Commodities · resolved market
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x062665fd43dd992de43e8d317ced9135252d2cbca5bacf35633e98237abd023f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 38c | 3,922$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,421.99 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked Yes | 69c | 3,222$2,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230.69 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 58c | 2,583$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.84 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 53c | 2,097$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.33 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 18c | 1,947$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.31 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.8wins | +0.48per pick | 42cpaid | +171.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 32c | 1,742$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 64c | 1,609$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.69 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 58c | 1,550$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.91 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 59c | 1,509$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.34 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…1b67backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 23c | 1,271$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.4 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 45c | 845.52$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.21 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 12c | 809$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 49c | 652.83$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.95 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 68c | 650.14$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 71c | 649.99$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.73 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…18fabacked Yes | 5c | 647.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +578%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…e0a8backed No | 35c | 599.98$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +184.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 44c | 599.51$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.47 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…3a1cbacked No | 53c | 528.18$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 13c | 523$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 7c | 500$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 52c | 400$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.6 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…0a9bbacked No | 31c | 367.57$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +170%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 24c | 359.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 23c | 351.54$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.46 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 342.44$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.62 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 36c | 331.57$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.85 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac8…6167backed No | 17c | 324.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +196.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 300.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297f…2209backed No | 26c | 287.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0831…6994backed No | 19c | 270.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.73 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 36c | 260.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 60c | 235.41$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 46c | 229$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x677c…7c9bbacked No | 22c | 219.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 25c | 214.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…1b0cbacked No | 68c | 209.71$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 77c | 202.73$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 201.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.01 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 19c | 192.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.23 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 73c | 188.39$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.09 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…509bbacked Yes | 26c | 183.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 63c | 182$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…f9c2backed Yes | 65c | 179.64$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…f572backed Yes | 26c | 176.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…3a21backed Yes | 26c | 173.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 67c | 172.35$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe39a…60e5backed Yes | 61c | 164.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8d45backed No | 68c | 164.19$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 24c | 155.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked No | 40c | 155.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e1…1b93backed No | 21c | 147.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +384.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 22c | 143.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…00aebacked Yes | 38c | 131.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…d5ebbacked Yes | 16c | 129.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb7…ae9bbacked No | 77c | 129.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Yes | 80c | 125.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 60c | 121.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 42c | 106.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 39c | 103.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…a3e0backed No | 30c | 103.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 15c | 101.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044c…6987backed No | 34c | 95.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92f…20b2backed No | 29c | 95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 87.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…dc2dbacked No | 22c | 85.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +199.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 84.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x25ef…997abacked Yes | 78c | 76.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…e14bbacked Yes | 61c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 34c | 64.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0444…a0f2backed No | 62c | 64.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 63c | 64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed No | 63c | 63.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8064…8a15backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +234.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…bb27backed No | 25c | 58.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…b0c0backed Yes | 24c | 55.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf3…5c30backed No | 60c | 54.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…3b90backed No | 37c | 53.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 71c | 50.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 41c | 48.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…d8b6backed Yes | 34c | 48.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…cd51backed Yes | 69c | 43.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657d…7fc5backed No | 31c | 43.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 55c | 42.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 73c | 39.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cf…9ac3backed No | 26c | 39.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +290.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392e…b64cbacked Yes | 71c | 36.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…ec0bbacked Yes | 72c | 32.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc310…5bc6backed Yes | 66c | 30.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…bc6fbacked Yes | 71c | 28.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…a0cbbacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?this page
- Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?Yes won
- Will fewer than 2 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.