TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc326…1db1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
528
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NFL, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 60 out of 100; worst Movies at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AIlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT25837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 258 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$24.5
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$617Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$616.86
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$353.03
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.57
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.55
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$261.87
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.61
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.79
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.63
Grok 4.4 released by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+78%+$217.68
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+125.6%+$167
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$39
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$830Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+249.8%+$2,073.58
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+95.5%+$124.58
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.1
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$9,934Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+30.5%+$3,028.53
Will any AI model reach 1530 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.98
Will Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+75.9%+$52.23
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$509Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$171.85
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+107.5%+$286.86
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$300.98
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$135.09
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,067Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,067.36
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.03
Showing 25 of 258 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT10558.1%61 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 105 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.5
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+85.1%+$30.09
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.36
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.42
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.17
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+60.2%+$120.28
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$544Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+57.3%+$311.62
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,323Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+52%+$687.33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+95.3%+$268.4
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+299.4%+$824.6
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$84
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$505Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$505
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.8
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$129.5
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$6,354Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$1,810.67
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+63.6%+$137.35
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+34.4%+$62.25
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.1
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,063Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,062.59
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+46.8%+$106.81
Showing 25 of 105 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT4170.7%29 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Commodities — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$25
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+119.4%+$248.99
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+68.6%+$81.34
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+119.6%+$104.13
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$887Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+64%+$567.66
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$120.93
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,177Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+68.5%+$806.42
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$684Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+60.6%+$414.55
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,040Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+32.1%+$333.62
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$851Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+32.4%+$275.91
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$9.46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$494Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+54.8%+$270.4
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$394Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+42.5%+$167.48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$844Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$843.65
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,547Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,546.57
Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.61
Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.8
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$987Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+40.9%+$403.34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,275Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,274.99
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$484Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$484.07
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,273Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$410.42
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,266Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+60.3%+$763.75
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,290Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+61.8%+$797.72
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$246
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.7
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$588Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+41.5%+$244.05
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.8
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+216.5%+$122.54
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+186.5%+$71.6
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.32
World Cup: Scoreless Team?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+25%+$10.1
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$10,698Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$6,560.46
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$68
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+38.1%+$57.4
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$389Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+97.9%+$380.64
All 14 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+87.4%+$9.24
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.75
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$181.92
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$67.35
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+251.4%+$225.35
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+45.6%+$4.7
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$106.57
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$58.5
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+42.5%+$59.65
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+109.6%+$34.57
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+45.9%+$62.91
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+349.3%+$422.99
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$25.1
All 14 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-53.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Lol — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.88
Will Gen.G win First Stand 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$629Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$629.39
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$138
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group Abacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$89
LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 2 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$174
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group Abacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+181.7%+$129
Will Bilibili Gaming Gaming win the LPL 2026 Split 1 playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+79.6%+$66.5
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 Split 1 playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$15.86
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$78.37
Will Karmine Corp win the LEC 2026 Versus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$86.46
Will G2 Esports win the LEC 2026 Versus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$547Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+46.3%+$253.49
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffsbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$303.6
LoL: paiN Gaming vs LOUD (BO1)backed paiN Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$21.8
All 13 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick62cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
NFL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$371Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$371.29
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+44.9%+$130.25
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+27.4%+$37
Will Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+69.2%+$54.62
Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+66.8%+$165.7
Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+122.3%+$232.79
Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+64%+$22.79
Will Gemini run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+36.8%+$13.45
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+70.9%+$41.5
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$908Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+57.4%+$521.43
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+25.7%+$46.43
All 11 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-63.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$161.47
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.91
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+112.1%+$102.8
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$109
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$188.1
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+56.3%+$102.11
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$157.02
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$169.77
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$57.66
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$16.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$747Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$747.08
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$422Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+41.1%+$173.3
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$21.42
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$416Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+122.9%+$511.52
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.08
Will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.54
Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$818Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$818.37
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$218.89
All 8 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonsecabacked Jakub Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$130
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$184.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+139.4%+$26.2
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.56
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+900%+$90
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.