TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x90f7…2501

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
332
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: World Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT14147.5%67 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 141 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$10.39
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+176.6%+$225.98
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+105.5%+$258.06
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+122.7%+$164.48
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+185%+$95.43
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.1
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+63.1%+$184.58
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$377.87
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.58
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$216.02
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+45%+$54.56
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$7,608Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.1%+$2,899.01
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.8
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,877Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+92.5%+$2,662.47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$7,545Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+243.2%+$18,345.82
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+205.6%+$29.65
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$876Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$876.16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,090Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,090.26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$9,744Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,744.11
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.48
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$509.91
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$3,432Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,431.59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.93
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,936Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,936.06
Showing 25 of 141 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST4843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+52.3%+$68.66
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+37%+$8.1
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$29.21
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+58.7%+$65.56
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+63.4%+$41.13
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$40.5
Will Sean Combs be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,109Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26%+$288.27
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$12.9
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$744Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+70.6%+$525.81
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$507Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+45.2%+$229.25
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$134.41
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.5
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$478Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$478.29
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.36
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.99
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+29.3%+$62.51
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$389.03
Will Trump designate ANTIFA a terrorist organization by September 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$189.2
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$112.93
Will Trump talk to Narendra Modi in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$567Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$566.65
Trump deploys National Guard to a blue city by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+28.1%+$38.12
Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+43.4%+$55.13
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.4
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$46
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT2646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$248.17
Will Elon Musk be the next CEO of X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25.1%+$58.15
Will MrBeast be the next CEO of X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.33
Will no CEO be announced in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.38
Will Mahmoud Reza Banki be the next CEO of X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$67.84
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$303.25
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$51.41
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #2 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+33.3%+$24.25
Will Luigi Mangione rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+25.3%+$25.25
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,178Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+36.7%+$432.77
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+52.2%+$119.37
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$34.97
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$307Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$306.87
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.11
Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+250.6%+$784.53
OpenAI browser by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$6.3
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$267.7
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$618Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+65.7%+$406.2
Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.98
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.27
Will @Grok resume replying by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.61
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$3,144Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+38.4%+$1,208.1
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.93
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+342.4%+$782.1
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Putin not meet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.5%+$34.32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,750Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,750.37
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$62.9
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+134.7%+$76.49
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$30.8
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$5,121Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.1%+$1,334.67
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+290.2%+$239.13
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$17.22
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+33.3%+$75
More EU sanctions on Russia by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$25
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$298.39
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$4,617Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+102.5%+$4,731.88
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$5,380Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+40.4%+$2,175.72
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$6
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.92
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$208.82
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.3
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.4
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.11
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+30.9%+$61.04
Trump x Putin talk before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+35.8%+$34.22
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$8
All 22 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$499Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$187.44
Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$112.79
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$45.93
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$225.25
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$453Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+157.1%+$712.04
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$163.97
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,078Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.3%+$412.76
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+60.9%+$143.9
ECB rate cut in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40%+$59.69
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,319Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27.5%+$362.92
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$187.66
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$204
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+96.1%+$196
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.2
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$5,854Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+28.5%+$1,667.64
Will Lisa Cook vote at the next FOMC meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$23.2
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$203.49
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$446Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$445.5
All 18 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+112.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Earnings — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.14
Will ETSY (ETSY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$26.03
Will Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$818Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+45.6%+$372.59
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$36.17
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$13.9
Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+809.1%+$178
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$45.23
Will Uber Technologies (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$21.27
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+437.6%+$310.84
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+545.2%+$169
Will Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
Will Fedex (FDX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$20
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+79.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$732Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+136.2%+$996.93
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+604.8%+$967.87
Canada recession before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.97
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$60
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$89.6
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.32
Choo Kyung-ho in jail by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+37%+$27
Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+87%+$122.8
Han Duck-soo in jail by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+150%+$100.53
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$119.8
All 10 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.99
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.15
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$812Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27.2%+$220.93
Solana all time high before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$19.6
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$68
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+117.4%+$54
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$57.2
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+35.3%+$76.26
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$755Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+34.1%+$257.44
All 9 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 20, 2025, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
WNBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT+37.7%+$22.12
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Tuesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT+28.4%+$13.27
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+45.5%+$30.38
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT+52%+$56.72
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$141.7
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$114
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+27.8%+$40.44
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by August 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$135.13
All 8 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Boxing — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-71.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+72.4%+$54.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$382.02
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.