Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bfd30241a98afd4fcd17e110948fbcb30775094d785dc1dd49251e0a0d2b6ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 31,860$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.8 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 28,500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,004$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 5,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 11c | 5,483$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.68 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 5,056$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.12 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 4,814$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.18 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,649$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 4,061$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.52 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 3,236$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 5c | 2,624$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.64 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 9c | 1,823$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.38 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 4c | 1,691$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 7c | 1,476$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 5c | 1,457$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 10c | 1,443$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.97 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed Yes | 11c | 1,310$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.9 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 8c | 1,284$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.23 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…7456backed Yes | 6c | 1,106$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…73cabacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…8405backed Yes | 12c | 992.47$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 892.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 833.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…4adcbacked Yes | 10c | 700.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 699.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…a8eebacked Yes | 10c | 680.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 11c | 658.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 11c | 642.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…0389backed Yes | 8c | 639.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 11c | 579.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 7c | 432.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 6c | 385.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b95…1fa4backed Yes | 9c | 371$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 7c | 362.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 6c | 357.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 9c | 304.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…3646backed Yes | 10c | 285$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 5c | 274.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b22…acb2backed Yes | 7c | 267.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…d073backed Yes | 11c | 226.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…239abacked Yes | 9c | 208.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 7c | 203.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1536…0562backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 8c | 175$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b1…7e0abacked Yes | 8c | 171.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…c298backed Yes | 8c | 167$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…5c9dbacked Yes | 11c | 153.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 8c | 151.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…63b8backed Yes | 10c | 142$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c39…9bdcbacked Yes | 8c | 138.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…f7fcbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230–244 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 245–259 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 260–274 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–289 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 290–304 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 305–319 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 320–334 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 335–349 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–364 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 365–379 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 395–409 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 410–424 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–439 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 440–454 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 215 times August 8–August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.