TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6d9f…9790

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
508
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: AI, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category AI at 55 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT35347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 353 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$9,055Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,054.67
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,161Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+40.9%+$883.43
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$552Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$552.43
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$8,750Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+48.6%+$4,250
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$5,016Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+35.2%+$1,767.1
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,305Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,304.69
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$8,670Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,669.8
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,681Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,680.82
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$4,880Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,880.28
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$171.58
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,874Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+46.7%+$1,340.92
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.12
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.54
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+33.1%+$5.72
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.89
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$3,568Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,567.73
Kurds declare independence from Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,040Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$960
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$716Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$715.99
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13,678Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+43.8%+$5,984.98
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$6,289Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,288.75
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$864Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$215.89
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13,977Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,976.61
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$81,300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+45%+$36,571.28
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$449Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$192.26
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$5,979Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,978.59
Showing 25 of 353 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST5240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+33.7%+$37.8
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$990Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$509.99
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$299.24
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,109
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$569Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$221.33
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19,355Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19,354.54
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,920Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$1,920
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15,549Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+35.2%+$5,466.18
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$4,854Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,853.55
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.45
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$7,608Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,608.05
Will Trump say Hezbollah during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$73.1
US-Iran nuclear deal before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,905Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,905.45
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,052Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,051.61
Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$276Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$276.25
Will Donald Trump disparage Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2025, EDT+37%+$58.1
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,067Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,066.53
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$7,006Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+136.3%+$9,550.43
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$6,369Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,369.12
Trump exits Iran nuclear negotiations before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$22,645Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+32%+$7,236.91
Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,886Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+55.9%+$1,613.04
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$77.45
Trump travel ban removed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$90
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12,333Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+43.2%+$5,328.8
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$4,878Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,878.27
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$19.21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$10,935Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,934.98
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$3.95
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$201
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$4,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$4,900.32
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$5,536Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$5,535.75
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,746Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,746.49
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+51.1%+$85.3
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,130Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$870
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$568Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$378.4
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14,677Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14,677.39
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,095Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+55.3%+$605.05
Will Trump sign mineral deal without Zelenskyy apology?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$36.74
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+51.4%+$161.04
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$46,356Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$46,355.64
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,400Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$1,600
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$560
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,160Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT+49%+$1,058.77
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$41,695Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+36%+$15,024.83
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$18,150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$18,149.51
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$416Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$416.05
Will the US sanction Russia before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,019Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,019.36
Zelenskyy puts on a suit by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$43.54
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$223.28
All 25 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$510
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,800Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+76.2%+$2,133.16
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$38.46
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+30.7%+$11.75
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,875Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,874.99
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,375Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$3,375
U.S. withdraws from Syria before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$905Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+140.3%+$1,270.48
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$33,170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$33,169.98
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,075Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$1,425
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,866Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$4,153.19
Will Han Duck-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$4,878Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,878.5
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$5,180Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$8,819.99
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,850Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$3,150
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.64
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,550Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,550
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,108Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,108.3
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,386Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+52.3%+$1,247.87
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$960Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+228.6%+$2,193.62
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$6,755Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+74.8%+$5,053.55
All 20 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$2,239Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,238.52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$24,451Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$24,451.28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,795Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$1,198.33
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.96
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$972Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$971.67
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$9,706Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+149.1%+$14,468.38
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,269Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,268.84
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$5,220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,220
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$4,185Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+43.4%+$1,815.13
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$9,301Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$4,691.69
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,156Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,155.88
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,146Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$1,062.39
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$999.99
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,726Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+53.8%+$929.17
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+193.3%+$992.34
All 15 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+52.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+85.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+221%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$918Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+221%+$2,029.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,700Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$2,300.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$4,776Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,775.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $17 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,414Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$1,414
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.