TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$283,107
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$273,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,107 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No56c52,649$29,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,694.6214821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes41c35,690$14,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,134.027732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes45c25,992$11,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,209.1816553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes59c19,197$11,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,793.464854.2%26 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f54…5d12backed Yes51c15,655$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,654.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eaa…c521backed Yes64c15,228$9,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,450.081338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+269.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0f5…d9d1backed Yes52c8,848$4,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,228.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-68.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes42c8,488$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,948.5312038.3%46 W · 74 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No9c7,070$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.4721531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes55c6,711$3,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,011.958450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No54c5,750$3,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,090.9719531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No1c5,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes47c4,879$2,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,580.4320336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eb0…d25bbacked No62c4,000$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,480812.5%1 W · 7 L-4.4wins-0.55per pick67cpaid-78.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No52c3,622$1,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,882.1751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No1c3,400$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes35c3,333$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,155.398150.6%41 W · 40 L+12.7wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+33.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes46c3,277$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.9112245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecf1…e64bbacked No2c3,129$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aa2…3170backed Yes41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7703946.2%18 W · 21 L+8.3wins+0.21per pick25cpaid+112.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed No21c3,000$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6156056.7%34 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x471e…e6ddbacked Yes50c2,319$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.2613100%13 W · 0 L+8.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+376.5%equal weight75+0.23 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No53c2,010$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.9226138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes72c1,939$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.6264339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes45c1,742$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.779736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa92a…39bdbacked Yes56c1,600$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.561764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No10c1,600$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16015625%39 W · 117 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+79.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7055964.4%38 W · 21 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+50%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x11ee…85febacked Yes38c1,458$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+80.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No12c1,420$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.284928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ae…8eb7backed Yes34c1,400$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.222653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+100.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No31c1,230$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.7258927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No21c1,198$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.6830649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No13c1,121$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15015629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No66c1,060$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.622927.1%62 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No11c974$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1450130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes47c908.85$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.5442818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c3e…403abacked Yes56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.862339.1%9 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f1…0d81backed No65c769.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ef6…c761backed Yes51c745.1$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick27cpaid+72.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed No24c720.17$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.5615541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c573.05$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.6667841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef60…88a7backed Yes35c571.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.432240.9%9 W · 13 L+5.8wins+0.26per pick15cpaid+159.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xceea…ad73backed No9c543.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50120%0 W · 12 L-5.0wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No52c522.35$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.629942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68f5…37adbacked Yes39c518.81$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.81850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked No50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503330.3%10 W · 23 L-11.0wins-0.33per pick64cpaid-57.6%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0xd27b…3966backed No16c500$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.53125.8%8 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5930…236abacked No16c500$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.53525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x991b…f19abacked Yes54c499.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2305145.1%23 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes65c469.89$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.837052.9%37 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa446…754ebacked No51c445.08$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6db2…a781backed Yes43c400$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22810043%43 W · 57 L+13.0wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+13.5%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes58c395.76$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.612343.9%54 W · 69 L+15.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes49c363.32$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.0235819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No35c357.76$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.2229254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No3c355.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.685071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No45c342.21$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.7312944.2%57 W · 72 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked No57c333$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.818139.5%32 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbef7…0b4dbacked No51c308.84$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.727727.3%21 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0138…8451backed Yes35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.711782.4%14 W · 3 L+7.5wins+0.44per pick38cpaid+130.5%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes52c277.52$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.5935652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98e0…bf01backed No64c268.9$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.11233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-45.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked No47c265.96$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254134.1%14 W · 27 L-9.5wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-53.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x52dd…d79fbacked No9c263.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.682828.6%8 W · 20 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+104.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No44c262.41$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2120035.5%71 W · 129 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6f3…2568backed No66c247.6$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1633438.2%13 W · 21 L-8.2wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-39.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes42c243.21$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.065756.1%32 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes48c230.79$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.7989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x811f…16e3backed No52c230$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.62860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+53.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9724…fbc7backed Yes34c229.59$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.537610.5%8 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1412…b6debacked No66c228.47$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150119.1%1 W · 10 L-6.5wins-0.59per pick68cpaid-88.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xb86f…0f01backed Yes49c227$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.773100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+185.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9745…efe5backed Yes55c222.48$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.47580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f6…a17fbacked No48c219.29$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No52c215.38$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11218929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No62c204.85$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.475219.2%10 W · 42 L-12.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-62.8%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x3c14…ffa5backed No60c200.12$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.07150%0 W · 15 L-8.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8dd8…cca3backed No13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266041.7%25 W · 35 L+12.5wins+0.21per pick21cpaid+102.7%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x3d38…d383backed No51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022548%12 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3731…9afcbacked No66c200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132137.7%1 W · 12 L-6.9wins-0.53per pick61cpaid-87.8%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x05c8…a2f8backed No22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446437.5%24 W · 40 L+8.3wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+29.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No35c199.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705429.6%16 W · 38 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-47.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes34c199.96$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.988538.8%33 W · 52 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked No50c199.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.052236.4%8 W · 14 L-7.1wins-0.32per pick69cpaid-52.3%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5b31…bac4backed No55c197.84$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.99150%0 W · 15 L-7.1wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xafe5…6d1dbacked Yes53c188.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e93…e4f7backed Yes54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.19966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked No17c185$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x556d…a75cbacked Yes56c179.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.351866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21b4…a50dbacked Yes46c169.35$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0888…aad3backed No65c153.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002321.7%5 W · 18 L-9.8wins-0.43per pick64cpaid-72.2%equal weight27-0.20 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No52c150$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.536035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb0f…559abacked No59c150$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89175.9%1 W · 16 L-10.0wins-0.59per pick65cpaid-92.6%equal weight24-0.24 edge/pick
0xdd28…374abacked No69c149.93$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.452412.5%3 W · 21 L-11.4wins-0.47per pick60cpaid-81%equal weight24-0.23 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No19c149.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.344827.1%13 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+72.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed No51c147.16$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752231.8%7 W · 15 L-6.9wins-0.32per pick63cpaid-56.8%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No46c147$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0931728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x7e0f…708ebacked No61c144.31$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.813638.9%14 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.