Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b2b69401b202d313f8909800ca7e5b1c631de6782d0b74e7cc827e1873abfb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,130,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,441,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,130,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,717 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 80c | 145,531$116,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,106.44 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf810…b6e3backed Yes | 13c | 126,653$15,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,853.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 77c | 120,132$92,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,957.87 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2b31backed Yes | 10c | 95,242$9,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,850.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 15c | 80,666$12,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,457.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes | 26c | 80,381$20,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,870 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes | 14c | 79,996$11,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,222.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 74c | 78,379$57,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,493.37 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 6c | 77,822$4,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,293.44 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e2…6808backed Yes | 12c | 72,493$8,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,728.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bf…e477backed Yes | 20c | 72,484$14,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 77c | 72,029$55,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,873.3 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…6e34backed Yes | 17c | 71,464$12,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed No | 77c | 71,361$54,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,494.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes | 10c | 65,298$6,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,212.71 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf4…8108backed Yes | 16c | 54,412$8,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,434.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…05a8backed Yes | 25c | 54,380$13,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,633.33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456b…eb7ebacked Yes | 31c | 53,812$16,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,722.53 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…0126backed Yes | 11c | 52,834$5,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,772.32 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…de12backed Yes | 17c | 52,105$9,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,046.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 17c | 51,800$9,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,025.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 47,502$7,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,781.71 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 7c | 47,362$3,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,317.95 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…38dabacked Yes | 15c | 42,944$6,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,654 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9758…536dbacked Yes | 12c | 42,884$5,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,203.37 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 16c | 41,175$6,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,554.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…eebebacked Yes | 15c | 41,001$5,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,965.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…0f92backed Yes | 4c | 40,732$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3eb…3d21backed Yes | 7c | 40,203$2,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,770.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 16c | 40,100$6,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,443.87 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 4c | 39,997$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.22 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…4e80backed Yes | 21c | 38,803$8,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,265.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 12c | 37,601$4,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,469.89 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e1…ec8fbacked Yes | 32c | 37,447$11,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,800.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +209.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…776bbacked Yes | 16c | 37,002$6,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,028.57 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 18c | 36,827$6,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,575.32 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 13c | 36,109$4,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,672.34 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 3c | 34,338$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.91 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3d…35d0backed Yes | 32c | 34,157$10,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,766 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes | 8c | 32,878$2,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,581 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 14c | 32,794$4,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,511.42 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb065…ccffbacked Yes | 17c | 32,645$5,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,395.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…9506backed Yes | 31c | 30,893$9,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,475 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234d…76c1backed No | 80c | 30,327$24,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,212.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…80c0backed Yes | 26c | 30,190$7,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,947.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 11c | 29,550$3,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,340.51 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 18c | 28,413$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x975a…73fabacked Yes | 8c | 27,023$2,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,027.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 73c | 27,000$19,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,205.98 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…3cc7backed Yes | 13c | 26,376$3,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,369.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 76c | 26,330$19,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,330.58 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e31…901ebacked Yes | 16c | 26,119$4,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,244.58 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…0c63backed Yes | 26c | 25,895$6,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,855.09 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d46…6233backed Yes | 11c | 25,579$2,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,864.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 23c | 25,231$5,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,801.45 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked Yes | 18c | 24,095$4,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,277.18 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…adf8backed Yes | 18c | 24,064$4,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,376.83 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 18c | 23,851$4,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,214.99 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 16c | 23,847$3,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,764.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…67fbbacked Yes | 20c | 23,389$4,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,666.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 16c | 23,289$3,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,660.27 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…774ebacked Yes | 19c | 22,382$4,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,362.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fe…6fc7backed Yes | 21c | 22,343$4,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,696.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…afc9backed Yes | 16c | 22,312$3,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,530.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked No | 76c | 21,978$16,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,168.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 13c | 21,858$2,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,833.81 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 11c | 21,512$2,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,409.36 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…7805backed Yes | 8c | 21,413$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 23c | 21,045$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900.12 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cf…7f9ebacked Yes | 14c | 20,834$2,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,951.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 26c | 20,638$5,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,326.46 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 74c | 20,372$15,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,298.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 16c | 20,342$3,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,319.09 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fc…bdccbacked Yes | 17c | 19,829$3,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,352.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 9c | 19,780$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,707.16 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…e29cbacked No | 74c | 19,683$14,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,063.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2641…b80dbacked Yes | 18c | 19,622$3,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,465.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 20c | 19,603$4,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,010.99 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…038ebacked Yes | 26c | 18,467$4,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,726.54 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…f867backed Yes | 24c | 18,416$4,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,384.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fe…e320backed Yes | 24c | 18,378$4,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,497.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…ce01backed Yes | 18c | 17,904$3,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,273.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked No | 79c | 17,864$14,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,689.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 1c | 17,740$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.46 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x962b…2a9bbacked Yes | 23c | 17,620$4,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,006.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db1…46a4backed Yes | 21c | 17,400$3,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,624.55 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 8c | 17,366$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.08 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf05…b6cebacked Yes | 12c | 17,195$2,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,068.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7e…46b8backed Yes | 21c | 17,053$3,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,501.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6811…6895backed Yes | 21c | 16,795$3,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,467.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 13c | 16,723$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,196.76 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa472…24f9backed Yes | 6c | 16,293$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…aaffbacked Yes | 18c | 16,081$2,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,949.13 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…666fbacked Yes | 23c | 15,991$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,699.67 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…aa49backed Yes | 20c | 15,648$3,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,067.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes | 15c | 15,394$2,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,327.13 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 18c | 15,171$2,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,756.61 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 16c | 15,152$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,354.81 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…f4a0backed No | 73c | 14,844$10,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,058.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 14,564$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.3 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.