TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2ff1…72eb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
88
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST3250%16 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,304Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,304.05
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+34.6%+$519.34
Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$305
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$390.34
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$3,737Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,736.91
Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$916Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$916
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14,152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14,151.57
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,128Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$1,128
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$752Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+272.3%+$2,048
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+525%+$839.99
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10,022Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+49.7%+$4,978.95
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10,712Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+197.4%+$21,148.95
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will Israel strike Yemen 2 times by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$510.38
EU sanctions on Iran by September 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$347Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$347
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,624Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,623.87
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$702Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$701.69
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$913Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+174.6%+$1,593.85
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,019Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+333.6%+$6,735.85
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,834Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,833.81
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,520Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,519.95
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,812Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+147.6%+$2,674.52
Khamenei seen in public before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,361Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+47.2%+$1,587.65
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+34%+$33.95
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT3231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-40.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$6,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$6,770.41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25,862Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25,861.93
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$210
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$6,978Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$6,978.27
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,300
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,428Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+45.2%+$1,098.36
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$173.85
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$45,168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45,167.61
Will Trump meet with Putin by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,393Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,393.02
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$304
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$167
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+26.6%+$10.62
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$723Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$722.59
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,226Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,225.51
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$530
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$539Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$539
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$658Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$658
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$270.37
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$275
Will Russia capture Siversk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$312.84
India agrees to reduce purchases Russian oil by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$141
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$132.56
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for 10 seconds or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,154.93
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,511Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,510.53
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,645Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+101.8%+$2,692.29
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+76.8%+$307.12
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$4,248Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,248.49
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$7,228Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+156.9%+$11,337.74
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+131.6%+$525.21
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,067Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+44.3%+$915.09
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$945Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$945.08
US military action against Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$84
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.28
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$705Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+113%+$796.95
All 13 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-68.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+178.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+464.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+464.6%+$464.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Champions League: Inter Milan vs. Barcelona (To Advance)backed Inter Milan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+58%+$187.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by August 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+55.2%+$331.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+39.1%+$195.45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.