TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd5b9…e44e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
1,035
Categories scored
33
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: AI, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category AI at 57 out of 100; worst Lol at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT20247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 202 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,176Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+134.1%+$1,577.31
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$780
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$95.05
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$295.98
Kurds declare independence from Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$455Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$244.98
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$360
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.04
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$268
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$419.99
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$639Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$261
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$396Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$204
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$487.21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$316
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$290
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+77.3%+$261.6
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$440Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$360
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$26.23
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$650
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$599.99
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$593Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$593.49
Showing 25 of 202 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT17226.7%46 W · 126 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 172 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla say "China" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+939.7%+$686.01
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$142
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$279.99
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+351.1%+$466.99
Will Asana (ASAN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$61.98
Will Deere (DE) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$89
Will Kohls (KSS) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+56.3%+$72
Will Woodward (WWD) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$44
Will StoneX Group (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$147.72
Will Semtech (SMTC) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$109.1
Will BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$67
Will Intuit (INTU) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$114
Will The Gap (GAP) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$74.72
Will Bath & Body Works (BBWI) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+677.8%+$609.97
Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$200.48
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$145.07
Will Bullish (BLSH) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+88.7%+$140.99
Will AECOM (ACM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$116.19
Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will Quantum Computing (QUBT) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+350.9%+$574.67
Will Newsmax (NMAX) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+170.3%+$251.99
Will Applied Materials (AMAT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$63.98
Will Bitcoin Depot (BTM) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$372.92
Will The Walt Disney Company (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$12.42
Showing 25 of 172 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT14250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 142 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.92
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.87
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$522Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+113.8%+$594.15
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+300%+$330
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,403Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+44.1%+$619.3
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$392.78
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+112.7%+$347.92
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+146.6%+$727.51
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,499Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,499
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$271
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,382Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,382.14
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$485Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$485.42
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$244.8
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+51.3%+$61.95
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$407.26
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$73.66
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$60.31
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$122.29
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$439Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$126.05
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$308.38
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$303.74
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Showing 25 of 142 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT12545.6%57 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 125 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$640Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+373.5%+$2,390.26
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$170
Epstein "I beat Bush" Email unredacted by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$69.19
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+269.9%+$1,484.48
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+104.7%+$309.42
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$599.81
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$794Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$793.52
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$72
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$659Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$659.14
Panick in the White Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+108.3%+$75.25
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.25
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.3
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$164
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$57.5
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$206.12
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+47.1%+$32
Will Trump say "Cuomo" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+44.9%+$4.65
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$188
Will more than 2.8 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day by November 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+81.8%+$90
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 125 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT6741.8%28 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 67 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$109.13
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$812Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+54.7%+$444.13
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$53.09
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.64
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$355Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$355
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$474Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+53.3%+$252.42
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$53.06
US downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.99
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$592Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+56.8%+$336.2
Kang Sun-woo in jail by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$88
Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+88.7%+$47
US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$587Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+36.3%+$213
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$134
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$75
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$18.65
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45.89
Choo Kyung-ho in jail by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$231
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+85.2%+$46.85
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$67.05
Hwang Kyo-ahn in jail by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$80.62
Oh Se-hoon in jail by November 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$25
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$53.42
Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$638Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+50.6%+$322.81
Showing 25 of 67 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT4942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$177
Will Putin visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+113.9%+$592.24
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+1,150%+$828
U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$218
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$96
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$242.5
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+400%+$160
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$26.35
Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$34
Will Donald Trump say "hell" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$42
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+31.6%+$12
Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+75.4%+$15.09
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$152.38
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$250.42
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$122.75
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 15%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+85.2%+$97.96
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$27.05
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+45.8%+$31.4
Russia strike on Kyiv by November 30, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$137
More EU sanctions on Russia by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+36.8%+$97.55
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+31.3%+$113.68
Another NATO article 4 by October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+345.9%+$81.45
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4151.2%21 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$51.67
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$229.4
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$235
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+35.6%+$35.59
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+45.5%+$31.74
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$65.29
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$245.16
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$465Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$535
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.32
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$18.85
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$111.29
Will France win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$13.81
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$15.32
Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$19.74
Paraguay vs. France: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$18.39
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Germany to score first vs. Paraguay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+25%+$80.75
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$31.9
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT3345.5%15 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$754Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$246
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$23.44
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$449.7
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$430Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+218.5%+$938.52
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$335.1
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+211.6%+$1,057.16
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+59.4%+$47.49
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$639Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$639.36
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$84.14
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$98
