Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76a213c1f24dd30025a9f20355341a7a0fefcf1499b7c015ebd8493f55794d7a

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,908,538
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,216,196

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,908,538 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,575 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7744…999ebacked Yes	2c	237,473$5,543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,543.34	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes	1c	186,233$2,738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,737.8	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes	4c	157,075$6,658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,658.31	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…fbbfbacked Yes	19c	105,600$20,005 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20,004.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes	14c	104,500$14,213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,212.6	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes	2c	100,870$1,729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,729.27	43	0%0 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes	1c	94,956$905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$905.06	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-4.9wins	-0.13per pick	43cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes	4c	73,589$2,842 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,841.9	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	+6.0wins	+0.12per pick	23cpaid	+44%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes	0c	61,878$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.18	88	17%15 W · 73 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed Yes	7c	60,000$4,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,200	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-6.0wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2b76…edefbacked Yes	3c	57,886$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,999.61	63	36.5%23 W · 40 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9758…536dbacked Yes	10c	51,993$5,268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,268.18	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	12cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes	2c	48,775$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200.26	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	+116.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	7c	44,303$3,062 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,062.02	141	29.8%42 W · 99 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd517…5f34backed Yes	2c	42,321$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.5	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes	3c	41,994$1,441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,440.59	75	38.7%29 W · 46 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3bb…2667backed Yes	22c	40,017$8,607 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,606.54	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-62.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes	3c	37,778$1,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,164.94	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-6.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	+149.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	7c	34,920$2,390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,390.05	82	7.3%6 W · 76 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x776f…0478backed Yes	11c	33,936$3,638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,637.75	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes	2c	33,021$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537.7	72	0%0 W · 72 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes	8c	32,774$2,609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,608.64	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-37%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes	2c	31,251$745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$744.92	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f5d…78fbbacked Yes	16c	31,079$4,909 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,908.53	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e5b…073bbacked Yes	20c	30,466$6,228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,228.24	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No	80c	29,998$23,975 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,023.51	177	55.4%98 W · 79 L	+17.5wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcae5…6e29backed Yes	3c	29,921$749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$749.33	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+197.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb06…250abacked Yes	7c	28,485$1,914 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,913.79	31	6.5%2 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-86.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes	13c	27,616$3,537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,537.04	161	25.5%41 W · 120 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed Yes	20c	27,000$5,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,469.98	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes	3c	26,906$753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$753.12	195	31.8%62 W · 133 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdabe…69f6backed Yes	1c	26,885$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.74	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd780…edb2backed Yes	36c	26,309$9,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,500	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a3…5f96backed Yes	7c	25,810$1,905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,904.96	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes	2c	24,927$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.2	333	37.5%125 W · 208 L	+12.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb0…2044backed Yes	20c	24,811$5,045 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,045.45	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7319…0299backed Yes	3c	24,550$819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$819.13	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5265…0fb6backed Yes	6c	23,995$1,360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,360	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	17c	23,460$3,874 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,874.11	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc37c…cd7ebacked Yes	13c	22,837$2,969 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,968.86	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Yes	14c	22,751$3,161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,161	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	-20%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3890…41a3backed Yes	7c	22,109$1,610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,610.09	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-3.9wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes	3c	21,564$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660.54	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.16per pick	21cpaid	-85.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x389d…5866backed Yes	9c	21,549$1,959 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,958.96	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1897…34cbbacked Yes	12c	21,544$2,691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,691	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes	1c	20,833$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.16	432	12.5%54 W · 378 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc921…7dd6backed Yes	4c	20,306$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$825	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-89.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f7…4e1cbacked Yes	14c	19,001$2,686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,686.21	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed Yes	2c	18,023$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.22	44	0%0 W · 44 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x145a…5e86backed Yes	20c	17,416$3,419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,418.66	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f01…558fbacked Yes	6c	17,085$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc57f…8423backed Yes	4c	16,384$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabe9…4424backed Yes	1c	15,400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.2	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+3.1wins	+0.14per pick	22cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes	2c	15,273$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.98	191	19.9%38 W · 153 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3b…6a99backed Yes	1c	15,205$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.89	20	5%1 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-51%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x577c…51b5backed Yes	9c	15,028$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5d…91d8backed No	79c	14,981$11,876 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,105.24	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50bf…1304backed Yes	20c	14,859$3,011 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,010.73	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3372…6d37backed Yes	20c	14,713$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes	10c	14,699$1,517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,517.02	44	15.9%7 W · 37 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	11c	14,680$1,657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,656.51	442	24.4%108 W · 334 L	+22.2wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb003…b34ebacked Yes	2c	14,651$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.26	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked Yes	9c	14,437$1,298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,297.7	79	29.1%23 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33c5…2230backed Yes	2c	14,365$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.51	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes	10c	13,767$1,371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,371.12	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25ff…6938backed Yes	10c	13,646$1,365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,364.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yes	2c	13,500$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	161	31.7%51 W · 110 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5d…fcf1backed Yes	9c	13,386$1,207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,206.93	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cc8…2a93backed Yes	3c	12,840$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes	1c	12,781$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.53	73	11%8 W · 65 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c41…dc46backed Yes	2c	12,700$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.2	41	2.4%1 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-86.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes	3c	12,659$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.02	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-84.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f0d…2f2fbacked Yes	4c	12,574$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	37cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes	12c	12,500$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,499.99	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef9a…5f7dbacked Yes	13c	12,303$1,583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,582.85	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01da…6283backed Yes	9c	12,276$1,078 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,078.09	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b69…ee2ebacked Yes	10c	11,857$1,186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,185.7	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0795…2b00backed Yes	6c	11,829$710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$710	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd73…f3e4backed Yes	10c	11,524$1,187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,187	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	2c	11,468$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267	62	3.2%2 W · 60 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1d…c6debacked Yes	1c	11,373$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa5d…ab88backed Yes	2c	11,305$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.48	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d9…a783backed Yes	7c	11,199$772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$771.78	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb8…e48fbacked Yes	1c	10,879$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b07…d3d7backed Yes	3c	10,840$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.64	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0fb…d4bbbacked Yes	8c	10,743$865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$865	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+30.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes	3c	10,506$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f0…4be4backed Yes	8c	10,202$775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$775.32	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed Yes	5c	10,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc714…4141backed Yes	3c	10,000$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.79	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No	80c	10,000$7,950 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,050	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	58cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b32…83fbbacked Yes	11c	9,731$1,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,095.86	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+82%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13c7…d794backed Yes	10c	9,725$979 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$979	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes	15c	9,706$1,464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,464.22	377	40.1%151 W · 226 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x054a…f218backed Yes	2c	9,598$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…b75abacked Yes	4c	9,564$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.29	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	26cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d15…c454backed No	80c	9,533$7,627 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,906.66	44	65.9%29 W · 15 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed No	76c	9,429$7,126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,303.02	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+80.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x008d…9ce3backed Yes	1c	9,312$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.93	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b7f…2c50backed Yes	10c	9,278$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?this page
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event