TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe2c9…a644

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst Dota2 at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT1668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$7,980Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$4,019.98
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,132.01
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$4,652Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+33.2%+$1,545.95
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,190Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$810
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$9,356Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+60.3%+$5,644.07
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$5,080Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,079.98
LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 3 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,600Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+34.9%+$907.58
LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 2 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,845Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,845.14
LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 1 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$382Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$118
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$7,656Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$2,044.5
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,490Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$910
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,475Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+35.6%+$525
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+37%+$81
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$6,582Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$2,418.05
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,460Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,460.19
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$72
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,765Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$1,235
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$500
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$497Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$291.86
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$335Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$165
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$799.98
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,365Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$635.06
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,560Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$440
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$114
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+47.9%+$162.01
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$175
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+156.4%+$183
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,460Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,459.99
Will the US seize an Iran-linked tanker by Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$1,101
All 14 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Pistons (-14.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+78.8%+$44.08
Pistons vs. Nets: O/U 216.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$47.97
Grizzlies vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+56.5%+$36.1
Lakers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,495Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+33.8%+$505
All 4 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Power Rangers (BO3) - CCT Playoffsbacked Power Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+553.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+553.6%+$1,693.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$4,362Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+106.4%+$4,638.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US Lecce win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$720Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$280.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+38.6%+$16.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinalsbacked Louisville Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$1,107
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$750
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.