TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd7f1…73cd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
739
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT56336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 563 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.1
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$399.36
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$780Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$779.99
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.73
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$77
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$77
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$74
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+300%+$395.1
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.7
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.18
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.15
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$324.5
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.4
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+195.8%+$38.61
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+327.4%+$1,299.44
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+327.4%+$383
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.68
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+595.7%+$607.95
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+580.1%+$1,571.86
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$68
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.04
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$223
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+89.6%+$63.24
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+236.1%+$562
Showing 25 of 563 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3122.6%7 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+98%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$204.13
Megaquake by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$233.2
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+168.3%+$431.79
Megaquake by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.02
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$317.02
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.95
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.5
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.27
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.98
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$53.42
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+1,724.6%+$491.42
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+1,023.6%+$547.02
Megaquake by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$138.3
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$610Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$610.43
Megaquake by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.4
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$34
Megaquake by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$48
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.96
Megaquake by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.4
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+1,328.6%+$278.95
Megaquake by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$402Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+39.9%+$160.71
Megaquake before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+1,100%+$2,750
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT2835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+29.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.08
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$278.28
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+119.4%+$190.5
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Trump out as President in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$12.44
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.76
Will Trump visit Egypt by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+27.8%+$13
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$322.06
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.39
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$541Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$541.4
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.36
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$174.29
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,029Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,029.24
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$187.17
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.23
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$307Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+30.5%+$93.5
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June  27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT+59.6%+$67.2
Will the U.S. strike Fordow nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+167%+$418.41
US military action against Iran by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,980Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+312.5%+$6,188.43
US military action against Iran by Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+1,112.7%+$1,752.99
US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$912Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+673%+$6,139.98
US military action against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$264.6
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT2814.3%4 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of August 3 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.78
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of August 3 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of August 3 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of August 3 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.2
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of July 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of July 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.85
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+825.5%+$1,401.54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$155.98
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.5
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$242
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$386Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$386.32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of May 18 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.77
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of May 18 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$38
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.85
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of April 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.91
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of April 20 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.05
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+305.3%+$965.66
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.52
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of April 6 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.66
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of April 6 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.26
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestoneslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT250%0 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 August 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 August 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.27
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$281
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$751Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$751
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$186
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 29-July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.79
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$529Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$528.84
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$498Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$497.84
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$59
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.5
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$51.67
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$129
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$16.29
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$60.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$25.9
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 1-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$16.4
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 1-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$15.95
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$90
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$86.07
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$38.65
All 25 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+33.3%+$25
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+38.9%+$28
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$122.75
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$354.21
U.S. forces seize another oil ship by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+74.4%+$89.59
U.S. forces seize another oil ship by January 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+115.7%+$114.53
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+126.8%+$61.5
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$751Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$751.5
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+170.3%+$126
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+212.5%+$55.08
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.06
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.3
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$97
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$30.19
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$172.54
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$13.9
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+316.3%+$775.26
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$15.36
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$112.11
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$41.73
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$40.88
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$135.54
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$28
All 23 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT2321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+1,823.3%+$948
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$61
Ukraine strike on Moscow municipality by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$71.07
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$125.99
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$89
Ukraine hits Moscow by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$15.14
Russian strike on a NATO member by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.9
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$389.13
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.19
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.6
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.22
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+163.5%+$67.07
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+83%+$225.06
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+57.8%+$36.62
Ukraine hits Moscow by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.91
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$147.89
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.92
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+128.3%+$56.2
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$203.5
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$116.95
Ukraine hits Moscow before 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$31
All 23 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$106.78
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+48.5%+$68.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$84.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$59.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.17
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.