TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$217,503
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$212,417

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,503 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes50c6,060$3,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,034.3314230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes29c5,729$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,633.2441238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No62c5,683$3,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.1369634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No62c5,232$3,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,965.9437533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes42c4,922$2,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.535240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bae…3a9bbacked No54c4,640$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,139.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8efa…f8c4backed No47c4,178$1,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,223.88742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes39c3,927$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,526.922245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c3,807$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.263989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaefb…a0efbacked Yes67c3,780$2,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,527.662070%14 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x037e…0c63backed Yes22c3,593$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.3742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick20cpaid+136.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9009…59e0backed No37c3,368$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,125.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes67c3,181$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,145.616544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeba7…fea3backed No12c3,166$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,796.09650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+237.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0887…b235backed Yes28c2,937$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.48944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf210…e8bdbacked No41c2,888$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.28728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes16c2,855$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.949549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes21c2,807$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003735.1%13 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968b…549bbacked No22c2,679$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,078.81742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes53c2,587$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.815642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes63c2,367$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.694837.5%18 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes20c2,345$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.894045%18 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a50…1248backed No28c2,314$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,658.24812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes5c2,274$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5533313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed No39c2,193$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.295168.6%35 W · 16 L+9.1wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+64.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes34c2,020$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.232626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No35c1,818$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.955735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes69c1,798$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.4337844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes45c1,778$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.9916535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x57e7…b491backed Yes59c1,770$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.54825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes31c1,769$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.42835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+29.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No41c1,727$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.421634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No64c1,569$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.922744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No32c1,398$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.1814742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No56c1,386$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.1617452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes42c1,356$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.578847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes12c1,350$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-84%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes1c1,303$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1518516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c1,300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1368.3%3 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes74c1,268$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.9410347.6%49 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes16c1,200$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1922250%11 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+68.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked No59c1,013$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.17955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes64c957.37$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.5619348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No35c902.92$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.336634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4aa9…d1bdbacked Yes79c900.64$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No27c900$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6546131.1%19 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e34…9cd8backed No44c894.62$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.862100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6cc…f848backed No41c890.37$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.112152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No51c876$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.142846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes38c870.81$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3359831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes58c865.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004047.5%19 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf283…cb3dbacked No48c811.71$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed Yes11c799.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-61.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes45c786.87$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.094259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe870…6bf8backed No43c776.67$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.71145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes52c741.03$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.77476.4%3 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-69.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Yes46c713.6$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.81145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No30c680.04$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.1611646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No56c672.04$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.543154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No36c666$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.243658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No69c665.38$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.8514624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9837…c072backed No57c638.78$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No24c621.57$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.310055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No35c573.56$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.3413943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc21e…e2e4backed No16c562.78$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.92425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+60.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes75c549.13$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.2418033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed No37c542.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.824216.7%7 W · 35 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-34.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes67c539.93$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.1210338.8%40 W · 63 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No27c535.82$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.9510834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1099…903cbacked Yes71c520.6$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.221533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab60…b46cbacked No24c496.83$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.834422.7%10 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4090…57cbbacked Yes68c480.87$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes57c477.12$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.642454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5dd…7564backed No44c462$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.721457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes66c412$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.3422347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c12…7a2fbacked No25c401.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed No34c399.99$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.997441.9%31 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes44c399.98$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.9913714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x874e…03b1backed No67c395.17$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.171145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4d…1acebacked No36c394.14$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.14757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No41c369.82$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.697338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes71c369.67$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.114748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x860f…0a33backed No57c315.57$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes50c314.09$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.121,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked Yes5c312.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.323438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes69c308.27$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.4521935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked No29c304.11$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.923043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked No29c300$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2134946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2948…788abacked No13c300$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+294.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1898737.9%33 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1294818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0978…00e6backed Yes66c300$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1981931.6%6 W · 13 L-4.8wins-0.25per pick57cpaid-57.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes40c299.97$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9913216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d1…0476backed No76c299.6$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.38475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No41c295.6$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.716431.3%20 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes7c295.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.932154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No34c292.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.734843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa03…c6c4backed Yes69c287.13$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.274158.5%24 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b75…b1a8backed No73c274.17$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.491040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-36.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.