30c | 1,228$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 52c | 1,227$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.11 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…5007backed Yes | 49c | 1,213$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…48b6backed Yes | 34c | 1,200$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.52 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed No | 77c | 1,200$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed Yes | 75c | 1,147$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.6 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13a…3958backed Yes | 31c | 1,127$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 67c | 1,110$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.85 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 40c | 1,106$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.18 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9274…734bbacked Yes | 64c | 1,065$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.22 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 43c | 1,013$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.72 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 61c | 1,008$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 55c | 1,006$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.75 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.5 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…9097backed No | 76c | 998.58$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.35 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…80e1backed Yes | 49c | 991.15$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…4b55backed No | 48c | 961.28$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x595a…bca8backed No | 77c | 902.92$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.76 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked No | 62c | 898.68$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.67 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed No | 48c | 897.78$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.9 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…9bf5backed Yes | 71c | 878.13$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.31 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked No | 55c | 868.81$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked Yes | 41c | 867.47$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.31 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed No | 51c | 856.31$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.73 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…b994backed No | 58c | 854.53$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.53 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 18c | 835$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f9…a986backed Yes | 53c | 824.31$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 52c | 802.13$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.66 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 32c | 800$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 27c | 797.02$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.51 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 63c | 789.47$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 76c | 784.28$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.94 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?this page
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 1?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 2?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 3?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 4?No won
- US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.