TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,089,648
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,904,514

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,089,648 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 541 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes3c189,108$5,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,808.9510420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes6c137,131$8,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,034.172010%2 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes7c119,425$8,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,254.593423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes18c105,808$18,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,587.411735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe426…9766backed Yes14c73,333$10,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,133.33616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…295ebacked Yes5c71,466$3,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,575.26425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-62.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked Yes9c60,878$5,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,345.14728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4621…efccbacked Yes6c55,105$3,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,134.652917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes17c50,956$8,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,503.774151.2%21 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7a8…74dbbacked Yes5c35,454$1,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes1c33,220$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.08224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f5…c573backed Yes5c32,997$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes16c31,255$5,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,092.94820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes7c29,368$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.139018.9%17 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87ed…a63bbacked Yes6c26,423$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.422611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ad…337dbacked Yes9c25,672$2,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,253.06425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+70.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes12c25,531$2,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,958.221942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8329…96c2backed Yes7c25,093$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.11216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes6c24,147$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.16200%0 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c23,960$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.16820%0 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3680…a456backed Yes11c22,300$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick19cpaid-13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes7c21,844$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.173855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4344…caefbacked Yes15c20,057$3,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,033.7140%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Yes2c20,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Yes7c19,197$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.053225%8 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf02…cedfbacked Yes10c17,773$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,820.151118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-68.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8225…c4a8backed Yes10c16,504$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,689.69812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…0c00backed Yes4c16,262$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.231637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick23cpaid-20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24b1…48eebacked Yes5c15,531$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.94119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes6c15,467$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.032231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf9b…def7backed Yes11c14,573$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.531020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes5c13,806$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.543834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes8c13,539$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.236235.5%22 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-30.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c07…03b8backed Yes7c13,359$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00070%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes12c13,222$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.842934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf02d…98d6backed Yes11c11,968$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.73616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes18c11,954$2,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,096.971020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes6c11,619$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.444712.8%6 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda34…f054backed Yes0c10,650$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5422…a780backed Yes0c10,200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes8c10,101$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.69922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8648…2241backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes10c9,842$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.865740.4%23 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes12c9,652$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.53911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc440…d1adbacked Yes6c8,876$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.751118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-69.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x308f…35cabacked Yes5c8,595$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.63812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46a4…60dabacked Yes1c8,484$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.921030%3 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick15cpaid-3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Yes2c7,759$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.471811.1%2 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2328…5adabacked Yes8c7,755$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.77425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes7c7,738$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes2c7,642$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.282711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-80.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x674a…d582backed Yes13c7,500$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.98616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c7,388$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.42611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-96.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes4c6,646$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2786616.7%11 W · 55 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+51.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes13c6,605$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.868333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c6,558$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.73960%0 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbccd…c5e5backed Yes20c6,179$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.25650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf96…ee90backed Yes11c5,893$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.141258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+49%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3f…e1c3backed Yes2c5,882$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x086a…ffccbacked Yes9c5,651$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+68.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes3c5,648$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.29944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45ef…0e84backed Yes2c5,584$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes6c5,544$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.193525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf3…a699backed Yes3c5,422$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.152611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d1…d015backed Yes2c5,272$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8bf…a760backed Yes10c5,141$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes16c5,000$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.981040%4 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65b5…a403backed Yes8c5,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001040%4 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9c0…f539backed Yes6c5,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+193.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes19c5,000$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.521612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-52.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4c9…6ef7backed Yes5c4,945$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.91425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69a5…d82ebacked Yes11c4,698$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f47…1bd4backed Yes7c4,694$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.93520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b60…0de8backed Yes18c4,680$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4b3…57adbacked Yes5c4,661$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2e…2358backed Yes17c4,634$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.371717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes11c4,592$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick36cpaid-87.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes2c4,436$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.16365.6%2 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-81.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce1a…354fbacked Yes11c4,106$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.64966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+63.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c4,050$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.953187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff88…4735backed Yes12c4,008$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca3…cb95backed Yes2c4,000$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4561…59d4backed Yes8c3,858$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes7c3,747$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.08306.7%2 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-88.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3623…dcf9backed Yes16c3,681$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7206…744cbacked Yes1c3,533$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb54a…c622backed Yes4c3,517$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1542814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-23%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes8c3,500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.551315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea89…f1a6backed Yes5c3,500$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes5c3,486$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.422020%4 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-65%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes2c3,447$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1cc…aa97backed Yes5c3,438$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x472a…9033backed Yes11c3,422$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.141533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes6c3,400$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.873218.8%6 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes10c3,325$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.168132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8098…4628backed Yes9c3,211$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.34714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3978…dc82backed Yes4c3,185$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Yes7c3,179$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.31118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-35%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44e3…e6c7backed Yes1c3,145$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes6c3,096$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.15431.5%17 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.