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+76.4%+$278.57
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+42.9%+$30
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$205
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+27.7%+$65
Will Lisa Cook vote at the next FOMC meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$14
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.2
Trump announces Lisa Cook replacement by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT+81.6%+$62.9
Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST3161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$367
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+100%+$19
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+51.5%+$68
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$178
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+155.1%+$472.22
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$537Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+94.2%+$506.01
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,544Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+50.2%+$775.51
Will Donald Trump say "Maria" or "Corina" or "Machado" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+33.3%+$52.33
Will Donald Trump say "CIA" or "FBI" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$46.59
Will Donald Trump say "Cuba" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+143.9%+$43.17
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$411Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+135.6%+$557.81
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$366Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+77.6%+$284
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$481.39
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+53%+$35
Will Trump say "Secretary of War" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+488.2%+$78.11
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+55.4%+$16.08
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+68.6%+$124.31
Odds of US x Venezuela Military Engagement in 2025 Over 50% by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$32
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+38.9%+$42
Odds of US x Venezuela Military Engagement in 2025 Under 40% by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,525Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+25.8%+$393.98
Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 50%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$93
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$426Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$425.9
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$101.77
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT2245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,337Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+185%+$2,472.79
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$630.4
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.86
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$759Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$759
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.79
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+83.1%+$411.8
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$462Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$461.64
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$395
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+93.8%+$534.34
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$116
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+147.4%+$810.33
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$292.24
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$539Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+117.3%+$631.66
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$87
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,105Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+46%+$1,429.59
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,067Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+35.9%+$741.67
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.98
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.99
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$55.4
Will Medline's market cap be between $35B and $45B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$59
Will Medline's market cap be between $45B and $55B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 22 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT2055%11 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye tweet again by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$155
Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$56.1
D4vd arrested by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+70.9%+$150.93
Will Drake release an album by October 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.75
Will Taylor Swift release a new original song by October 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+127.7%+$364.56
D4vd arrested by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+96.9%+$90.7
Sabrina Carpenter's 'Man's Best Friend' >375k first week sales?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+206.4%+$185.24
Will Drake release an album by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.29
Will Drake donate to MrBeast's Team Water by August 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+112.7%+$114.44
Will Vienna host Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.98
Will Drake release an album by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Travis Scott's album 'JACKBOYS 2' have over 250k sales in its first week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will Justin Bieber's album "SWAG" debut at #1 in its first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$243.25
Will Justin Bieber's album 'SWAG' have over 150k sales in its first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT+37.1%+$93.1
Diddy guilty of all charges?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.09
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+38.4%+$21.1
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+35.4%+$14.14
Will Greece finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$8.81
Will Finland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$8
All 20 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,430Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+51.9%+$742.4
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$107.69
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$156
Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$174.3
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$58
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+88.7%+$50.54
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+29.3%+$68
Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$17.5
Democratic sweep?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+28.2%+$11
Will Obama endorse Mamdani?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+72.4%+$27.3
Will Chuck Schumer endorse Mamdani?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$114
Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$65.22
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.75
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+38.9%+$5.83
All 15 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$939Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+70.5%+$661.69
Megaquake by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$136
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Another 5.0 or above earthquake in Greece by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$67
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$98
Megaquake before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.31
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$37.5
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+150%+$35.99
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+98.8%+$57.7
Earthquake 7.0 or above in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.7
Another Earthquake 7.0 or above in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.94
Earthquake 7.0 or above in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$30.39
All 13 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2025, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-64.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gen.G win the 2025 League of Legends Esports World Cup Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+111.7%+$114.3
League of Legends: T1 vs. AG.ALbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. G2backed Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.58
League of Legends: Hanwha Life vs. AG.ALbacked Hanwha Life · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.19
League of Legends: FURIA vs. FlyQuestbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.1
League of Legends: Movistar KOI vs. CTBC Flying Oysterbacked CTBC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.5
League of Legends: Cloud9 vs. FURIAbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.35
League of Legends: CTBC Flying Oyster vs. GAMbacked GAM · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.7
League of Legends: G2 Esports vs. FlyQuestbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+111.8%+$58.58
League of Legends: G2 vs. FURIAbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.6
League of Legends: Movistar KOI vs. GAMbacked GAM · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.4
League of Legends: CTBC Flying Oyster vs. Hanwha Life backed CTBC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.25
All 12 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$414.29
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+253.3%+$620.36
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$441Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+124.9%+$550.92
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$399.99
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$626Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+140.1%+$877.03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$569Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+150.2%+$854.69
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.31
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,079Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,078.99
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST1040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$433Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$433.28
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$536Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$536.49
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,156Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+30.6%+$353.69
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,445Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+80.3%+$1,160.61
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$167.08
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$589Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+78.8%+$464.24
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$22.27
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$23.5
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+28%+$87.6
Bill Ackman tweets another manifesto by Wednesday? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 10 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$18.9
Will Karol G perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+122.2%+$51.33
Will Bad Bunny perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+122.2%+$27.5
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$62
Will Jaxson Dart get drafted in the First Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Will Donald Trump say "China" 3+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+44.9%+$6.2
Will Donald Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+47.1%+$6.4
Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$37.3
Will Donald Trump say "Israel" during Super Bowl pregame interview?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$31.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have 12 or more launches in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+96.1%+$98
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$540.22
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$366.99
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.21
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$148.18
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$133
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.75
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT+33.8%+$102.71
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 9 achieve a sucessful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT+174.8%+$94.42
All 9 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-44.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+141.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Poker — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick32cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Groningen win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by August 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.