TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6c65…3e45

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
114
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 59 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT6735.8%24 W · 43 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+43.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 67 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Squid launch a token by October 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.57
Will Squid launch a token by March 31, 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.5
Will Squid launch a token by September 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$498Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$497.96
Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.97
Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$239.36
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$519Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+74.1%+$384.79
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.04
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.75
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.15
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.36
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$271.27
Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$622Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+93.5%+$581.97
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+186.5%+$501.95
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+280.6%+$783.33
Will Citrea launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$350.99
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$5,987Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$3,083.69
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,845Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+97.5%+$2,773.64
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+156.8%+$449.37
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$919Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+83.3%+$765.2
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$497Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$496.7
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+306.2%+$57.13
Will StandX launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+106.4%+$186.8
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+837.9%+$558.94
Will Paradex launch a token by April 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$64.91
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$15.36
Showing 25 of 67 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT3043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+81.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+3,195.6%+$962.04
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.43
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$965Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$964.73
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$621Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$621.49
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.51
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.87
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$10.77
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.77
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+37.2%+$135.42
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+168.2%+$495.63
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.53
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.01
Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.1
Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.81
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.55
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$94.65
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.84
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$824Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$824.48
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$210.48
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$163.8
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+39%+$26.94
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$534Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+48.3%+$257.88
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,236Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+43.1%+$532.49
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,442Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+70.7%+$1,726.16
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$94.86
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick7cpaid+545.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+144.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump exits Iran nuclear negotiations before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$551Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$140.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.75
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.