Commodities · resolved market
Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87560f2f8315e681cf44e36d2b1e6bb52c1475f6d109976afd17e28122535eb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 36c | 2,618$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.91 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed Yes | 16c | 2,165$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +517.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 31c | 2,097$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.48 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Yes | 18c | 1,558$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.2 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.8wins | +0.48per pick | 42cpaid | +171.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 26c | 1,475$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.64 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 15c | 1,309$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 11c | 933$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +482.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 11c | 897$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 37c | 833.47$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.18 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 12c | 678$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +212.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 6c | 666.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.33 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 51c | 599.51$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.05 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked Yes | 73c | 594.98$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.22 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes | 11c | 580$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +250.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…18fabacked No | 3c | 519.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +578%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 64c | 431.48$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.55 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 50c | 375.17$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.29 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 73c | 360.63$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 53c | 355.07$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.54 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 5c | 319.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.98 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…15c6backed Yes | 67c | 296.81$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 10c | 234.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.5 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed Yes | 18c | 218.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.74 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 75c | 213.49$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…e8e7backed Yes | 74c | 209.95$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…3a21backed Yes | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 40c | 180.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 179.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 179$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 40c | 168.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 26c | 161.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 57c | 159.96$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 134.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes | 14c | 126.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.46 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +7.2wins | +0.32per pick | 42cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x54c7…59cfbacked Yes | 50c | 122.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…0a9bbacked Yes | 46c | 120.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +170%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x000c…4375backed Yes | 25c | 119.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +297.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 56c | 117.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e18…c8b5backed No | 41c | 115.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 27c | 113.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed No | 11c | 110.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 20c | 102.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…4d3fbacked Yes | 74c | 102.16$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 36c | 100.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ca…46c8backed No | 27c | 99.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed No | 33c | 93.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…4c4cbacked Yes | 33c | 91.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60da…ae16backed Yes | 20c | 89.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 24c | 84.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…f0fabacked No | 62c | 80.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 75.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0f…52e3backed No | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…3b3abacked No | 80c | 71.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 71.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…f9c2backed No | 80c | 66.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…8ae9backed Yes | 21c | 61.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 33c | 60.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…c1d7backed Yes | 35c | 59.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 27c | 48.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 25c | 48.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 48.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…6f63backed Yes | 29c | 47.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +162.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…835dbacked Yes | 65c | 46.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +132%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 44.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 62c | 42.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 73c | 39.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0403…a10cbacked Yes | 34c | 38.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7158…7310backed Yes | 76c | 33.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf418…b2ccbacked No | 52c | 30.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…4563backed Yes | 74c | 29.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 42c | 28.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…0acabacked Yes | 73c | 23.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…0353backed Yes | 73c | 22.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 54c | 21.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f9…50c2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?this page
- Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will fewer than 2 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.