TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7d5d…91d8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
88
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lollast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT5149%25 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Seasonbacked Dignitas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.99
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 4 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$708Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+54.2%+$383.78
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$260
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 1 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$344.11
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 3 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$295.43
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 2 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+300%+$30
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$426Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+76.5%+$325.44
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$707Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$706.79
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.88
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+68.7%+$150.73
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.81
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffsbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+72.4%+$84
LoL: Disguised vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stagebacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$70
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+92.3%+$24
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stagebacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$526Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$526.03
LoL: SK Gaming vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seasonbacked SK Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$124
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$38
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seasonbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$239.45
Games Total: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$1,199.98
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$620Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+61.3%+$380
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10,751Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$10,750.85
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19,308Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$19,308.14
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$5,851Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+80.5%+$4,711.24
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,148Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$1,147.77
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$48,922Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.7%+$27,749.7
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,193Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$917.88
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$79,833Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$24,026.54
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+300%+$216.62
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+1,304.6%+$4,412.29
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$168.22
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$6,808Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$6,807.92
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20,838Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20,837.61
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,552Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,552
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$2,348Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+423.8%+$9,949.33
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$55,765Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+33.7%+$18,784.38
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$17,855Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+84.1%+$15,017.4
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11,876Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+26.1%+$3,105.24
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$567Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$566.93
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,794Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+45.5%+$1,272.55
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.89
All 16 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Ian Machado Garry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Ilia Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$381.72
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+222.6%+$69
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed O'Malley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+37.6%+$82
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Moreno · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$23.99
UFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Cejudo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$109.09
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Della Maddalena · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$40.5
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhangbacked Zhang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$296.4
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Cortes-Acostabacked Pavlovich · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+33.8%+$41.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+61.7%+$190.72
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$206.22
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI browser by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,743Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+38%+$662.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$5,703Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+26.3%+$1,501.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Sep 20, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: KT vs HLEbacked KT · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$299.44
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.