Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfabc0ff190e456ad309ec0559554b4549f90aebcd636d9a6293a89abf5c78722
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,469,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,468,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,469,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 623 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc75f…d8d3backed Yes | 3c | 200,126$5,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,314.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 153,982$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.28 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0240…e3a1backed Yes | 5c | 81,252$4,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,344.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…5038backed Yes | 4c | 71,761$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,050 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd517…5f34backed Yes | 5c | 63,987$3,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,236.32 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…75a8backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 4c | 41,396$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,586.64 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7b…3303backed Yes | 6c | 37,466$2,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,102 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…b0debacked Yes | 6c | 36,323$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…fd99backed Yes | 3c | 35,299$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.77 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 4c | 32,915$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.04 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5531…c763backed Yes | 2c | 32,873$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 0c | 30,061$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 4c | 30,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.97 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f9…a93bbacked Yes | 7c | 28,166$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 4c | 24,971$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.8 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…0f88backed Yes | 5c | 24,641$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 4c | 23,876$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.47 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 9c | 22,815$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042.97 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…e643backed Yes | 2c | 22,761$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 5c | 22,019$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.37 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…2e40backed Yes | 8c | 18,676$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 2c | 18,500$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf122…ed1abacked Yes | 8c | 16,766$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…0f33backed Yes | 2c | 15,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 14,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…d304backed Yes | 6c | 14,922$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d41…2dfabacked Yes | 1c | 13,981$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…8588backed Yes | 8c | 13,829$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 3c | 13,002$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.36 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 5c | 12,587$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.78 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…250abacked Yes | 7c | 12,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3b…6a99backed Yes | 5c | 11,976$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.65 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…fdf3backed Yes | 7c | 11,531$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 3c | 11,453$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.96 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…53e6backed Yes | 3c | 10,962$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe63e…525abacked Yes | 5c | 10,755$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b13…ee28backed Yes | 1c | 10,382$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 3c | 10,215$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.84 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…384ebacked Yes | 5c | 10,083$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.19 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 6c | 10,037$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.84 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 5c | 10,000$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.29 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 1c | 9,533$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66bc…25c9backed Yes | 8c | 9,352$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…50f9backed Yes | 4c | 9,250$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.94 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…2e6bbacked Yes | 7c | 9,122$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…e31cbacked Yes | 2c | 8,951$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -86%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 3c | 8,888$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.66 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e1…d3e6backed Yes | 2c | 8,617$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 3c | 8,425$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.64 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5495…d542backed Yes | 3c | 8,358$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.37 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…b75abacked Yes | 8c | 8,347$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26b…d049backed Yes | 6c | 8,267$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…5787backed Yes | 6c | 8,204$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…97b7backed Yes | 2c | 7,954$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be9…1442backed Yes | 6c | 7,853$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…dfcdbacked Yes | 5c | 7,813$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 6c | 7,732$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.37 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes | 1c | 7,692$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…6e29backed Yes | 7c | 7,600$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.4 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +197.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed Yes | 0c | 7,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bf…84c7backed Yes | 4c | 7,307$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.09 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +5.3wins | +0.28per pick | 30cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb624…3905backed Yes | 5c | 7,286$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 1c | 6,979$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 7c | 6,879$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.14 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4e…6664backed Yes | 3c | 6,728$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ae…6264backed Yes | 0c | 6,700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 6,554$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.45 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 6,454$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.97 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…32f9backed Yes | 6c | 6,368$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.6 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…d4bbbacked Yes | 8c | 6,340$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 5c | 6,250$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.23 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…6fc4backed Yes | 9c | 6,196$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.6 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Yes | 6c | 6,184$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.73 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4f…07c4backed Yes | 3c | 6,158$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.12 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…4464backed Yes | 2c | 6,157$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…9457backed Yes | 7c | 6,124$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb200…7f34backed Yes | 1c | 6,097$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3dd1backed Yes | 4c | 6,016$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 6c | 5,878$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.68 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…cc5bbacked Yes | 8c | 5,719$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c1…bec7backed Yes | 5c | 5,685$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb202…c33fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,662$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e05…b079backed Yes | 1c | 5,556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f52…9fbabacked Yes | 2c | 5,556$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…fa91backed Yes | 3c | 5,545$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…a78dbacked Yes | 7c | 5,409$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.99 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6da…07a4backed Yes | 4c | 5,263$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb03d…de29backed Yes | 2c | 5,003$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2222…3f39backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…de5cbacked Yes | 6c | 4,983$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81cb…170cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,980$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ea…533fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,973$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…9309backed Yes | 4c | 4,817$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…a19ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,594$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…5fa6backed Yes | 1c | 4,538$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528b…1880backed Yes | 7c | 4,515$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a25…24bcbacked Yes | 7c | 4,477$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 4c | 4,401$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.57 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.