TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,130,896
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,441,077

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,130,896 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,717 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No80c145,531$116,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,106.444045%18 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf810…b6e3backed Yes13c126,653$15,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,853.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No77c120,132$92,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,957.874650%23 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc449…2b31backed Yes10c95,242$9,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,850.98728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes15c80,666$12,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,457.21118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes26c80,381$20,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,8701822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes14c79,996$11,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,222.411838.9%7 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No74c78,379$57,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,493.374156.1%23 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes6c77,822$4,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,293.4443212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e2…6808backed Yes12c72,493$8,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,728.11812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-79.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89bf…e477backed Yes20c72,484$14,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No77c72,029$55,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,873.33135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xd661…6e34backed Yes17c71,464$12,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,10030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed No77c71,361$54,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,494.531450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes10c65,298$6,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,212.712128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcf4…8108backed Yes16c54,412$8,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,434.7440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbbb…05a8backed Yes25c54,380$13,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,633.33922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-58.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x456b…eb7ebacked Yes31c53,812$16,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,722.531747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5739…0126backed Yes11c52,834$5,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,772.322240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a11…de12backed Yes17c52,105$9,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,046.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes17c51,800$9,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,025.660%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c47,502$7,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,781.7189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes7c47,362$3,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,317.956141%25 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cde…38dabacked Yes15c42,944$6,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,654250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+133.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9758…536dbacked Yes12c42,884$5,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,203.37254%1 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-49.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes16c41,175$6,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,554.11425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0fd…eebebacked Yes15c41,001$5,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,965.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e43…0f92backed Yes4c40,732$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3eb…3d21backed Yes7c40,203$2,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,770.830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes16c40,100$6,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,443.872528%7 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes4c39,997$1,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.2210634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a53…4e80backed Yes21c38,803$8,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,265.371136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes12c37,601$4,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,469.895827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e1…ec8fbacked Yes32c37,447$11,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,800.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+209.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5964…776bbacked Yes16c37,002$6,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,028.571833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes18c36,827$6,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,575.3236750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes13c36,109$4,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,672.348450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes3c34,338$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.914418.2%8 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3d…35d0backed Yes32c34,157$10,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,76630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes8c32,878$2,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5814533.3%15 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes14c32,794$4,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,511.427014.3%10 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-45%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb065…ccffbacked Yes17c32,645$5,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,395.16616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f8a…9506backed Yes31c30,893$9,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,4751338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x234d…76c1backed No80c30,327$24,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,212.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+46.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc460…80c0backed Yes26c30,190$7,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,947.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes11c29,550$3,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,340.517413.5%10 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-54.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes18c28,413$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000248.3%2 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-87.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x975a…73fabacked Yes8c27,023$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,027.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No73c27,000$19,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,205.985745.6%26 W · 31 L-8.3wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-33.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3094…3cc7backed Yes13c26,376$3,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,369.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No76c26,330$19,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,330.5835347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e31…901ebacked Yes16c26,119$4,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,244.58119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-76.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x037e…0c63backed Yes26c25,895$6,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,855.093336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d46…6233backed Yes11c25,579$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,864.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe162…8a81backed Yes23c25,231$5,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,801.453033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+38.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9622…01efbacked Yes18c24,095$4,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,277.182748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…adf8backed Yes18c24,064$4,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,376.834938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes18c23,851$4,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,214.9935819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Yes16c23,847$3,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,764.74633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf414…67fbbacked Yes20c23,389$4,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,666.111241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes16c23,289$3,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,660.2742738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa022…774ebacked Yes19c22,382$4,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,362.43616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55fe…6fc7backed Yes21c22,343$4,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,696.74862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+58.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc6b…afc9backed Yes16c22,312$3,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,530.021250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x020b…d13cbacked No76c21,978$16,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,168.921637.5%6 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.26per pick63cpaid-43.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes13c21,858$2,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,833.813250%16 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed Yes11c21,512$2,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,409.362642.3%11 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d30…7805backed Yes8c21,413$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.92933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes23c21,045$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,900.128641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1cf…7f9ebacked Yes14c20,834$2,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,951.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes26c20,638$5,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,326.461931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No74c20,372$15,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,298.99955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes16c20,342$3,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,319.092450%12 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4fc…bdccbacked Yes17c19,829$3,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,352.11633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+103.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes9c19,780$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.1656336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4107…e29cbacked No74c19,683$14,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,063.53650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2641…b80dbacked Yes18c19,622$3,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,465.96728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes20c19,603$4,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,010.992429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad50…038ebacked Yes26c18,467$4,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,726.541758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+55.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Yes24c18,416$4,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,384.7190%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5fe…e320backed Yes24c18,378$4,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,497.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4824…ce01backed Yes18c17,904$3,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,273.9850%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72a1…b63dbacked No79c17,864$14,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,689.26650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes1c17,740$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.46190%0 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x962b…2a9bbacked Yes23c17,620$4,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,006.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db1…46a4backed Yes21c17,400$3,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,624.552634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes8c17,366$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.084231%13 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf05…b6cebacked Yes12c17,195$2,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,068.08520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-66.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb7e…46b8backed Yes21c17,053$3,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,501.66728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6811…6895backed Yes21c16,795$3,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,467.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes13c16,723$2,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,196.76439.3%4 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa472…24f9backed Yes6c16,293$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9389…aaffbacked Yes18c16,081$2,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949.13110%0 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef45…666fbacked Yes23c15,991$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,699.672733.3%9 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+77.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x83c3…aa49backed Yes20c15,648$3,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,067.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes15c15,394$2,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,327.132213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-76.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes18c15,171$2,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,756.6112245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes16c15,152$2,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,354.814769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7967…f4a0backed No73c14,844$10,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,058.56966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes5c14,564$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.31235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.