TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,623,047
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,440,480

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,623,047 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes0c355,218$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.32224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c297,690$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,071.3510420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes2c151,120$2,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,684.842010%2 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes3c61,915$2,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,130.723423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes6c52,102$3,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,144.814820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c47,000$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165820%0 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ed…a63bbacked Yes3c45,976$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.912611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked Yes2c44,772$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.59728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c36,200$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.2525.8%3 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f41…0c00backed Yes1c35,228$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.161637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick23cpaid-20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x05c7…4421backed Yes0c32,112$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes3c31,422$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.092516%4 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8329…96c2backed Yes2c30,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49db…2019backed Yes4c29,603$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.09185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-79%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes0c25,612$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.134712.8%6 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb678…f74dbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c20,935$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.54783.8%3 W · 75 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-94.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc440…d1adbacked Yes2c20,798$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.181118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-69.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf35b…983bbacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3784…a20bbacked Yes3c19,903$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.8860%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce7…f553backed Yes2c19,725$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.532611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-79.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaf3…a699backed Yes1c18,249$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.92611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce82…b52ebacked Yes5c17,651$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-81.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes0c14,884$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.54728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d4d…e4dfbacked Yes2c13,974$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.051118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes0c12,662$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.572711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-80.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2328…5adabacked Yes2c12,609$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.09425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe899…0899backed Yes2c12,355$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.2950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x308f…35cabacked Yes1c11,514$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbb…7cdbbacked Yes2c10,887$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.55128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes0c10,282$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.13277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70f5…61cabacked Yes2c10,158$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.5550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf54b…a190backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes0c9,100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.455038%19 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x322e…bae4backed Yes3c8,568$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.581926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-45.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c8,545$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.13630%0 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c8,177$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7365.6%2 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-81.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2f…07a0backed Yes1c7,964$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.48147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-64.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3831…9f13backed Yes3c6,928$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.1760%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c5,950$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.52960%0 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes0c5,555$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8990%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02d…98d6backed Yes3c5,474$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedfa…2cd9backed Yes0c5,100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d2…84e7backed Yes0c5,033$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes1c5,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413312.1%4 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-75.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes2c4,961$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.976412.5%8 W · 56 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4b3…57adbacked Yes5c4,638$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes7c4,627$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3081020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x284b…8b4cbacked Yes2c4,309$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c4,129$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.57611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-96.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes2c4,008$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.65200%0 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b66…b033backed Yes0c4,003$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes3c3,311$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.72910.3%3 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-54.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ba1…0d6ebacked Yes4c3,230$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.18270%0 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab8…93d1backed Yes1c3,174$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes2c3,116$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.91118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-65.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked Yes2c3,021$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x337e…44d3backed Yes2c3,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick3cpaid+87.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f77…a9a9backed Yes3c2,823$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.082128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68da…ee52backed Yes3c2,672$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes5c2,657$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.28132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd651…bb00backed Yes4c2,632$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes1c2,501$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.592927.6%8 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe010…fae9backed Yes3c2,474$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c2,279$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8320021.5%43 W · 157 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes2c2,200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes2c2,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe69a…faf3backed Yes1c2,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed Yes3c2,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.78119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-88.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cdc…65a8backed Yes2c2,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes2c2,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes1c1,988$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.854320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-58.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd36a…5bc2backed Yes3c1,946$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x337e…4287backed Yes1c1,847$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes2c1,690$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.98185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-69%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1958…310bbacked Yes5c1,672$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.45248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ec…313fbacked Yes1c1,667$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x472a…9033backed Yes2c1,633$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2306…2815backed Yes2c1,606$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.12540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick13cpaid+102.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes4c1,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.55740.4%23 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8815…e147backed Yes1c1,500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid+22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc363…ffadbacked Yes2c1,378$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c1,320$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5612322.8%28 W · 95 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed Yes3c1,261$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.381216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-48.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes2c1,200$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8250%0 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f1…bc37backed Yes4c1,159$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-19.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x62e2…b2bbbacked Yes2c1,150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d6…60d9backed Yes2c1,025$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes3c1,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2526…32f6backed Yes3c1,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2660%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb95…6da1backed Yes2c999.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes1c989.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.846235.5%22 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-30.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23ec…be01backed Yes3c976.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa577…a22abacked Yes1c940.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f25…cf87backed Yes2c937.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick15cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb07b…1812backed Yes5c891.18$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d01…d54bbacked Yes2c884$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce4e…1da9backed Yes1c864$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1837…1821backed Yes1c836$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ced…8a3dbacked Yes1c836$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.