TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7024…4c4c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
372
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
17

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 52 out of 100; worst Tweets at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST1922.1%4 W · 188 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-83.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 192 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$21.94
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$30.4
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$12.8
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$22.34
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$16.2
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$15.5
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.54
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.6
Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$168
Will Elon tweet 450–474 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.06
Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.46
Will Elon tweet 420–449 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.5
Will Elon tweet 390–419 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$202.4
Will Elon tweet 395–409 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.58
Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 360–389 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$84.03
Will Elon tweet 350–364 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon tweet 330–359 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Will Elon tweet 300–329 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.04
Showing 25 of 192 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST380%0 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$22.2
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$29.4
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$37.2
Will the Government shutdown end by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$33
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.72
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.48
Will Elon Musk leave the Trump administration first?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration first?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Peter Navarro leave the Trump administration first?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump 10% China tariff increase go into effect by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Trump releases Epstein list today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20.01
Will 500k or more federal employees accept the buyout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10.22
Will Trump impose tariffs on any country before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will $Trump FDV be $5-10b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will $Trump FDV be $15-20b on Feb 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10.24
Ten or more Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Nine Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$14.8
Will ICE detain 1200 or more people on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump's approval rating be between 54% and 56% on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48% and 50% on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump's approval rating be between 50% and 52% on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$11.15
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST340%0 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 42% and 44%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 40% and 42%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will the Left Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will the Unitary Democratic Coalition (PCP+PEV) win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Cristian Sima win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will the next Pope be from South America?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will 3-4 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.49
Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.06
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will the CDU/CSU win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.7
Will the AfD win more than 26% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.3
Will the AfD win between 24% and 26% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.75
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.38
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$93.4
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%0 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$110
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$22.8
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$48
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$55.32
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$11.7
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.6
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$76
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$23
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 25 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-92.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+64.9%+$162.58
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$17.05
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$87.99
Will xAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$14.89
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Alibaba have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$30.2
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$77.2
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$143
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$12.8
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,611Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,611.07
Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will another company be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump post about Sam Altman by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 21 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brevis FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$52
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.97
Rainbow FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.99
No airdrop in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$28.16
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$37
Lighter Airdrop on December 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$10.4
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.1
Will Infrared launch a token by December 31 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$22
HumidiFi FDV above $80M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will 0XOMNIA win the PvP trading competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10.19
Will FEI win the PvP trading competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will CITED win the PvP trading competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will $TRUMP hit $10 or $20 first?backed $10 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 15 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana dip to $80 in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.4
Will Solana dip to $100 in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Chainlink reach $16 in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+669.2%+$95.7
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.1
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.8
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Bitcoin reach $118k in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Bitcoin all time high before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Andrii Yermak arrested by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.2
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.5
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.68
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.29
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.05
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by next Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST50%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jason Kelce attend Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Florida win the SEC Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$16
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.