Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabb86b080e9858dcb3f46954010e49b6f539c20036856c7f999395bfd58d01e6

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,754,060
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $39,565,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,754,060 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 11,215 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes	7c	1,062,627$79,675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79,675.08	97	36.1%35 W · 62 L	+5.6wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6452…9874backed Yes	11c	629,248$69,780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69,780.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes	14c	616,500$83,817 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83,817.02	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f50…bb6abacked Yes	7c	591,737$43,918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43,918	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes	5c	376,584$18,421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,420.82	63	36.5%23 W · 40 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked No	74c	349,921$259,183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90,737.67	165	53.9%89 W · 76 L	+7.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No	61c	341,920$208,520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133,399.99	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb29…975ebacked Yes	25c	314,848$79,880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79,880.01	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes	13c	294,083$37,038 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37,038.28	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd576…d5e3backed Yes	54c	276,684$149,524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149,523.74	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-3.5wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes	24c	271,326$66,276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66,276.35	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-37%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Yes	15c	253,067$37,964 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37,963.85	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No	45c	223,701$101,359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122,341.93	75	38.7%29 W · 46 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75f…d8d3backed Yes	9c	205,293$17,630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,629.69	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	20c	194,813$39,139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39,139.04	141	29.8%42 W · 99 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No	66c	183,357$121,355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62,001.48	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed No	76c	181,596$138,267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43,329.42	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-5.0wins	-0.17per pick	52cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No	59c	166,855$98,793 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68,061.84	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	58cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes	27c	162,214$43,292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43,292.27	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+2.8wins	+0.15per pick	22cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes	20c	160,989$32,501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32,501.34	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes	7c	159,855$11,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,349.62	43	0%0 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9636…b7b7backed No	32c	153,996$49,258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104,738	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.37per pick	38cpaid	+75.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe07a…6adbbacked Yes	16c	153,064$24,995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,994.55	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.8wins	-0.26per pick	44cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No	42c	136,950$58,203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78,747.87	126	50.8%64 W · 62 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No	72c	133,155$96,018 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37,136.87	377	40.1%151 W · 226 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26a4…af3fbacked Yes	16c	127,754$19,994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,993.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes	20c	123,279$25,205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,204.51	161	25.5%41 W · 120 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0260…b0a4backed Yes	23c	120,380$28,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28,000	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes	7c	119,219$8,231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,230.6	73	11%8 W · 65 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes	14c	119,018$16,525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,525.45	126	34.9%44 W · 82 L	+8.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes	28c	118,846$33,311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33,311.36	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d15…c454backed No	76c	118,022$89,778 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28,244.51	44	65.9%29 W · 15 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes	28c	115,790$32,303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32,303.03	138	23.2%32 W · 106 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3da8…8262backed Yes	34c	114,451$39,077 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39,077.35	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	64c	111,960$71,561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71,560.86	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes	18c	111,318$20,447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20,447.48	353	47%166 W · 187 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5c…0c2abacked No	74c	109,845$80,819 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29,025.78	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No	73c	107,200$78,585 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28,615.38	81	37%30 W · 51 L	-9.2wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Yes	13c	100,000$13,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,999.97	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc37c…cd7ebacked Yes	18c	96,858$17,065 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,064.73	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked No	62c	94,774$58,939 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35,835.32	58	46.6%27 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4b9…cdccbacked Yes	8c	94,331$7,986 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,985.87	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes	30c	93,063$28,329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28,328.65	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d47…e488backed Yes	20c	91,576$18,526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,526.17	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No	77c	91,375$70,606 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,769.29	61	34.4%21 W · 40 L	-5.4wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-42%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed No	65c	90,951$59,357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31,593.99	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes	3c	90,762$2,570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,569.55	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes	27c	89,803$24,329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24,328.55	120	38.3%46 W · 74 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes	40c	88,549$35,209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35,208.94	37	70.3%26 W · 11 L	+10.0wins	+0.27per pick	43cpaid	+109.7%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	70c	87,179$60,979 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26,200.28	287	