Commodities · resolved market
Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x117efde231aa15cd6969872213159ab3593d4852b3a85a5ea7343ad36eac22a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c56…28fcbacked Yes | 4c | 2,631$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 17c | 2,249$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.26 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed No | 72c | 2,101$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,710$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 12c | 1,595$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.77 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,462$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 22c | 1,403$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,294$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.22 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed Yes | 22c | 1,267$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,247$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 17c | 1,200$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 18c | 1,009$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 27c | 991$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked No | 78c | 980$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 78c | 951$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed No | 78c | 934$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed Yes | 28c | 851$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 78c | 636$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 78c | 631$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…99aabacked Yes | 28c | 513$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 28c | 460$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.61 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…f295backed Yes | 17c | 454.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 25c | 436.1$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 77c | 355$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 268.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…ceb2backed Yes | 41c | 243.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 17c | 241.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 17c | 231.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 39c | 230$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 24c | 227.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…75f7backed Yes | 5c | 210.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 16c | 195.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 32c | 193.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 23c | 177$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 26c | 156.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 39c | 108.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…197abacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 58c | 89.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 68c | 84.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 74cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 62c | 80.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…ef31backed Yes | 32c | 77.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed No | 72c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…366bbacked No | 68c | 60.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 25c | 60.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 67c | 59.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed No | 59c | 59.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2046…587abacked No | 65c | 58.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc992…7994backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 23c | 54.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 52.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…7931backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…5efcbacked Yes | 30c | 40.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3153…1b56backed No | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8e…37f5backed No | 70c | 30.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 79c | 15.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?this page
- Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?Yes won
- Will fewer than 2 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.