Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5651902f679d2307323444dbbfe9b73363bcf2f9225474ec07a1c3e5c541575
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $694,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $733,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $694,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 22c | 65,785$14,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,534.82 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 51c | 32,365$16,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,975.74 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 39c | 15,318$6,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,310.06 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed No | 13c | 14,575$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,956.81 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 35c | 13,600$4,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,817.67 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed No | 1c | 10,507$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 32c | 9,674$3,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,606.05 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 36c | 9,250$3,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,885.16 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 67c | 9,223$6,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,040.74 | 663 | 22.3%148 W · 515 L | -34.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes | 61c | 7,816$4,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,010.65 | 93 | 19.4%18 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 63c | 7,132$4,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,644.94 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed No | 12c | 6,367$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.39 | 628 | 12.3%77 W · 551 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 5,677$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,709.68 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 8c | 5,050$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,664.33 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.97 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed No | 10c | 4,700$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.89 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 50c | 4,508$2,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,267 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…24d6backed Yes | 31c | 4,259$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,948.3 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 4,162$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,011.76 | 2,589 | 13.1%340 W · 2,249 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 30c | 3,883$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.62 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked No | 17c | 3,696$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.94 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed No | 5c | 3,618$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.72 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 6c | 3,613$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,391.59 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 10c | 3,405$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,061.31 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e8…5fd0backed No | 5c | 3,272$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 12c | 3,183$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.75 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 31c | 3,086$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,113.91 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 76c | 3,068$2,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.57 | 629 | 13.2%83 W · 546 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked No | 67c | 3,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0e…fdb4backed Yes | 25c | 2,953$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked No | 10c | 2,802$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.85 | 526 | 9.9%52 W · 474 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 12c | 2,610$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,297.92 | 654 | 11%72 W · 582 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 28c | 2,525$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.27 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…cd3abacked No | 42c | 2,376$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 52c | 2,229$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.87 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 8c | 2,213$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.78 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 39c | 2,000$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.11 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 51c | 1,954$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.64 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 66c | 1,897$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.05 | 350 | 16%56 W · 294 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 73c | 1,797$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.85 | 574 | 17.2%99 W · 475 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 22c | 1,744$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.88 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…e11fbacked No | 19c | 1,739$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.55 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…a914backed Yes | 47c | 1,714$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 1,707$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.04 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 76c | 1,700$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.15 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 1,627$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.52 | 2,188 | 3.9%85 W · 2,103 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…929fbacked Yes | 72c | 1,515$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.61 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a47…cd7abacked Yes | 7c | 1,439$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,414.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 75c | 1,351$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.39 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 41c | 1,338$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.19 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee1a…b41cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,317$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.43 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…7456backed Yes | 59c | 1,265$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.28 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 63c | 1,201$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.87 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 1,199$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.49 | 529 | 45.9%243 W · 286 L | -19.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…a8eebacked Yes | 16c | 1,131$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 34c | 1,102$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.81 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed No | 16c | 1,073$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 57c | 1,062$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 13c | 1,000$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c25…92bfbacked No | 14c | 1,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…3a25backed No | 73c | 1,000$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 4c | 998.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.99 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0223…34d1backed Yes | 78c | 922.64$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.6 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 16c | 906.3$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.58 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…2f85backed No | 38c | 903.91$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 896.6$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.41 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f2…3056backed Yes | 51c | 741.74$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…e221backed Yes | 27c | 703.01$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.84 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 62c | 700.48$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.01 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…4adcbacked Yes | 11c | 700$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.8 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 74c | 692.48$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.43 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 71c | 671.33$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.7 | 125 | 21.6%27 W · 98 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 74c | 665.93$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.1 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked Yes | 15c | 653.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 38c | 631.69$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.91 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 45c | 627.42$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.52 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed No | 16c | 610.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 11c | 607.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…5e4dbacked Yes | 10c | 602.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.38 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.8 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked No | 54c | 600$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.35 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed Yes | 64c | 600$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 13c | 597.92$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.11 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 7c | 596.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.85 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 4c | 555$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.18 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 28c | 550.5$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.38 | 428 | 20.8%89 W · 339 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…1eeebacked Yes | 55c | 548.2$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.2 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Yes | 30c | 516.81$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.77 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…68e2backed Yes | 11c | 499.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 14c | 498.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 45c | 494.61$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.1 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed Yes | 32c | 486.93$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.14 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 18c | 481.86$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.03 | 181 | 21%38 W · 143 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 71c | 459.48$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.22 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed No | 48c | 459.39$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…d30abacked Yes | 5c | 435.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.57 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 63c | 431$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.74 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 29c | 429.83$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.94 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…8e97backed Yes | 15c | 417.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.9 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15?this page
- Will Elon tweet 215–229 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 230–244 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 245–259 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 260–274 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–289 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 290–304 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 305–319 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 320–334 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 335–349 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–364 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 365–379 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 380–394 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 395–409 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 410–424 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425–439 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 440–454 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 215 times August 8–August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.