TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,629,658
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,454,948

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,629,658 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 862 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa579…aad0backed Yes1c567,850$3,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,675.448610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefd0…bf24backed Yes2c285,462$5,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,504.421612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes4c203,723$9,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,046.2748923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5531…c763backed Yes2c200,087$4,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,005.512025%5 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes1c148,179$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.12430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes10c114,145$11,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,054.1319531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce4…5a91backed Yes1c105,265$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-63.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Yes14c95,000$13,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,299.981414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes1c94,577$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.273010%3 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes10c81,414$8,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,165.023823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd517…5f34backed Yes2c79,033$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.01387.9%3 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-88.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x027e…b980backed Yes1c75,431$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.88520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-46.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes1c73,003$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.02368.3%3 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-84.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes1c70,941$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.252619.2%5 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick7cpaid+212.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes1c64,568$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.5513823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes1c63,000$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5716336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes0c51,962$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.2343212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes2c51,155$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.11220%0 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34d2…75a8backed Yes1c50,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502015%3 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-64.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes2c49,900$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.192015%3 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x257c…6e08backed Yes1c49,577$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c48,221$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.7919119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes1c41,408$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.1416537%61 W · 104 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b02…4991backed Yes1c40,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x271a…5d93backed Yes12c38,493$4,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,509.76450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes8c38,127$2,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,977.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes1c37,289$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.7640433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eaf…97e2backed Yes1c36,364$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400425%1 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick2cpaid+418.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes4c35,775$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5006132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xfebf…33e7backed Yes1c33,321$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes7c32,720$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,304.241050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes2c32,685$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.3335631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes2c31,372$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.533337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes1c29,993$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6600%0 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes9c29,771$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.561926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-60.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Yes1c29,012$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.034420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffff…3455backed Yes1c28,800$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.451711.8%2 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes15c27,225$3,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,952.664415.9%7 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c27,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.54769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes1c25,555$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.771128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes8c23,540$1,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,833.997311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes1c22,882$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.91240%0 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf155…76bdbacked Yes15c22,058$3,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,308.762763%17 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9dd…3f16backed Yes1c20,723$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.550%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4b9…cdccbacked Yes24c20,570$4,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,951.920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c5…2e6bbacked Yes7c20,476$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bab…53e6backed Yes4c20,000$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.73140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18c…847ebacked Yes6c19,775$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.9370%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c18,647$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,304.1689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ec1…f613backed Yes1c18,269$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d47…3d5abacked Yes1c18,182$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c17,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2108817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes6c16,809$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97642329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcae5…6e29backed Yes11c16,804$1,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.64238.7%2 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+197.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes1c16,660$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9313532.6%44 W · 91 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes1c15,678$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.428530.6%26 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa3…da4abacked Yes14c15,216$2,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,112.171553.3%8 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.25per pick28cpaid+71.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb4f…07c4backed Yes1c15,000$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135230%0 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes2c14,850$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.45280%0 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7c…d684backed Yes1c14,381$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19350%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5320…f3b2backed Yes2c14,052$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.81128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-84.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8611…d28fbacked Yes0c14,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28150%0 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96f4…edc5backed Yes12c13,825$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.151540%6 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e5c…6e0dbacked Yes6c13,523$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-72.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes2c13,441$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb9…849cbacked Yes5c13,150$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20a1…3124backed Yes4c13,098$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes3c12,790$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.2915523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xed3f…8592backed Yes1c12,181$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes1c11,918$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.27260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes1c11,914$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.4280%0 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14df…41babacked Yes10c11,899$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b7d…e31cbacked Yes2c11,775$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-86%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01f7…30febacked Yes10c11,620$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16280%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes9c11,300$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.89827.3%6 W · 76 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-79.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6f6…3737backed Yes1c11,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dcf…f45abacked Yes1c10,700$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.71612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-80.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked Yes6c10,523$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.677929.1%23 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb519…860dbacked Yes15c10,200$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbed…10f7backed Yes17c10,096$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701.741861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe14…3bd1backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-81.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick6cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bd8…0e4dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick4cpaid-24.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x557e…5007backed Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506546.2%30 W · 35 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+92.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa67d…cd6dbacked Yes1c10,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401225%3 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes9c10,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86015232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xccee…f36dbacked Yes1c9,928$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes14c9,862$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.127337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes0c9,846$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402910.3%3 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82c7…e125backed Yes10c9,722$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002920.7%6 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f26…816cbacked Yes12c9,670$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab06…689bbacked Yes1c9,625$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2ee…752bbacked Yes1c9,526$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001030%3 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick19cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e87…3534backed Yes1c9,494$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254850%24 W · 24 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-3.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x67ea…b4b6backed Yes1c9,300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.390%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e04…a19ebacked Yes1c9,298$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0980%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes2c9,213$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.4151138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17e…83cebacked Yes3c9,153$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf34…8816backed Yes9c8,912$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes1c8,900$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.918929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.