Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fcd8d30e559d75d1f1ac26fb61c118910d271a55ecce8e05367b1a6114bf20e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,629,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,454,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,629,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 862 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 567,850$3,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,675.44 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…bf24backed Yes | 2c | 285,462$5,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,504.42 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 203,723$9,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,046.27 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5531…c763backed Yes | 2c | 200,087$4,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,005.51 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 1c | 148,179$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.12 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 10c | 114,145$11,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,054.13 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5a91backed Yes | 1c | 105,265$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…e203backed Yes | 14c | 95,000$13,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,299.98 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 1c | 94,577$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.27 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 10c | 81,414$8,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,165.02 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd517…5f34backed Yes | 2c | 79,033$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.01 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…b980backed Yes | 1c | 75,431$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 1c | 73,003$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.02 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 1c | 70,941$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.25 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 1c | 64,568$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.55 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 1c | 63,000$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 0c | 51,962$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.23 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 2c | 51,155$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.11 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…75a8backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 2c | 49,900$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.19 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x257c…6e08backed Yes | 1c | 49,577$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 2c | 48,221$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.79 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 1c | 41,408$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.14 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 1c | 40,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271a…5d93backed Yes | 12c | 38,493$4,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,509.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39de…a94bbacked Yes | 8c | 38,127$2,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,977.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 1c | 37,289$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.76 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…97e2backed Yes | 1c | 36,364$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +418.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 4c | 35,775$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfebf…33e7backed Yes | 1c | 33,321$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 7c | 32,720$2,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 2c | 32,685$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.33 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 2c | 31,372$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.5 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 1c | 29,993$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.6 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 9c | 29,771$2,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,727.56 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 1c | 29,012$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.03 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…3455backed Yes | 1c | 28,800$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.45 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 15c | 27,225$3,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,952.66 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 27,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 1c | 25,555$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.77 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 8c | 23,540$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.99 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes | 1c | 22,882$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.91 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked Yes | 15c | 22,058$3,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,308.76 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…3f16backed Yes | 1c | 20,723$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b9…cdccbacked Yes | 24c | 20,570$4,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,951.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…2e6bbacked Yes | 7c | 20,476$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…53e6backed Yes | 4c | 20,000$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.73 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…847ebacked Yes | 6c | 19,775$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 18,647$2,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.16 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec1…f613backed Yes | 1c | 18,269$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d47…3d5abacked Yes | 1c | 18,182$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 17,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 6c | 16,809$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…6e29backed Yes | 11c | 16,804$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.64 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +197.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 1c | 16,660$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.93 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 1c | 15,678$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…da4abacked Yes | 14c | 15,216$2,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112.17 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4f…07c4backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 2c | 14,850$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.45 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…d684backed Yes | 1c | 14,381$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 2c | 14,052$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.81 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…d28fbacked Yes | 0c | 14,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…edc5backed Yes | 12c | 13,825$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…6e0dbacked Yes | 6c | 13,523$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 2c | 13,441$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…849cbacked Yes | 5c | 13,150$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a1…3124backed Yes | 4c | 13,098$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 3c | 12,790$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.29 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…8592backed Yes | 1c | 12,181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 11,918$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.27 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 1c | 11,914$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14df…41babacked Yes | 10c | 11,899$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…e31cbacked Yes | 2c | 11,775$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -86%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…30febacked Yes | 10c | 11,620$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 9c | 11,300$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.89 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f6…3737backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dcf…f45abacked Yes | 1c | 10,700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 6c | 10,523$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.67 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb519…860dbacked Yes | 15c | 10,200$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbed…10f7backed Yes | 17c | 10,096$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…3bd1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd8…0e4dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 4cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…cd6dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 9c | 10,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xccee…f36dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,928$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 14c | 9,862$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.12 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes | 0c | 9,846$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…e125backed Yes | 10c | 9,722$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f26…816cbacked Yes | 12c | 9,670$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab06…689bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,625$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ee…752bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,526$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e87…3534backed Yes | 1c | 9,494$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…b4b6backed Yes | 1c | 9,300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…a19ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,298$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 9,213$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.41 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…83cebacked Yes | 3c | 9,153$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf34…8816backed Yes | 9c | 8,912$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 1c | 8,900$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.