Fed Rates · resolved market
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37100ed3560699c48d90a027e65da10a04e395785b598289163e3bbfdaca99e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,623,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,440,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,623,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes | 0c | 355,218$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.32 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 297,690$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,071.35 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 2c | 151,120$2,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,684.84 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 3c | 61,915$2,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130.72 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 6c | 52,102$3,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,144.81 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 47,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 82 | 0%0 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…a63bbacked Yes | 3c | 45,976$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.91 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 2c | 44,772$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 36,200$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.2 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…0c00backed Yes | 1c | 35,228$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 0c | 32,112$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 3c | 31,422$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.09 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8329…96c2backed Yes | 2c | 30,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 4c | 29,603$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.09 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -79%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 0c | 25,612$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 20,935$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.54 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…d1adbacked Yes | 2c | 20,798$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…983bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…a20bbacked Yes | 3c | 19,903$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 2c | 19,725$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.53 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…a699backed Yes | 1c | 18,249$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.9 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…b52ebacked Yes | 5c | 17,651$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,884$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…e4dfbacked Yes | 2c | 13,974$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 0c | 12,662$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…5adabacked Yes | 2c | 12,609$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed Yes | 2c | 12,355$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…35cabacked Yes | 1c | 11,514$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbb…7cdbbacked Yes | 2c | 10,887$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.55 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 0c | 10,282$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…61cabacked Yes | 2c | 10,158$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54b…a190backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 0c | 9,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…bae4backed Yes | 3c | 8,568$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,545$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 8,177$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…07a0backed Yes | 1c | 7,964$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…9f13backed Yes | 3c | 6,928$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 5,950$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.52 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,555$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…98d6backed Yes | 3c | 5,474$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…2cd9backed Yes | 0c | 5,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d2…84e7backed Yes | 0c | 5,033$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 4,961$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…57adbacked Yes | 5c | 4,638$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 7c | 4,627$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284b…8b4cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,309$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 4,129$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.57 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 2c | 4,008$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b66…b033backed Yes | 0c | 4,003$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 3c | 3,311$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba1…0d6ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,230$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.18 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…93d1backed Yes | 1c | 3,174$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 2c | 3,116$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked Yes | 2c | 3,021$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…44d3backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…a9a9backed Yes | 3c | 2,823$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 3c | 2,672$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 2,657$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd651…bb00backed Yes | 4c | 2,632$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 1c | 2,501$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…fae9backed Yes | 3c | 2,474$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,279$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 2c | 2,200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe69a…faf3backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…65a8backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 1c | 1,988$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes | 3c | 1,946$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x337e…4287backed Yes | 1c | 1,847$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,690$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -69%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…310bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,672$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.45 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ec…313fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…9033backed Yes | 2c | 1,633$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2306…2815backed Yes | 2c | 1,606$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…ffadbacked Yes | 2c | 1,378$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,320$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 3c | 1,261$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f1…bc37backed Yes | 4c | 1,159$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…b2bbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d6…60d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,025$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb95…6da1backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 1c | 989.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23ec…be01backed Yes | 3c | 976.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…a22abacked Yes | 1c | 940.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f25…cf87backed Yes | 2c | 937.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07b…1812backed Yes | 5c | 891.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…d54bbacked Yes | 2c | 884$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…1da9backed Yes | 1c | 864$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…1821backed Yes | 1c | 836$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ced…8a3dbacked Yes | 1c | 836$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?this page
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?No won
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes won
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.