TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LOUDof LYON, LOUD
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,348,443

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,348,443 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 549 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52ec…a6f3backed LOUD58c52,891$30,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,991.4481143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked LOUD31c50,252$15,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,876.1725751%131 W · 126 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed LOUD20c41,520$8,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,242.741,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed LOUD36c26,219$9,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,812.841,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed LYON0c24,318$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7223915.9%38 W · 201 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+53.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked LYON79c21,952$17,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,427.0990348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed LYON27c17,817$4,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,867.6135448.6%172 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed LOUD28c15,483$4,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,147.6911645.7%53 W · 63 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked LOUD21c14,371$3,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,352.9731328.8%90 W · 223 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe795…8caebacked LOUD25c13,754$3,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,305.6420354.7%111 W · 92 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked LOUD78c12,980$10,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,866.1544550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed LYON6c12,565$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.623775.6%21 W · 356 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed LYON68c12,094$8,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,248.2328361.5%174 W · 109 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd812…2558backed LOUD25c12,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,999.9921137%78 W · 133 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed LOUD31c11,424$3,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,885.241,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed LOUD38c10,976$4,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,801.7822624.8%56 W · 170 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed LOUD24c10,343$2,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,877.2123020%46 W · 184 L-17.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked LYON25c10,305$2,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.4719648%94 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e5…337ebacked LYON72c10,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,2004151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed LYON73c9,823$7,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,150.1739749.1%195 W · 202 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8247…ee42backed LYON64c9,712$6,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,249.6110960.6%66 W · 43 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed LOUD76c8,919$6,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,134.8867276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked LOUD21c8,536$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,735.8214835.1%52 W · 96 L-9.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed LOUD30c8,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,599.9816454.9%90 W · 74 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed LYON55c7,910$4,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,365.823,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked LYON75c7,747$5,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,792.451,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked LOUD29c7,079$2,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,026.122,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed LOUD28c7,008$1,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,079.9828827.4%79 W · 209 L-30.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked LYON70c6,879$4,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,822.551,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d78…29a5backed LOUD78c6,876$5,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.728651.2%44 W · 42 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed LYON80c6,813$5,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,429.571,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed LOUD48c6,779$3,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,514.2718451.6%95 W · 89 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bdd…23dcbacked LYON68c6,486$4,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,410.2917163.2%108 W · 63 L+18.6wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked LYON37c6,312$2,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,321.3153640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed LYON61c6,000$3,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,657.881,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed LYON55c5,763$3,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,169.6526246.6%122 W · 140 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked LYON72c5,384$3,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,889.649053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed LYON48c5,362$2,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,590.1948157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed LYON27c5,220$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.6925446.1%117 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed LYON80c5,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00054756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4448…0c03backed LYON65c5,000$3,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,252.162650%13 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2c9…a644backed LYON77c5,000$3,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,845.141668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed LYON72c5,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.9982352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked LOUD62c4,895$3,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.6559952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed LYON39c4,796$1,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,868.9242050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked LOUD28c4,732$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,405.331,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed LYON75c4,692$3,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,518.9831153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce0…6599backed LYON2c4,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick3cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked LOUD28c4,500$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,259.9850848.4%246 W · 262 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked LOUD30c4,438$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,110.446297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9194…2ee1backed LYON32c4,329$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.111540%6 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf33c…4c38backed LOUD51c4,000$2,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,977.5424065%156 W · 84 L+24.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc926…8058backed LYON69c3,980$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,760.3125560.8%155 W · 100 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed LYON40c3,979$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60048533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked LOUD44c3,946$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,228.351,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb17a…c30dbacked LYON45c3,921$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,775.124445.5%20 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed LYON77c3,864$2,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,987.121,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed LYON48c3,802$1,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,815.9949549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed LOUD32c3,579$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,426.7185442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0e…bf45backed LYON49c3,559$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7504238.1%16 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked LYON28c3,509$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00061045.2%276 W · 334 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed LOUD31c3,481$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,406.828944.9%40 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed LYON26c3,344$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.1139851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed LOUD66c3,341$2,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.7276953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked LOUD74c3,340$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.8813040.8%53 W · 77 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked LYON75c3,300$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4752,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf030…12e2backed LYON42c3,290$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.6913371.4%95 W · 38 L+23.5wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed LOUD41c3,230$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,907.0269756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed LYON66c3,200$2,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,125.9171249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked LYON79c3,066$2,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,42270456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked LYON55c3,005$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.081,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f6…8160backed LYON71c3,000$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1301346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed LYON8c2,952$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.181,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed LYON71c2,919$2,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,072.214864.6%31 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked LYON30c2,845$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.262,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c67…9896backed LYON51c2,800$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.150646%233 W · 273 L+2.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked LYON71c2,782$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,975.0770162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed LYON79c2,500$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,97510044%44 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed LYON23c2,500$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.863546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed LYON70c2,475$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735.751,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked LOUD74c2,467$1,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.341,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed LOUD38c2,327$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.3539447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked LYON71c2,300$1,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.341,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ef…3973backed LYON1c2,300$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick1cpaid+915.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed LYON66c2,248$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.0512844.5%57 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed LOUD32c2,100$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.9819839.9%79 W · 119 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked LYON66c2,076$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.361,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed LYON59c2,075$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.512,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed LOUD29c2,034$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.4839239%153 W · 239 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed LOUD20c2,015$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,606.012,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked LYON72c2,007$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.065160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf1c…edf1backed LYON72c2,006$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed LYON64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28024240.9%99 W · 143 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde0c…a715backed LYON71c2,000$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.2925269.8%176 W · 76 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed LYON1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed LYON53c1,992$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05079151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked LYON45c1,900$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8505928.8%17 W · 42 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-34.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed LYON50c1,800$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90642148.2%203 W · 218 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed LYON72c1,800$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.9739750.1%199 W · 198 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafa2…e45cbacked LOUD31c1,735$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.143043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.