TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x055e…de32

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
104
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Tweets, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 56 out of 100; worst AI at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT4736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+192.9%+$34.73
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+263.9%+$71.26
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.59
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+334.8%+$40.17
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+163.2%+$32.63
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+111.8%+$22.37
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+47.9%+$20.77
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+458.7%+$87.15
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$68
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.9
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+61.7%+$32.86
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$12.27
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$64
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+49.2%+$79.2
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.92
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT+26.3%+$16.66
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+33.7%+$29.52
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+157.3%+$235.3
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+132.4%+$196.59
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT2650%13 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$20.42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$106
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$429Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$429
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$351
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,031Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$281.77
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+30%+$30.04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+102.5%+$220.45
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$35.76
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$31.14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+33.1%+$86.9
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$5.05
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.6
Successful Houthi attack on shipping by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+26.3%+$21.57
Will Israel not strike Yemen by October 1 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$8.46
Will Israel strike Yemen 2 times by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+63.1%+$33.43
Will Israel strike Yemen 3 times by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.42
Israel strikes 3 different countries by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+97.6%+$67.65
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.53
Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.64
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$188.18
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+96.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a hurricane form by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$21.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+50%+$34.51
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.