Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42911c6ff6bc9f36adb99592a9ecd5e31e14e7dfe9beef7c2b18c36b0db23cc4

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 14, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,335,543
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,157,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,335,543 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 983 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x53e5…6177backed Yes	4c	82,250$3,155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,155.24	138	23.2%32 W · 106 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9586…8320backed Yes	5c	46,037$2,244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,243.59	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes	5c	39,697$2,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,003.2	126	34.9%44 W · 82 L	+8.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb273…aa63backed Yes	6c	36,693$2,164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,164.31	74	23%17 W · 57 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x466a…c444backed Yes	7c	36,423$2,452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,452.18	48	20.8%10 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes	6c	35,569$2,123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,122.8	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-84.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes	3c	33,970$1,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,037.48	432	12.5%54 W · 378 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc0…8a4dbacked Yes	5c	33,650$1,595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,595.11	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9346…cb76backed Yes	9c	33,436$3,090 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,090.38	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes	7c	31,319$2,194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,193.58	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	31,156$3,015 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,015.08	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes	5c	30,313$1,381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,380.5	312	41.7%130 W · 182 L	+15.4wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+66.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c3c…8f25backed Yes	4c	29,995$1,257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,257.1	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	27cpaid	-73.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04d8…1f93backed Yes	7c	27,443$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes	8c	25,510$1,926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,926.48	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b74…4127backed Yes	9c	25,297$2,304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,304.28	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea98…8626backed Yes	6c	24,809$1,574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,574.23	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0490…2a0dbacked Yes	5c	24,324$1,149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,148.97	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79be…b605backed Yes	8c	24,071$1,835 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,835	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0778…1276backed Yes	4c	23,461$1,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,007.74	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4487…1ec1backed Yes	8c	23,120$1,833 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,832.93	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-72.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes	6c	21,497$1,274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,274.45	75	38.7%29 W · 46 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…aa35backed Yes	6c	20,833$1,337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,337.5	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x362c…39dbbacked Yes	14c	20,035$2,761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,760.65	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-3.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6da…07a4backed Yes	6c	19,230$1,240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,240	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes	5c	17,043$816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$816.08	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…3a18backed Yes	7c	17,020$1,113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,113.01	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-2.2wins	-0.15per pick	22cpaid	-88.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes	5c	16,283$805 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$804.8	120	38.3%46 W · 74 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe151…6a5fbacked Yes	4c	16,003$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.73	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd350…02d6backed Yes	7c	15,600$1,092 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,091.99	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes	8c	13,898$1,074 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,074	43	0%0 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea7…7e1cbacked Yes	15c	13,594$2,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,100	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes	9c	13,340$1,140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,140	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.16per pick	21cpaid	-85.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe754…9baabacked Yes	17c	13,335$2,325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,324.91	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x536d…c4d6backed Yes	7c	12,662$902 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$901.91	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	17cpaid	-77.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e18…941abacked Yes	6c	11,983$674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$673.79	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-17%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes	4c	11,771$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.3	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x467f…b1dbbacked Yes	4c	11,614$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.6	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-3.0wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	5c	11,605$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.05	423	29.1%123 W · 300 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3903…e027backed Yes	11c	10,628$1,210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,210.35	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes	7c	10,286$763 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$762.86	73	11%8 W · 65 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed Yes	8c	10,109$782 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$782.1	44	0%0 W · 44 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e81…2e25backed Yes	4c	10,031$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4a…e049backed Yes	8c	9,999$767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766.58	34	50%17 W · 17 L	+8.2wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+98.5%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xace1…4c3abacked Yes	6c	9,605$561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9758…536dbacked Yes	4c	9,234$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.05	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	12cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	9,104$647 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$647.06	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes	8c	9,000$691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.25	427	38.9%166 W · 261 L	+30.7wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8300…b903backed Yes	11c	8,731$974 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$974.38	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	7c	8,678$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.57	462	5%23 W · 439 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc640…1748backed Yes	17c	8,589$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes	3c	8,582$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.7	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	6c	8,480$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.64	82	7.3%6 W · 76 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	8,230$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.13	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	8cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed Yes	5c	8,131$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.55	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-44%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd87…848fbacked Yes	5c	8,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a1e…a5bebacked Yes	2c	8,000$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.65	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.19per pick	21cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes	6c	7,931$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.28	367	50.4%185 W · 182 L	+39.6wins	+0.11per pick	40cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb22f…d8a0backed Yes	6c	7,804$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.4	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7256…de57backed Yes	7c	7,619$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4942…71f0backed Yes	1c	7,377$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed Yes	7c	7,353$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	44	25%11 W · 33 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	9c	7,200$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640.11	442	24.4%108 W · 334 L	+22.2wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbae2…05f2backed Yes	3c	7,188$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.97	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	+182.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cc2…2995backed Yes	8c	6,976$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.41	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-56%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x80ea…5595backed Yes	5c	6,949$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.36	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Yes	4c	6,823$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.96	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb23c…10febacked Yes	2c	6,816$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c32…b464backed Yes	2c	6,806$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157	64	7.8%5 W · 59 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes	1c	6,799$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.62	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	39cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50b3…059cbacked Yes	3c	6,727$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf6…6fc4backed Yes	10c	6,568$645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bcf…324ebacked Yes	7c	6,545$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.63	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	34cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1287…e491backed Yes	11c	6,459$693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$693.05	47	17%8 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f33…a23abacked Yes	4c	6,255$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.64	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-85.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81cb…b34abacked Yes	12c	6,137$751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$751.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ca…2bf7backed Yes	4c	5,904$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf13b…cc04backed Yes	5c	5,828$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.18per pick	27cpaid	-86.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ae8…3ee1backed Yes	2c	5,828$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.92	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes	5c	5,789$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.21	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ad…aa8cbacked Yes	7c	5,559$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.1	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe348…67e3backed Yes	6c	5,545$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.05	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-81.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7982…97b7backed Yes	7c	5,401$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes	9c	5,286$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc4…2ed3backed Yes	1c	5,204$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.32	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.16per pick	9cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	6c	5,191$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.92	143	0.7%1 W · 142 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-92.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Yes	11c	5,149$554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.65	108	38%41 W · 67 L	+11.5wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	+62.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	5c	5,096$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.3	404	33.7%136 W · 268 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1247…c139backed Yes	6c	5,082$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03af…87cbbacked Yes	4c	5,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8944…c3fdbacked Yes	17c	5,000$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49a8…c35fbacked Yes	6c	4,997$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.84	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	9c	4,979$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.9	156	29.5%46 W · 110 L	+8.9wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes	8c	4,891$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	20cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes	10c	4,821$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	4,763$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.83	419	5.3%22 W · 397 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Yes	1c	4,700$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.81	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	26cpaid	+46.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7de9…3dd2backed Yes	8c	4,670$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf8…fb62backed Yes	9c	4,646$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.47	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+32.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x042d…cb53backed Yes	3c	4,567$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.44	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-2.4wins	-0.15per pick	28cpaid	-81.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?this page
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event