50.2%144 W · 143 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ef…f35fbacked Yes	31c	83,861$26,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26,002.18	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	-19%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	25c	82,867$21,123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21,123.07	404	33.7%136 W · 268 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc19…eaffbacked Yes	2c	80,192$1,843 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,842.92	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes	10c	78,586$7,858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,857.93	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes	15c	77,319$11,734 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,734.34	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No	67c	76,785$51,558 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25,227.05	511	38.7%198 W · 313 L	+18.7wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes	23c	74,936$17,596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,596.15	88	45.5%40 W · 48 L	+9.5wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4be9…1442backed Yes	13c	74,524$9,414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,414.07	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed No	69c	72,714$50,494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22,220.02	54	31.5%17 W · 37 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes	20c	70,897$13,952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,952.49	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	+10.5wins	+0.20per pick	27cpaid	+27%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Yes	27c	70,359$19,134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,133.83	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No	78c	69,399$53,857 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,541.63	177	55.4%98 W · 79 L	+17.5wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes	48c	69,168$33,306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33,305.68	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-3.8wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefd0…bf24backed Yes	19c	68,753$12,735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,734.74	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	20c	67,908$13,773 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,773.49	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…b72cbacked No	48c	67,525$32,487 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35,037.98	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	36cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf18c…847ebacked Yes	4c	67,391$2,395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,395.36	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22f9…a93bbacked Yes	9c	65,168$6,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,000	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	24cpaid	-76.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	26c	64,413$16,664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,664.09	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	+11.6wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked No	74c	64,401$47,803 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,597.54	46	65.2%30 W · 16 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b0b…2a9dbacked Yes	15c	64,084$9,915 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,915	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd517…5f34backed Yes	5c	64,060$3,177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,176.67	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf155…76bdbacked Yes	11c	63,846$7,095 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,095.35	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes	16c	63,803$10,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,500	61	32.8%20 W · 41 L	+11.3wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+296.6%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed No	75c	63,331$47,781 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,550.05	47	59.6%28 W · 19 L	+6.6wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+169.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5531…c763backed Yes	3c	62,057$1,758 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,758.37	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02d8…0c91backed Yes	26c	61,918$16,342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,341.86	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.17per pick	52cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe950…5038backed Yes	7c	61,189$4,178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,177.52	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf035…d1fdbacked Yes	25c	60,136$14,832 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,831.56	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.30per pick	50cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fde…6a60backed Yes	7c	59,975$4,442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,442.19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacb0…2044backed Yes	32c	59,150$18,934 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,933.68	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No	75c	58,521$43,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,820.8	74	62.2%46 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9419…4430backed Yes	29c	58,061$17,053 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,053	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+111.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No	67c	56,208$37,565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,643.18	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	23c	55,824$12,815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,815.12	458	43.7%200 W · 258 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f82…9b01backed Yes	10c	55,248$5,525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,524.75	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa363…801abacked Yes	17c	55,109$9,623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,623.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf920…665fbacked Yes	5c	54,958$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	5cpaid	+396.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes	19c	54,446$10,463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,462.72	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	+12.7wins	+0.16per pick	35cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	16c	53,133$8,655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,655.05	442	24.4%108 W · 334 L	+22.2wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed No	70c	53,030$37,272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,758.25	108	37%40 W · 68 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0df…69c5backed Yes	9c	52,883$4,908 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,908.34	47	29.8%14 W · 33 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f1c1backed No	79c	52,568$41,621 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,946.52	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd7f…27a5backed Yes	20c	52,396$10,520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,519.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…fbbfbacked Yes	28c	51,958$14,755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,754.57	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes	53c	51,873$27,626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27,626.33	207	36.2%75 W · 132 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	26c	50,621$13,170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,169.92	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-37%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f7…4e1cbacked Yes	35c	50,165$17,618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,617.75	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked No	73c	50,075$36,752 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,322.97	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed Yes	23c	49,293$11,474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,473.65	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?this page
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event