Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf98a7ee2b96f9f3f95a66b62f19cac40c48421f75a976bad7cd402758a54e3d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $283,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 56c | 52,649$29,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,694.62 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 41c | 35,690$14,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,134.02 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 45c | 25,992$11,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,209.18 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 59c | 19,197$11,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,793.46 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f54…5d12backed Yes | 51c | 15,655$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,654.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…c521backed Yes | 64c | 15,228$9,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,450.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +269.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…d9d1backed Yes | 52c | 8,848$4,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,228.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 42c | 8,488$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,948.53 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 9c | 7,070$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.47 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 55c | 6,711$3,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,011.95 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 54c | 5,750$3,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,090.97 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 1c | 5,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 47c | 4,879$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580.43 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…d25bbacked No | 62c | 4,000$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.4wins | -0.55per pick | 67cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 52c | 3,622$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,882.17 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 1c | 3,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 35c | 3,333$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,155.39 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 46c | 3,277$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.91 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecf1…e64bbacked No | 2c | 3,129$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…3170backed Yes | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 21c | 3,000$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471e…e6ddbacked Yes | 50c | 2,319$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.26 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +8.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +376.5%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 53c | 2,010$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.92 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 1,939$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.62 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 45c | 1,742$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.77 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa92a…39bdbacked Yes | 56c | 1,600$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.56 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 1,600$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x11ee…85febacked Yes | 38c | 1,458$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 12c | 1,420$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.28 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…8eb7backed Yes | 34c | 1,400$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.22 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 1,230$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.72 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 21c | 1,198$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.68 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 13c | 1,121$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 66c | 1,060$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.6 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 11c | 974$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 47c | 908.85$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.54 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3e…403abacked Yes | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…0d81backed No | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef6…c761backed Yes | 51c | 745.1$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 24c | 720.17$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.56 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 573.05$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.66 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…88a7backed Yes | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.43 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +5.8wins | +0.26per pick | 15cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…ad73backed No | 9c | 543.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -5.0wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 52c | 522.35$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.62 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f5…37adbacked Yes | 39c | 518.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -11.0wins | -0.33per pick | 64cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 16c | 500$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…236abacked No | 16c | 500$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked Yes | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 65c | 469.89$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.83 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…754ebacked No | 51c | 445.08$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 58c | 395.76$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.6 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 49c | 363.32$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.02 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 35c | 357.76$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.22 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 355.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 45c | 342.21$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.73 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked No | 57c | 333$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked No | 51c | 308.84$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.72 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +7.5wins | +0.44per pick | 38cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 52c | 277.52$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.59 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e0…bf01backed No | 64c | 268.9$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked No | 47c | 265.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -9.5wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…d79fbacked No | 9c | 263.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 44c | 262.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.21 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f3…2568backed No | 66c | 247.6$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -8.2wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 42c | 243.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.06 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 48c | 230.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.79 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…16e3backed No | 52c | 230$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 34c | 229.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.53 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1412…b6debacked No | 66c | 228.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -6.5wins | -0.59per pick | 68cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb86f…0f01backed Yes | 49c | 227$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +185.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9745…efe5backed Yes | 55c | 222.48$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…a17fbacked No | 48c | 219.29$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 52c | 215.38$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No | 62c | 204.85$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.47 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3c14…ffa5backed No | 60c | 200.12$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.07 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -8.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +12.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…9afcbacked No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -6.9wins | -0.53per pick | 61cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 34c | 199.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.98 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ba…621fbacked No | 50c | 199.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -7.1wins | -0.32per pick | 69cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5b31…bac4backed No | 55c | 197.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -7.1wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xafe5…6d1dbacked Yes | 53c | 188.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…e4f7backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked No | 17c | 185$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556d…a75cbacked Yes | 56c | 179.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.35 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…a50dbacked Yes | 46c | 169.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…aad3backed No | 65c | 153.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -9.8wins | -0.43per pick | 64cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…559abacked No | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -10.0wins | -0.59per pick | 65cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 24-0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 69c | 149.93$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -11.4wins | -0.47per pick | 60cpaid | -81%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 19c | 149.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…8b14backed No | 51c | 147.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -6.9wins | -0.32per pick | 63cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 147$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…708ebacked No | 61c | 144.31$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.