Fed Rates · resolved market
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2846f35e85eb09a094edbd4e93e345d3c682dc0436615adc27122222fccbd81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,089,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,904,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,089,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 541 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 3c | 189,108$5,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,808.95 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 6c | 137,131$8,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,034.17 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 7c | 119,425$8,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,254.59 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes | 18c | 105,808$18,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,587.41 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…9766backed Yes | 14c | 73,333$10,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,133.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…295ebacked Yes | 5c | 71,466$3,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,575.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 9c | 60,878$5,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,345.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 6c | 55,105$3,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,134.65 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 17c | 50,956$8,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,503.77 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…74dbbacked Yes | 5c | 35,454$1,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes | 1c | 33,220$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.08 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…c573backed Yes | 5c | 32,997$1,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 16c | 31,255$5,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,092.9 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 7c | 29,368$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.13 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…a63bbacked Yes | 6c | 26,423$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.42 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ad…337dbacked Yes | 9c | 25,672$2,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,253.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes | 12c | 25,531$2,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,958.22 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8329…96c2backed Yes | 7c | 25,093$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 24,147$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.16 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 23,960$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.16 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…a456backed Yes | 11c | 22,300$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 7c | 21,844$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,468.17 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Yes | 15c | 20,057$3,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,033.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Yes | 2c | 20,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 7c | 19,197$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.05 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…cedfbacked Yes | 10c | 17,773$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…c4a8backed Yes | 10c | 16,504$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…0c00backed Yes | 4c | 16,262$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…48eebacked Yes | 5c | 15,531$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.94 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 6c | 15,467$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.03 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9b…def7backed Yes | 11c | 14,573$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 5c | 13,806$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.54 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 8c | 13,539$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.23 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…03b8backed Yes | 7c | 13,359$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 12c | 13,222$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.84 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…98d6backed Yes | 11c | 11,968$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 18c | 11,954$2,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,096.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 6c | 11,619$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.44 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…f054backed Yes | 0c | 10,650$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 0c | 10,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes | 8c | 10,101$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…2241backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 10c | 9,842$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.86 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 9,652$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…d1adbacked Yes | 6c | 8,876$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…35cabacked Yes | 5c | 8,595$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a4…60dabacked Yes | 1c | 8,484$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 2c | 7,759$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.47 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…5adabacked Yes | 8c | 7,755$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 7c | 7,738$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 2c | 7,642$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.28 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674a…d582backed Yes | 13c | 7,500$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 7,388$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.42 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 6,646$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 13c | 6,605$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.86 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 6,558$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.73 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbccd…c5e5backed Yes | 20c | 6,179$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf96…ee90backed Yes | 11c | 5,893$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +49%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3f…e1c3backed Yes | 2c | 5,882$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…ffccbacked Yes | 9c | 5,651$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 3c | 5,648$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…0e84backed Yes | 2c | 5,584$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 6c | 5,544$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.19 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…a699backed Yes | 3c | 5,422$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.15 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…d015backed Yes | 2c | 5,272$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…a760backed Yes | 10c | 5,141$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 16c | 5,000$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a403backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…f539backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +193.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 19c | 5,000$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.52 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…6ef7backed Yes | 5c | 4,945$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a5…d82ebacked Yes | 11c | 4,698$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…1bd4backed Yes | 7c | 4,694$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…0de8backed Yes | 18c | 4,680$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…57adbacked Yes | 5c | 4,661$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 17c | 4,634$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.37 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 11c | 4,592$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 4,436$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1a…354fbacked Yes | 11c | 4,106$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 4,050$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.95 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff88…4735backed Yes | 12c | 4,008$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4561…59d4backed Yes | 8c | 3,858$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 7c | 3,747$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.08 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3623…dcf9backed Yes | 16c | 3,681$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7206…744cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,533$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…c622backed Yes | 4c | 3,517$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.55 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…f1a6backed Yes | 5c | 3,500$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 5c | 3,486$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.42 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 2c | 3,447$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…aa97backed Yes | 5c | 3,438$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…9033backed Yes | 11c | 3,422$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 6c | 3,400$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.87 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 3,325$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.16 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…4628backed Yes | 9c | 3,211$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…dc82backed Yes | 4c | 3,185$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 7c | 3,179$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e3…e6c7backed Yes | 1c | 3,145$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 6c | 3,096$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.1 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?this page
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?No won
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes won
- Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.