TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,706,364
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,506,234

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,706,364 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,809 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…5204backed Yes28c221,628$62,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,073.523423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ef…1e04backed Yes37c87,840$32,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,835.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…295ebacked Yes25c80,023$20,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,220.4425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-62.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4621…efccbacked Yes22c70,739$15,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,549.482917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes31c65,897$20,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,586.461681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes4c63,310$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.22611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-78%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes5c60,675$3,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,033.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52c3…875ebacked Yes3c59,965$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5587…42dabacked Yes22c55,768$12,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,193.861127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes33c47,285$15,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,373.684820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes22c46,948$10,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,194.316516.9%11 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes18c45,852$8,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,481.72123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94be…aeb5backed Yes18c41,920$7,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,747.22850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24b1…48eebacked Yes22c37,543$8,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,206.23119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes38c34,815$13,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,167.878333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes14c34,391$4,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,907.182015%3 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-74.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes31c31,285$9,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,760.942321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes7c30,398$2,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,116.781931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid-41%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes43c30,014$12,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,771.69911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Yes30c30,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,000333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes22c29,004$6,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,288.754151.2%21 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes36c28,903$10,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,287.498953.9%48 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes23c28,861$6,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,638.081735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe426…9766backed Yes17c28,000$4,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,760616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ad…337dbacked Yes25c26,653$6,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,622.87425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+70.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f14…3c7abacked Yes31c25,221$7,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,861.821560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes35c23,533$8,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,180.991533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad14…ce36backed Yes47c21,982$10,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,316.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes27c21,012$5,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,777.25306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-88.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes35c20,559$7,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,117.274320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-58.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…ac84backed Yes31c20,370$6,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,318.81241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes30c19,136$5,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,803.953525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes17c18,207$3,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,184.339018.9%17 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes18c18,096$3,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,323.241421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes21c17,016$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,600.431250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes8c16,951$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.4910420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x521b…db60backed Yes17c16,493$2,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,803.851020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-69.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c08…3afcbacked Yes14c16,484$2,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,243.71020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Yes28c15,360$4,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,364.1650%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes20c15,086$3,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,067.161172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+40.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe852…0235backed Yes39c14,122$5,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,514.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c5…413bbacked No34c13,000$4,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,5801100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes10c12,968$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.42725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes35c12,951$4,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,518.98812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-79.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ae…6374backed Yes11c12,606$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked Yes25c11,370$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,849.51922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-70.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes30c11,009$3,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,253.753834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4e…e65abacked Yes35c10,800$3,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,772633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes24c10,777$2,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,593.72630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed Yes33c10,247$3,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,394.92035%7 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-48%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x856f…e1d7backed Yes7c10,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-54.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes35c9,330$3,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,260.043043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c1f…d472backed No53c9,045$4,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,251.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d3d…8b7fbacked Yes47c9,045$4,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,251.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c9…6ef7backed Yes46c9,000$4,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,124.76425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes32c8,170$2,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,633.051216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes26c8,163$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.891921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c7…62dabacked Yes31c8,139$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes19c8,072$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.464712.8%6 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x674a…d582backed Yes25c8,031$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes29c7,964$2,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,342.045431.5%17 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes38c7,934$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed No64c7,788$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,788.132010%2 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes41c7,767$3,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,213.11330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf714…74d6backed No65c7,746$5,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,740.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes21c7,680$1,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,588.52138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x979d…189bbacked Yes31c7,523$2,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,301.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed Yes7c7,500$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5051127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes22c7,157$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.122711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-80.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9810…f117backed Yes29c7,014$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+63.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c07…03b8backed Yes25c6,849$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70070%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5247…69c1backed Yes66c6,600$4,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,35610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd484…8280backed Yes42c6,568$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,769.26650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x576f…e334backed Yes66c6,400$4,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,22410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf034…8a19backed Yes8c6,335$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e86…9a71backed Yes8c6,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes42c6,031$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,506.964320.9%9 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x950e…76d9backed Yes17c5,756$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f47…1bd4backed Yes38c5,526$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,126.86520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes26c5,433$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes39c5,209$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,040.086842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes38c5,041$1,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.111533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-52.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46a4…60dabacked Yes7c5,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501030%3 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick15cpaid-3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87cf…04cabacked No68c4,991$3,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,606.95560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21fe…7b71backed Yes32c4,910$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580.46850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ae…aa64backed Yes34c4,761$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes31c4,700$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.532927.6%8 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes26c4,628$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.482814.3%4 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c6…b472backed Yes32c4,613$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc8…63f2backed No45c4,423$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,429.26560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe504…70efbacked Yes33c4,388$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.38944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd486…2287backed Yes44c4,356$1,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes24c4,214$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.688132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc320…7637backed Yes32c4,203$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.941250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed Yes26c4,095$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059130%0 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes22c4,048$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.34200%0 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes2c4,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes17c3,937$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.061315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes32c3,912$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,265.867226.4%19 W · 53 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.