Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadf2f67d77b8d52e0a04a797521f7a24be1bb79e91fa7eede417ec0ff79208c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6225…bc21backed Yes | 11c | 9,246$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 16c | 3,355$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.35 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 20c | 3,299$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.94 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 75c | 3,279$2,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.16 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 3,079$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.67 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb999…8441backed Yes | 28c | 2,946$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3201…6634backed Yes | 22c | 2,932$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.63 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 2,782$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.8 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…6634backed Yes | 6c | 2,025$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 14c | 1,935$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.27 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 70c | 1,768$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.49 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 24c | 1,480$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.16 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 27c | 1,445$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.34 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 33c | 1,415$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.03 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e3…4603backed Yes | 29c | 1,356$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 14c | 1,300$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 12c | 1,223$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.63 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,166$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,110$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.71 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x750a…d86cbacked No | 62c | 1,100$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 35c | 861.91$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.63 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3c…e5dcbacked Yes | 14c | 850$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 74c | 672.41$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.98 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…19f4backed Yes | 40c | 663.64$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.75 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 69c | 646.07$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.97 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc04…5ee2backed Yes | 20c | 619.7$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked No | 73c | 566.67$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.67 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 8c | 564.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 77c | 556.16$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.94 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…ba7abacked Yes | 26c | 546.48$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 18c | 540.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76f…4e01backed Yes | 28c | 532.06$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 19c | 526.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 503.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 460.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 448.41$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Yes | 21c | 415.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ac…9d09backed Yes | 14c | 392.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…7e15backed No | 79c | 391$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…320cbacked Yes | 27c | 372.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 16c | 365.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 24c | 357.25$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…b7e6backed Yes | 16c | 349.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x673e…eb95backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 34c | 310.67$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.63 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 9c | 310$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 15c | 297.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…ced9backed Yes | 14c | 272.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed No | 74c | 267.89$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 28c | 221.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 8c | 216.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b8…83b9backed Yes | 28c | 205.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc5…2276backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…560dbacked Yes | 18c | 153.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60e…760abacked Yes | 10c | 140.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253e…bf81backed Yes | 15c | 132.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…2105backed Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 36c | 115.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 69c | 113.02$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc0…b949backed Yes | 13c | 111.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 30c | 109.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes | 27c | 104$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…8a99backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed No | 62c | 99.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 33c | 89.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 21c | 85.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a57…f7ddbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 21c | 54.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 69c | 50.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 30c | 44.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 52c | 42.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 74c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…b7d5backed No | 75c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…d48cbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.