TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US seize an Iran-linked tanker by Feb 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$145,258
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,921

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,258 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52b0…4d24backed Yes29c10,379$2,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,393.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+247.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No58c9,857$5,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,711.58359%49 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No71c8,696$6,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,206.5835347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd873…2255backed No0c6,515$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.875127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa518…5b53backed No1c5,240$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No25c4,897$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.3945843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a1…17e1backed No1c4,096$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a37…ca5bbacked No3c3,254$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18d4…af03backed No16c2,964$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed5a…c744backed Yes60c2,888$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.22040%8 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed Yes73c2,180$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.1721160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No28c2,096$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.085532.7%18 W · 37 L-16.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-53.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfdaa…43eabacked No2c2,040$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55e1…772fbacked No6c1,764$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No36c1,667$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.4811615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e44…edabbacked No2c1,540$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick5cpaid-46.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c1,502$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.641,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2c9…a644backed No73c1,500$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1011457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes18c1,424$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.3820247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No8c1,346$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.884928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x665e…57babacked No4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7319…0b5abacked No2c1,214$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9017…9cc9backed No6c1,036$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes28c994.98$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.8356336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf97f…23c3backed No21c992.36$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.141861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes77c948.09$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.8540939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d51…6f1fbacked Yes77c916.77$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.763850%19 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefab…b927backed No14c899.75$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.923839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90d9…973ebacked No3c869.11$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaadc…d8efbacked No47c762$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.466636.4%24 W · 42 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x768f…c7bdbacked No38c600$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2257856.4%44 W · 34 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xceca…3f67backed No75c566.99$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.964348.8%21 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No17c535.4$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2658927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed No65c506.1$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.7710333%34 W · 69 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked No5c477.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.893112.9%4 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-71.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No34c451.48$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.249942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No10c426.94$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6112918.6%24 W · 105 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x63b3…cf7dbacked No65c417.61$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.11616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick59cpaid-77%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.34625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes37c392.75$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.085922%13 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab0f…3decbacked No3c368.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb6…7a11backed No66c361.68$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes55c356.42$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.8915951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae29…1c87backed No64c341.12$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+37.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes33c329.59$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.2118833.5%63 W · 125 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf041…dde5backed No68c328.62$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.182347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick55cpaid+93.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes69c327.01$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3635652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x976e…0aa8backed No8c318.73$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-63.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ff…9f4abacked No7c302.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No37c300.8$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2616648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.47135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86d6…8a05backed Yes31c299.99$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2072050%10 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+143.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd3ce…618dbacked No52c299.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.251861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No17c299.52$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9821333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda9e…ac09backed Yes73c270.39$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.045151%26 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed No14c263.55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9415023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd175…bb3abacked No78c255.48$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick70cpaid-21.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6bc7…4ad4backed No16c255.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4013348.1%64 W · 69 L+20.7wins+0.16per pick33cpaid+143.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0d7a…95a2backed No14c250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351275%9 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+28.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No59c230.86$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6385725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xbd50…4eb6backed No5c226.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No17c225.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked No5c220$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3622227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No57c207.12$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.067038.6%27 W · 43 L-10.3wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-31%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked No67c200$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13416743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed No73c200$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1465463%34 W · 20 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6d1…21c7backed No55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27db…af68backed Yes22c199.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.997428.4%21 W · 53 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4616…66e6backed No33c197.63$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.944445.5%20 W · 24 L+8.0wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+109.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4c58…13b9backed No55c186.68$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028655.8%48 W · 38 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x483a…8832backed No25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No8c153.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6442329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d42…8fbbbacked Yes79c140.36$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4811856.8%67 W · 51 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked No74c134.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008031.3%25 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes77c115.3$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.529353.8%50 W · 43 L+12.3wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+34.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes77c114.28$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4314940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb56d…d20bbacked Yes50c110$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.14072.5%29 W · 11 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655639.3%22 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa3e…3b79backed No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ff…59d3backed No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6730%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x252f…bfc1backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc997…5184backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…e4abbacked Yes39c97.37$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.444100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+176.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7a9…c840backed No74c95.66$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.515644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+68.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No29c93.15$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.479739.2%38 W · 59 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cd4…0796backed Yes35c85.16$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.162020%4 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+148.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed No22c85.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.683043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa21…c733backed No72c83.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60616.7%1 W · 5 L-3.1wins-0.52per pick68cpaid-62.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2a34…905fbacked No24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+139.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ca…e25abacked No66c82.88$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No14c81.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.388132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65d8…bac6backed Yes19c74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.941060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+54.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d16…9f6cbacked No80c70$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56580%4 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5501…f903backed No69c69.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes31c64.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.694124.4%10 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x739a…f180backed Yes74c57.68$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No64c55.56$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5621531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x972d…99aabacked Yes36c55.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a9b…93cdbacked No74c54.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed No20c53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.821154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+23.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.