Fed Rates · resolved market
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05af636e0989accb08334a74f69e5368e0aa28fe498fd16a3ca991e6dc5ae2cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,706,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,506,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,706,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,809 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 28c | 221,628$62,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,073.52 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…1e04backed Yes | 37c | 87,840$32,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,835.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…295ebacked Yes | 25c | 80,023$20,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,220.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 22c | 70,739$15,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,549.48 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes | 31c | 65,897$20,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,586.46 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 4c | 63,310$2,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,466.2 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -78%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes | 5c | 60,675$3,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,033.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52c3…875ebacked Yes | 3c | 59,965$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…42dabacked Yes | 22c | 55,768$12,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,193.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 33c | 47,285$15,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,373.68 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 22c | 46,948$10,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,194.31 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 18c | 45,852$8,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,481.7 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94be…aeb5backed Yes | 18c | 41,920$7,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,747.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…48eebacked Yes | 22c | 37,543$8,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,206.23 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 38c | 34,815$13,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,167.87 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 14c | 34,391$4,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,907.18 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes | 31c | 31,285$9,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,760.94 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 7c | 30,398$2,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,116.78 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes | 43c | 30,014$12,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,771.69 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Yes | 30c | 30,000$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 22c | 29,004$6,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,288.75 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 36c | 28,903$10,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,287.49 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes | 23c | 28,861$6,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,638.08 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…9766backed Yes | 17c | 28,000$4,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,760 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ad…337dbacked Yes | 25c | 26,653$6,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,622.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…3c7abacked Yes | 31c | 25,221$7,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,861.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 35c | 23,533$8,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,180.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…ce36backed Yes | 47c | 21,982$10,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,316.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 27c | 21,012$5,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,777.25 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 35c | 20,559$7,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,117.27 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 31c | 20,370$6,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,318.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 30c | 19,136$5,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,803.95 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 17c | 18,207$3,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,184.33 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 18c | 18,096$3,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,323.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 21c | 17,016$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 8c | 16,951$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.49 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 17c | 16,493$2,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,803.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…3afcbacked Yes | 14c | 16,484$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,243.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Yes | 28c | 15,360$4,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,364.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 20c | 15,086$3,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,067.16 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe852…0235backed Yes | 39c | 14,122$5,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,514.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c5…413bbacked No | 34c | 13,000$4,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,580 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 10c | 12,968$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.4 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 35c | 12,951$4,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,518.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…6374backed Yes | 11c | 12,606$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 25c | 11,370$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,849.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 30c | 11,009$3,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,253.75 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…e65abacked Yes | 35c | 10,800$3,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,772 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 24c | 10,777$2,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,593.7 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 33c | 10,247$3,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,394.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 35c | 9,330$3,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,260.04 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…d472backed No | 53c | 9,045$4,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,251.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…8b7fbacked Yes | 47c | 9,045$4,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,251.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…6ef7backed Yes | 46c | 9,000$4,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,124.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 32c | 8,170$2,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,633.05 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 26c | 8,163$2,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,143.89 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…62dabacked Yes | 31c | 8,139$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 19c | 8,072$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.46 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674a…d582backed Yes | 25c | 8,031$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 29c | 7,964$2,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.04 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 38c | 7,934$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed No | 64c | 7,788$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,788.13 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 41c | 7,767$3,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,213.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf714…74d6backed No | 65c | 7,746$5,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,740.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 21c | 7,680$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x979d…189bbacked Yes | 31c | 7,523$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed Yes | 7c | 7,500$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 22c | 7,157$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.12 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…f117backed Yes | 29c | 7,014$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…03b8backed Yes | 25c | 6,849$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5247…69c1backed Yes | 66c | 6,600$4,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,356 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd484…8280backed Yes | 42c | 6,568$2,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576f…e334backed Yes | 66c | 6,400$4,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,224 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf034…8a19backed Yes | 8c | 6,335$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e86…9a71backed Yes | 8c | 6,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 42c | 6,031$2,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,506.96 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950e…76d9backed Yes | 17c | 5,756$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…1bd4backed Yes | 38c | 5,526$2,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 26c | 5,433$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 39c | 5,209$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.08 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 38c | 5,041$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 18c | 5,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a4…60dabacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87cf…04cabacked No | 68c | 4,991$3,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…7b71backed Yes | 32c | 4,910$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ae…aa64backed Yes | 34c | 4,761$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 31c | 4,700$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.53 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 26c | 4,628$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.48 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c6…b472backed Yes | 32c | 4,613$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc8…63f2backed No | 45c | 4,423$1,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 33c | 4,388$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd486…2287backed Yes | 44c | 4,356$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,902.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 24c | 4,214$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.68 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Yes | 32c | 4,203$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…2b06backed Yes | 26c | 4,095$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 22c | 4,048$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.34 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 17c | 3,937$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.06 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 32c | 3,912$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.86 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?this page
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?No won
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes won
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.