TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,983 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6225…bc21backed Yes11c9,246$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.86728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick19cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes16c3,355$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.355121.6%11 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes20c3,299$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.945425.9%14 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed No75c3,279$2,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.165248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes6c3,079$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.6742818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb999…8441backed Yes28c2,946$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.12911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick35cpaid-72.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3201…6634backed Yes22c2,932$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.632055%11 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes18c2,782$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.840828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bac…6634backed Yes6c2,025$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.51266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+66.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes14c1,935$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.2748923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c65…3e45backed No70c1,768$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.493043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+81.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes24c1,480$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.1627643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes27c1,445$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.343250%16 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes33c1,415$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.0311728.2%33 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc5e3…4603backed Yes29c1,356$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0887…b235backed Yes14c1,300$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1823729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes12c1,223$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.635044%22 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes7c1,166$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.041332.3%3 W · 130 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes13c1,110$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7156336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x750a…d86cbacked No62c1,100$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes35c861.91$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.63230%0 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f3c…e5dcbacked Yes14c850$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1191040%4 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+47%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No74c672.41$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.9848630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbea…19f4backed Yes40c663.64$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.754528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97d3…3f3cbacked No69c646.07$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.975756.1%32 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc04…5ee2backed Yes20c619.7$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked No73c566.67$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.6711136.9%41 W · 70 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes8c564.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.326423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed No77c556.16$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.9421160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe241…ba7abacked Yes26c546.48$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.71464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes18c540.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.954114.6%6 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb76f…4e01backed Yes28c532.06$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes19c526.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003713.5%5 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-69.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes18c503.77$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8767841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802544%11 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c460.09$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.621,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c448.41$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Yes21c415.11$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.171225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45ac…9d09backed Yes14c392.76$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bec…7e15backed No79c391$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.66955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f33…320cbacked Yes27c372.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes16c365.06$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.41190%0 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes24c357.25$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.43812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-81.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e5…b7e6backed Yes16c349.89$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.083040%12 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x673e…eb95backed Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-71.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes34c310.67$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6342738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82a3…88d0backed Yes9c310$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4660%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes6c300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-52.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed Yes15c297.76$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.536953.6%37 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc472…ced9backed Yes14c272.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.161414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c3…00c8backed No74c267.89$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.615742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes24c250$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6015232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed Yes28c221.34$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.292544%11 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes8c216.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.899827.6%27 W · 71 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5b8…83b9backed Yes28c205.45$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c9b…b444backed No66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes26c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514240.5%17 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcc5…2276backed Yes16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ee…560dbacked Yes18c153.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60e…760abacked Yes10c140.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.09757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x253e…bf81backed Yes15c132.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd431…2105backed Yes10c125$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes36c115.14$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4223420.9%49 W · 185 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No69c113.02$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.342369.6%16 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bc0…b949backed Yes13c111.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-67.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes30c109.12$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.085855.2%32 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes33c105$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.653823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes27c104$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.931989.5%17 W · 2 L+4.6wins+0.24per pick65cpaid+34.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411531.3%36 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac7a…8a99backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3733337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-58.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf17…d849backed No62c99.3$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes33c89.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3034143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes21c85.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8531719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No77c74$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3931649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a57…f7ddbacked Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.882552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes21c54.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4626616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No69c50.85$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7618151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked Yes30c44.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.142272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+20.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No52c42.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.335328.3%15 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No79c26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.466132.8%20 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No74c20.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2210234.3%35 W · 67 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea1e…b7d5backed No75c15.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.75850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+56.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce2…d48cbacked No74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.